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Estados Unidos

US financial instability reinforces our bearish investment outlook by weighing on economic growth and corporate earnings while also increasing US policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

Have global equity markets reached a riot point? Is the Fed going on hold a sufficient condition for stocks to stage a cyclical rally? If not, what would be needed to produce such a rally? Does the Fed’s recent balance sheet expansion foreshadow a rise in the US money supply? This report provides answers to all these questions.

This week’s report looks at the banking crisis within the context of shrinking dollar liquidity and implication for FX markets.

The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and made some important changes to its official forward interest rate guidance. Modifications to the policy statement signal that the Fed’s tightening cycle is close to its peak. Specifically, “the Committee…
Informe especial

Some quick takes from today’s FOMC meeting.

Commodity prices contain important information about the health of the global economy. For example, copper prices typically rise during periods of strong industrial activity, signaling that global growth is firm. Meanwhile, an increase in gold prices could be…
Unsurprisingly, financials are the worst performing equity sector since the fallout of SVB and Signature bank, with the S&P 500 Banks index down 17% since March 8 (see Market Focus). A question facing investors is whether bank stocks are now attractive…
Given that banks are the cause of the recent market turmoil, it is unsurprising that financials are the worst performing sector since the start of the tumult earlier this month. Yet, the equity weakness has been broad-based across most US and global equity…
Informe especial

The Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Europe to ramp up its defense spending. This will greatly benefit its defense industry, especially if defense coordination across the EU increases. 

Preliminary results from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey showed an unexpected drop in household morale. The headline index’s 3.6-point decline to 63.4 surprised consensus estimates it would remain unchanged. The decline came on the back…