先進国
Based on the Goldman Sachs index, financial conditions in the US are the easiest they have been in the history of the series, which dates back to 1981. Our own proprietary measure of US financial conditions is sending a similar message as it stands one…
In a recent publication, BCA Research’s US Investment Strategists argued that the US economy is in a “Goldilocks” scenario where economic growth is strong and policy is easy. This state is accompanied by two tail risks: the too-cold left tail where growth is…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends investors remain underweight MBS within a US bond portfolio, but favor 4% and 4.5% coupons over 2%, 2.5% and 3% coupons within the Agency MBS coupon stack. Agency MBS have not performed well since bond…
パッケージング株は買い
パッケージング株は買い
オーバーウェイト
S&P コンテナ&パッケージング指数は投資家のレーダーにあまり入らないことが多いが、好調なグローバル・マクロ環境はオーバーウェイトの姿勢を正当化している。これらの見過ごされがちな素材関連株は、パンデミックによるECブームがさらに悪化させたコンテナボードやその他のパッケージング材料に対する旺盛な需要により、価格決定力の上昇の恩恵を受ける銘柄群である。
すでに、小売業の需要を測りコンテナ＆パッケージングメーカーの利益と互角に渡り合う指標であるインターモーダル鉄道の貨車輸送量は、現水準からの大きな上振れを示唆している（中央パネル）。同様に、米国のさまざまな貨物業界の健全性を追跡するCASS フレイト指数も急騰しており、相対的な利益が年後半に回復することを裏付けている（下段パネル）。
セクター別の営業データも引き締まってきている。今週の月曜日のストラテジー・レポートで示したように、コンテナ&パッケージングの生産者物価と雇用には大きな乖離があり、前者が後者を上回っている。これにより、収益のより大きな割合が最終損益に到達し、相対的な株価を押し上げることが示唆される。
結論: 我々はS&P コンテナ&パッケージング指数に対するオーバーウェイト姿勢を再確認する。この指数に含まれる銘柄のティッカーシンボルは次の通りである：BLBG: S5CONP– WRK, SEE, IP, AVY, BLL, PKG, AMCR.
This is an important week for Canadian financial markets, full of implications for the future path of economic growth, monetary policy, interest rates and the currency. The week started off with a booming data point. Canadian housing starts rose an…
Ultra-easy monetary policy combined with extremely stimulative fiscal policy have created a fertile environment for stocks to outperform bonds over a 12-month horizon. However, random deflationary shocks along the way are bound to occur, which will cause…
Global equities tumbled on Tuesday, as the global reflation narrative was once again tested. The S&P 500 slipped nearly 0.7 percent, driven lower by highly cyclical sectors such as energy, financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials.…
The UK jobs report showed tentative signs of stabilization in the British labor market in March. Jobless claims rose by 10.1 thousand versus a revised 67.3 thousand increase in the prior month, and the claimant rate remained flat at February's revised 7.3%.…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service concludes that the cyclical rise in yields is not over yet. The overall flow of US economic data has been disappointing versus elevated expectations, as evidenced by the almost uninterrupted decline in…
US equity market euphoria got a jab in the arm yesterday and started to test the resolve of late-comers to the rally. While the self-reinforcing cycle of ultra loose financial conditions along with easy fiscal and monetary policies will continue to underpin markets on a cyclical time horizon, any let up in the near-term in any of these buoyant macro forces can have far reaching effects, especially given lofty valuations and rising complacency. Thus, we remain cautious in the short-term. Not only is this market in a desperate need of a breather given that it once again sits two standard deviations above the 20-month moving average (top panel) – a technical signal that allowed us to caution clients of extreme overbought conditions right before the September 2nd correction – but also a number of other factors are waving yellow flags. First, the US smart money flow index is revealing the fragility hidden beneath the SPX surface. The divergence between this index and the S&P 500 is reminiscent of the 2018 “Volmageddon” correction (third panel). Second, the total US equity call / put ratio is significantly diverging with equity prices, likely as a result of both smart money hedging their longs (second panel) and retail call buying frenzy going on a hiatus. Finally, our US Equity Internal Dynamics Indicator also ticked down of late cementing the argument that, for now, equities are fully priced as we posited in yesterday’s Strategy Report where we updated our SPX dividend discount model (bottom panel). Bottom Line: While we remain cyclically bullish, any mishaps on China’s and/or the Fed’s front will likely serve as a catalyst for a near-term correction.