Estados Unidos

The S&P financials sector continues to battle deflationary forces. While inflation expectations are off their low courtesy of this year's dip in the U.S. dollar, they remain well below 2014 levels when the U.S. dollar began to surge (top panel). The negative profit backlash from global deflation continues to reverberate across the business sector, and has undermined corporate balance sheets to the extent that banks are much less willing to extend C&I loans, their main source of asset growth (second panel). These trends are also sustaining downward pressure on the long end of the Treasury curve, causing a relentless yield curve narrowing. With the Fed still eager to lift interest rates, despite evidence of growth slippage, the odds of a policy mistake are creeping higher. Against this backdrop, financial sector profits are likely to lose additional steam, raising the odds of a breakdown in relative performance to new lows. Stay underweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5FINL.

The previous Insight showed that rails are working hard to reduce cost structures. However, rail profits are still tightly linked with overall freight trends. The decline in total railcar shipment growth warns that rail earnings estimates will continue to lag those of the broad market. The two major freight categories are struggling. Coal shipments have plunged, with no imminent relief in sight, as utilities, the primary coal purchasers, are suffering from a contracting electricity production. Meanwhile, intermodal shipments, the largest freight category, have slipped into negative territory. Sagging port traffic, soggy retail sales and high inventory-to-sales ratios suggest that demand for consumer goods will remain lackluster. As a result, deflation is likely to prevail a while longer and we continue to recommend only a market neutral weight, despite the appearance of good value. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5RAIL - UNP, NSC, CSX, KSU.

The relief rally in rail stocks has stalled at key resistance levels, but good value and extreme cost cutting efforts make it tempting to buy into any short-term weakness. Would that be a sound strategy? Top-line growth is lagging far below the rate of overall GDP growth, which is a bearish sign. However, rails have aggressively slashed costs, as both employment and capital spending have plunged. Moreover, the decline in railcar order backlogs suggests that new cars are coming on line. Rail operators lease the bulk of their cars, and tight supply in recent years boosted lease rates. As new cars hit the network, then lease rates should ease. These factors warn against extrapolating bearishness, but are they enough to bolster rail profits? Please see the next Insight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5RAIL - UNP, NSC, CSX, KSU.

Within an overweight allocation to Euro Area corporates versus U.S. corporates, favor single-B rated Euro Area High-Yield and Euro Area Investment Grade sectors that offer higher duration-adjusted spreads.

Stronger GDP growth will permit the Fed to hike rates once more before year-end, no earlier than September. However, the feedback loop between the Fed and financial conditions will prevent a second rate hike this year.

The tech sector is sagging on the under the weight of contracting sales growth. There is no imminent reprieve, underscoring that the cresting in overall sector margins is likely to accelerate. Consumer spending on technology products and services has climbed as a share of total outlays (second panel), but the sector is not receiving support elsewhere. Businesses are being forced to retrench. Profits are under pressure while balance sheets are increasingly debt-laden. As a result, executives are unable to pursue expansion. Companies have spent the bulk of the money raised to repurchase shares rather than to invest. Why would that improve if the gap between the return on and cost of capital continued to close, as is currently the case? Both our capital spending model and the narrowing gap between the return on and cost of capital warn that business investment on tech goods is headed south (third and fourth panels). Importantly, the financials sector, a large technology spender, is already laying out an historically high portion of its sales on capital spending. Financial sector investment is likely to be reined in now that the credit cycle has taken a turn for the worse and more money needs to be set aside for bad loans (bottom panel), which will remove another support for tech final demand. We reiterate our underweight tech sector view, please see yesterday's Weekly Report for more details.

The broad market remains unable to break out of its 18-month long trading range, and risks are rising that it will retest the lower end of the bound. Domestic economic disappoint is a growing probability, which could refocus attention on deteriorating corporate sector balance sheets. Cash flow generation is weakening but companies have continued to add leverage on the view that interest rates will stay low forever. Typically, as free cash flow declines and the non-financial corporate sector suffers through a painful increase in net debt/EBITDA (shown inverted, top panel), the stock market either corrects or has already entered a bear market, as risk premiums climb in anticipation of a self-reinforcing economic and profit downturn. This cycle, a massive divergence has opened up, as any concerns about rising debt stress have been trumped by the view that low interest rates and abundant central bank liquidity will support asset prices indefinitely. That is unsustainable, because debt must be repaid at some point, and the longer that this gap grows, the greater the vulnerability to share prices. In the interim, evidence is slowly emerging that debt excesses are causing economic backlash. Credit standards have tightened, loan loss provisions are creeping higher and corporate bond spreads appear to have troughed for the cycle. Credit concerns likely explain the inability of bank stocks to participate. In past cycles, bank underperformance amidst credit cycle erosion has provided a bearish warning for the broad market.

Stocks whipsawed violently last week. Volatility could intensify if recent whiffs of a domestic economic slowdown proliferate and the Fed still adopts a more hawkish tone.

The next rate hike is unlikely before September, despite the rebound in April retail sales. The dollar could suffer for a time, but the long-term bull market is intact.