Estados Unidos
MacroQuant is overweight bonds, underweight equities, and neutral on cash. Within the equity universe, the model is underweight the US and overweight Japan, the UK, and Australia.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted in November for the first time since mid-2020. It fell to 49.3 from 50.2, corroborating the downbeat signal from the alternative S&P Global PMI which declined by 2.7 points to 47.7. Details of the report underscore…
Over the past two months, the S&P 600 Small Cap index has gained nearly 17%, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 large cap benchmark by 3.1%. This marks an improvement in the fate of small caps, which have generally fallen in line with their larger peers over…
Recession is not yet fully priced in, so markets have further to fall next year. But watch for a buying opportunity in the second half.
Web 3.0 plays will boom in the coming decade. Play this through a diversified exposure to today’s main blockchain tokens. But the Web 2.0 oligopolies, like Amazon and Meta, are in big trouble.
The S&P 500 is down by 17% year to date, while our portfolio is up 15%. US political analysis is essential for investors but it is best done by geopolitical method rather than Washington punditry.
US Q3 GDP was revised higher in the second estimate to 2.9% from the initial 2.6%. In particular, consumer spending is now estimated to have contributed 1.18 percentage points to GDP – up from the initial 0.97 percentage points – with stronger services…
Results from the Jolts Survey continue to indicate that the US labor market is softening. The number of job openings fell from 10.7 million to 10.3 million in October, in line with the general downtrend that started in Q2. The survey’s other measures…
After collapsing earlier this year, the US Economic Surprise Index has been recovering and returned to positive territory at the beginning of November. A positive reading indicates that economic data releases have generally surprised to the upside, beating…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends that investors nudge portfolio duration up to neutral as we head into 2023. Then, starting in January, the team's task will be to call the cyclical peak in Treasury yields once they are confident that the…