マネートレンド / 流動性
The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession.
Chinese new loans grew from CNY 10.2 tr to CNY 11.1tr in May, disappointing expectations of CNY 11.3tr. Year-to-date aggregate financing also came short of anticipations, growing from CNY 12.7tr to CNY 14.8tr. Notably, the contraction in M1 worsened from 1.4%…
Total consumer credit rose by USD 6.4 billion in April (to USD 5,053 billion outstanding), from a USD 1.1 billion decrease in March (a large downward revision to the USD 6.3 billion rise initially reported) and significantly shy of expectations for a USD 10…
European stocks have massively underperformed US ones since the GFC. Demographics and productivity say this trend will continue, but is that really so?
As in many other countries, China’s cyclical consumption growth is primarily driven by labor market conditions, income, and borrowing. BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service maintains the view that these three aspects will not meaningfully improve…
The New York Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit indicates that US household debt rose 1.1% q/q in Q1 to $17.7 trillion. Higher mortgage, home equity loan and auto loan balances drove the bulk of the Q1 increase, while credit card balances…
Chinese aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, declined on a YTD basis, from CNY 12.9tr to CNY 12.7tr in April, disappointing expectations that it would grow to CNY 13.9tr. Moreover, new loan growth missed expectations (from CNY 9.5tr to CNY 10.2tr)…
Europe credit flows are stabilizing, hence a major drag on the region’s growth will dissipate. What does this development imply for European equities?
Does the recent surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank augur other dovish surprises among major central banks in Europe?