Monedas

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long Turkish equity volatility.

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

There is a 50:50 chance of experiencing a major deflationary shock in the next two years, and an even greater likelihood on a longer timeframe. The good news is that several assets provide a good insurance against this risk, and that this insurance is now cheap. Plus we highlight a compelling commodity pair-trade.

As the Fed meets today, we explain what it did wrong in 1970, 1974, and 1980 that prevented inflation from being exorcised, and the lessons for 2023-24. Plus, we identify a currency cross that could rebound in the next year.