アメリカ合衆国
Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.
The JOLTS survey for April shows job openings unexpectedly rising from an upwardly revised 9.7 million to 10.1 million – above expectations of a decline to 9.4 million. The job openings rate inched up to 6.1% from 5.9% while the ratio of job openings to…
The Fed’s Beige Book is signaling that the US economy is losing steam following an improvement in momentum earlier this year. The release revealed that future growth expectations deteriorated. In particular, manufacturing activity was weak across most of the…
Over the past month, market participants have shifted their expectations for the path of the Fed funds rate. At the start of May, expectations were for the Fed to cut rates below current levels to just above 4.5% by the end of the year. Participants now…
Expectations for oil demand growth through 2023-24 are way too optimistic. Until these expectations fall to -0.5-1 percent, the oil price has further downside. Plus: collapsed complexity confirms that AI is in a mania, while basic materials stocks and ZAR/EUR are rebound candidates.
One of the most noteworthy developments of the Q1-2023 earnings season was that the net profit margin widened from 10.7% in Q4-2023 to 11.1%. This marked the first margin expansion since the 12.9% peak in Q2-2021. The year-end target for net profit margin is…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, despite temporary hurdles, the longer-term trends support an overweight in Defense. Global military spending is poised for significant increases as the world system destabilizes due to great power…
Market pricing of Fed rate expectations has moved closer in line with our US bond strategists’ expectations. According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 40% chance that the fed funds rate will be lower than current levels following…
A major divergence has emerged between the performance of the S&P500 and the US equal-weighted stock index. Even though the S&P500 index has been grinding higher, the US equal-weighted index has failed to rally. Such a pronounced decoupling…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service Treasury yields will remain rangebound until the unemployment rate starts to rise. However, yields are now near the top-end of that trading range, making this a good entry point to initiate long duration…