スペイン
スペインの株式および債券のアウトパフォーマンスは、実質的なファンダメンタルズの改善を反映しています：不良債権の減少、収益性の向上、そして持続的な利益の上方修正。ラリーにもかかわらず、バリュエーションは依然として割安です。生産性は構造的なリスクの鍵ですが、短期的なファンダメンタルズは引き続き上振れのサプライズを示しています。
財政の持続可能性に関する懸念、タームプレミアムの上昇、中央銀行の独立性に対する攻撃があるにもかかわらず、金融政策は引き続き債券市場の主要な推進要因となっています。Q3レビュー＆アウトルックでは、国債、短期金利先物、グローバルなイールドカーブ、インフレ連動債、クレジットにおける見解を更新し、機会を特定します。
Europe’s deflation problem is getting harder to ignore. This week’s ECB cut is just the beginning — tariffs, the euro’s rally, and softening demand all point to more easing ahead. We explain what it means for yields, equities, and EUR/USD.
We are at a pivotal moment for Europe, supported by structural reforms and macro catalysts. While expanding credit markets and lower rates favor Private Equity over Private Credit, opportunities vary by segment. Large+ Buyouts are attractive as markets have priced in structural challenges. We downgrade Europe Private Credit, remain neutral on Europe Private Equity broadly but overweight Europe vs. North America in PE portfolios.
Questions about fiscal risks and their impact on bond markets have become more frequent in client conversations. This Special Report provides a framework to assess a country’s fiscal sustainability and how it affects its bond market outlook. On an individual country basis, Spain has shown a remarkable turnaround in its fiscal sustainability outlook while the fiscal outlook for France continues to deteriorate.
Spain has outperformed most developed markets since 2022 – real economic output and risk assets alike. Can it last?