先進国

特別レポート

The Nifty Fifty bull market of the early seventies was a mania in which investors got carried away chasing after a subset of prized growth stocks. While we do not think the Magnificent Seven stocks are in a bubble, they do have some parallels with the growth stars of 50 years ago.

1 年 1 年間 ago

Essentials

US Durable Goods Stagnate In August

Preliminary estimates suggested that US durable goods orders stagnated in August after having surged 9.9% m/m in July, and beating expectations they would decline. Excluding the volatile transportation component, however, durable goods grew a robust 0.5%. …

1 年 1 年間 ago

Essentials

The Eurozone’s Bright Spots

  Our expectation that a looming US recession will morph into a global recession remains intact. US monetary easing will only take effect with a lag and current deteriorating economic conditions are the product of past easing. Meanwhile, China’s…

1 年 1 年間 ago

Essentials

Easier Financial Conditions Won’t Prevent Labor Demand Deterioration

US financial conditions have become noticeably easier since August. The Fed has embarked on its easing cycle with a bang, sending equities higher and spreads lower, while the trade-weighted dollar gave back more than half of its year-to-date gains. The…

1 年 1 年間 ago

CoreMacro

Fourth Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Soft Landing Or Quicksand?

After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession to start in the US within the next six months. Accordingly, we recommend that investors underweight stocks and overweight government bonds.

1 年 1 年間 ago

Global

Essentials

Consumer Income And Spending Consistent With Broad Cooling

US nominal personal income growth decelerated to a 0.2% pace in August, from 0.3% in July, missing expectations that it would accelerate. Nominal personal spending also disappointed, growing at a slower 0.2% pace from 0.5%. In real terms, spending barely…

1 年 1 年間 ago

Essentials

Services Inflation Still Too High For October ECB Cut

France’s and Spain’s preliminary September CPI readings declined on a month-on-month basis, clocking in at 1.5% and 1.7% y/y respectively, and undershooting consensus expectations. Germany’s and Italy’s updates are due on Monday and the Eurozone CPI will be…

1 年 1 年間 ago

Essentials

Downtrend In Savings Rate Gets Revised Away

Annual BEA data revisions resulted in a significant upward revision in GDP growth since Q2 2020, led by stronger consumption growth and more robust real disposable income growth than previously believed. Revisions also show that the savings rate has been…

1 年 1 年間 ago

Essentials

European Assets After The Politburo Shock

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the surprise fiscal announcement from China’s Politburo is a very different animal from previous stimulus attempts. Although the details are still vague, it adopts a much more pragmatic tone…

1 年 1 年間 ago

FICC

Can Lower Rates Save The Economy?

We consider the possibility that lower interest rates could lead to an increase in household borrowing, prolonging the economic recovery.

1 年 1 年間 ago

Bonds

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