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According to our Bank Credit Analyst service, an inflection point in the relative performance of US stocks is not likely to occur over the coming 6-12 months. A recession favors US equities in common currency terms barring substantially less global ex-US…
US nominal personal income growth accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% in July, faster-than-anticipated, whereas personal spending accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5%, in line with expectations. The savings rate edged lower from 3.1% to a 16-year-low of 2.9%.…
This Insight looks at potential dollar moves in the next six-to-twelve months.
US GDP was unexpectedly revised higher to 3.0% q/q annualized in Q2, from 2.8% previously estimated. A significant upward revision to consumer spending (2.9% from 2.3% against expectations of a downward revision) largely offset weaker growth in other…
China has notably diversified its export markets over the past two decades, reducing its dependence on the US and other DM economies and strengthening trade ties with EM nations. Since 2000, shipments to the US have halved (from 30% to 16% of total exports),…
The Asian currency index (ADXY index) rose nearly 3% from its late-July lows. While CNY/USD accounted for a large share of these gains, an equal-weighted basket of non-CNY Asian currencies surged by an even larger margin (5%) indicating that Asian currencies’…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘demand-constrained’ state to a highly unusual ‘supply-constrained’ state. This inversion is still a ways from normalizing, with labor demand…
Australia’s CPI inflation eased from 3.8% y/y to a higher-than-expected 3.5% in July. The trimmed-mean measure eased from 4.1% to 3.8%. However, the Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates contributed to July’s easing in price pressures. The Australian…
US housing market data have been mixed. In June, the FHFA House Price index unexpectedly declined 0.1% m/m and the NAHB housing market index unexpectedly eased to 39 from a 41 reading. In July, starts and permits both disappointed, contracting 6.8% and 4.0%…