天然ガス
The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.
Europe’s domestic economy continues to surprise to the upside, can small-cap stocks do the same?
Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.
The European Commission risks retarding the development of long-term contracting for renewable energy just as momentum is building. Policy uncertainty will continue to dog firms and households in the EU, if the Commission's attempts to lower energy costs for consumers at the expense of renewable-energy producers by extending “windfall profits taxes” and mandated lower costs succeed. Such measures will lower producers’ revenues, which will translate into lower renewables investment.
Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey, and emerging Europe. Stick with aerospace/defense stocks.
Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey, and emerging Europe. Stick with aerospace/defense stocks.
In this <i>Strategy Outlook</i>, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.
We are revising our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $90/bbl, expecting December front-line Brent to average $85/bbl. On the back of this early weakness, we are lowering our 2023 forecast slightly to $115/bbl, with an upside bias, anticipating a successful – if chaotic – re-opening in China beginning in 1Q23. Our expectations for copper trading above $4.00/lb in 1Q23 and above $4.50/lb in 2H23 stand.
Falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. As such, we recommend that investors shift their duration stance from underweight to neutral over a 12 month-and-longer horizon and to overweight over a 6-month horizon. Structurally, however, a depletion of the global savings glut could put upward pressure on yields.
Despite uncertainty and intrusive government policy, natural gas and oil markets have managed to direct much-needed supplies to Europe going into winter. Natgas markets attracted massive LNG inflows – at a cost of record-high prices – that now leave the continent’s on-land storage close to full. A floating LNG market now exists on Europe’s Atlantic Coast – made possible by spot prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility trading ~ 40% below 1Q23 futures. The TTF futures contango market structure allows unsold cargoes to be stored on vessels off the coast of Europe until needed this winter via hedging (e.g., buy spot, sell 2- to 3-month-forward futures to lock in storage costs). This expands storage for the continent, leaving the EU in much better shape to weather the loss of Russian pipeline gas.