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Yesterday we highlighted that the August update of the Philly Fed’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook survey sent a negative signal, with the New Orders, Sales, and Employment components all deteriorating. On Wednesday, the flash estimate of the US services…
Earlier this week, EUR/JPY closed at a fresh 15-year high, bringing its year-to-date gain to 14%, before losing some ground over the subsequent two days. To the extent that the recent increase in global bond yields continues to encourage carry trades, it has…
European natural gas prices have recently been trending higher with the Dutch TTF gaining 66% since late July. The proximate cause of the rally is supply concerns. The risk of strikes at Australian LNG plants are a threat to the country’s LNG shipments –…
The flash August S&P Global PMI data released on Wednesday painted a picture of softer global growth, while also hinting that Europe is on the cusp of recession. The composite PMI for the euro area fell by 1.6 versus the previous month to 47.0, led by…
German producer prices indicate that inflationary pressures continue to moderate. The producer price index’s 6.0% y/y drop in July is more pronounced than the anticipated 5.1% y/y decline and marks the first annual decrease since November 2020 and the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields are unlikely to experience a decisive break out that would carry them to 3%. Five economic forces suggest that German yields are unlikely to move meaningfully higher in the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the earnings outlook of Eurozone equities will continue to deteriorate over the coming two quarters despite the improvement in real economic activity. Earnings and revenue growth are…
European real GDP growth is stabilizing, so why would European equities continue to trade sideways for the remainder of the year? The answer lies with nominal growth and its impact on earnings.
The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets.
Greece is experiencing a strong economic revival from its lows of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The Hellenic Republic has shown resilience, with an annual real GDP growth of 4.5%, outpacing the Euro Area’s growth by 2%. Greece is also faring better on the…