グローバル対国内

現在のマクロ環境は、過去の景気後退の直前に世界経済を脅かしたのと同様の脆弱性が多数混ざり合った有毒なブレンドだ：原油価格の上昇、持続不可能なテック分野の設備投資ブーム、エクイティのバリュエーションの高止まり、住宅価格の過度な高騰、そしてプライベート・クレジットや金融システムの他の部分で高まりつつあるストレス。ごく短期的にはグローバル・エクイティは売られ過ぎに見えるが、それでも年末時点では現在の水準を下回って終えるだろう。

投資家はポートフォリオにおいて株式を控えめにアンダーウェイトにし、不況の具体的な兆しが見え次第、より積極的にディフェンシブな姿勢に転じるべきです。私たちはこれが数ヶ月以内に起こると考えています。

European equities will face a clash of powerful forces this summer. Expect sharp swings and false breaks, creating an ideal terrain for nimble traders but a minefield for buy-and-hold investors seeking steady gains.Within this backdrop, our stance remains unchanged: stay long value, short growth. Pair it with long core markets against the periphery and overweight domestically oriented names relative to exporters.EURO STOXX 50: Summer Range, Tactical Risks HighEuropean equities are boxed in: Powerful but evenly matched forces should trap the EURO  STOXX 50 between 4750 and 5500 through the summer, creating near-term tactical risks.TailwindsTrade war pause. The White House’s recent climbdown shows that the administration is constrained. Once its actions endanger growth (and the odds of GOP victories), it will retreat. Extreme left tail risks have therefore narrowed. Because 22% of European corporate sales come from the US, lower recession odds there lift the expected value of Euro Area profits. Earnings revisions were already at panic levels that usually mark an interim EURO STOXX 50 trough, so the trade ceasefire supports prices in the coming months (Chart 1).End of US exceptionalism. Fiscal stimulus in the United States is ebbing. The average primary deficit ran at roughly 3.7% of  GDP from 2005 to 2015 and 4.5% from 2016 to 2024, creating an average fiscal thrust of 0.8% of GDP during the last decade. The Big Beautiful Budget Bill will result in an average primary deficit of 4.2% of GDP over the next ten years. As a result, the average fiscal thrust will fall to 0.25%, which will result in weaker US growth conditions. Tariffs, if they remain in place long-term, could even depress the thrust further as they constitute a tax on households. Europe, meanwhile, has put austerity behind it, and private sector deleveraging is over. The narrowing fiscal gap raises the expected return on the European capital stock relative to the US, a scenario that has often lifted Eurozone equities (Chart 2). Investors understand this change, and they are diversifying away from the US into Europe, which remains attractively priced in relative terms (Chart 3).HeadwindsValuations. Compared to Wall Street, Europe is inexpensive, but relative to its own history, it is rich. The MSCI Euro Area trades near the top of its forward P/E range at 13.6. Consensus also projects a solid 12 month EPS growth, leaving little valuation cushion (Chart 4).Margin risk. Forward margins sit near record levels at 8.7% (Chart 5). EU bound US tariffs have already risen to 25%, and an elevated EUR/CNY hands Chinese firms a competitive edge over European ones. Pricing power should weaken over the rest of 2025, pressuring margins lower.Rates. The latest FOMC minutes show a central bank fixated on the dangerous mix of elevated household inflation expectations and the threat of tariff driven inflation despite deteriorating US soft data (Chart 6). By refusing to ease, the Fed is falling behind the growth curve, which heightens the odds of a hard landing. Long yields are also a threat to European equities. BCA’s fixed income team shows that heavier net issuance and heightened inflation uncertainty are driving 10 and 30 year rates higher worldwide. A fatter term premium drags on growth and endangers inflated multiples. The pinch is sharpest in the US, however, European stocks sport a high beta that will echo any global equity pullback sparked by a skittish bond market (Chart 7).Balancing these forces, the EURO  STOXX  50 should oscillate between 4750 and 5500 through the summer. At today’s 5367 level, the index is a tactical sell, and seasonal patterns point in the same direction (Chart 8).Bottom Line: European equities will chop sideways until the push and pull between growing earnings risks and the trade war respite resolves. With the EURO STOXX  50 hovering near the top of its 4750–5500 corridor, trim exposure and lean on relative trades. Wait for margins to reset and global yields to settle before adding directional risk.Relative Value Playbook for a Range Bound MarketIn a directionless but volatile market, alpha lives in relative value. For the summer, we prefer three pair trades: long core equities against the periphery, long value against growth, and long domestically focused names against exporters.Long Core/Short PeripheryPeripheral equities have been all the rage lately, beating core markets by  29% since early 2024. Yet in 2025, their price surge has outpaced earnings, and the gap between relative performance and relative EPS growth is now extreme (Chart 9). PMIs in the periphery are also sliding versus the core (Chart 10). The set up argues for a rotation back into core benchmarks.Long Value/Growth StocksEuropean value stocks still sell at an abnormal discount of 50% to growth stocks, compared to a median discount of 34% since 2003 (Chart 11). Year to date, value has been the strongest-performing factor in Europe, rising by  17%. Meanwhile, growth has been the worst-performing factor in Europe, rising by only 6%. Attractive valuations, combined with improving momentum, should keep the bid under value stocks during policy driven volatility. For national markets, the UK is in the sweet spot: it trades at a record discount to global equities (Chart 12) and offers defensive exposure.Long Domestic Firms/Short ExportersDomestic firms face less tariff risk and less price pressure from China than exporters. They also capture a greater share of the upside from Europe’s completed private sector deleveraging, a key driver of the region’s improving medium term growth outlook. Their appeal is not yet fully reflected in their valuations. Despite a recent bounce, domestic stocks still trade slightly below their twenty year median forward P/E relative to exporters (Chart 13). A firmer euro and the rebound in small cap leadership add tailwinds to this trade. Mathieu Savary,Chief European StrategistMathieu@bcaresearch.com            

Although the sell-off in the US dollar and relative outperformance of non-US stocks will pause over the coming months as a global recession begins, the fading of US exceptionalism will still cause the dollar to weaken and US stocks to underperform over a multi-year horizon.

特別レポート

In Section II, Jonathan presents a new indicator that investors can use to track the odds of bubble formation in real time and shows how it fits into a larger framework that accurately explains US bear market severity over the past century. The US equity market is not in a bubble today, but it is meaningfully overvalued. Investors should expect a relatively severe cumulative loss from equities in a recession scenario.

In Section I, Doug notes that weak US consumer sentiment is beginning to manifest. A wide sweep of consumer-facing companies have lowered guidance, and monoline credit card lenders shed nearly 20% over just three weeks across late February and early March. If the US enters a recession sometime this year as we expect, it will likely lead to a global recession and a global equity bear market. Investors should remain defensively positioned. In Section II, Jonathan presents a new indicator that investors can use to track the odds of bubble formation in real time and shows how it fits into a larger framework that accurately explains US bear market severity over the past century. The US equity market is not in a bubble today, but it is meaningfully overvalued. Investors should expect a relatively severe cumulative loss from equities in a recession scenario.

特別レポート

Jonathan provides an update on Canada following strong performance from Canadian stocks last year. On a tactical basis, underweight Canada versus global ex-US on the expectation of tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico. Following a sell off, or if a trade war is avoided, investors should place Canadian stocks on upgrade watch with the goal of moving to a modest overweight versus global ex-US.

Paradoxically, raging optimism on the US economy is making a reacceleration in growth less likely in 2025. The reaction of the bond market has made the Fed rethink its cutting campaign. Markets are also constraining Trump’s agenda. US manufacturing will not recover with a surging dollar. Fears of inflation and debt sustainability have made moderate House Republicans push back against the President Elect’s wishes. Given the sky-high optimism embedded in asset prices, we believe a defensive portfolio stance is warranted on a 12-month horizon. Overweight gold to hedge the risk of a fiscal crisis.

This is the time of the year when strategists are busy sending out their annual outlooks. Here on the Global Investment Strategy team, we decided to go one step further. Rather than pontificating about what could happen in 2025, we decided to harness the power of the multiverse to tell you what did happen (in at least one highly representative timeline).

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Tuesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets.

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2025. We will be back in the first week of January with our MacroQuant Model Update.