大中華

The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession. Investors should underweight stocks and overweight Treasuries.

China has become less reliant on exports to advanced economies, and its products have successfully penetrated developing economies. Exports to the US make up 3% of Chinese GDP, while exports to all developing economies account for 10% of its GDP. China’s trade pivot from advanced to developing economies has economic, political, and geopolitical ramifications.

多国籍企業はサプライチェーンを中国以外へ拡大しようとしているが、移転プロセスは予想より遅れている。しかし今後数年で、地政学的緊張、中国のビジネス環境の変化、そして中国の生産者からの競争激化が、多国籍企業の中国からの撤退を加速させる可能性がある。