Estados Unidos
The S&P 500 rally broadened in July, lifting this year’s laggards. Surging long yields are altering the macroeconomic backdrop, as the market absorbs that monetary policy will stay restrictive for a long time. Yet, a move down in yields is more likely than a move up over a tactical horizon. Q2 earnings were better than expected but investors were unimpressed – the good news is already priced in. The market is overvalued and is close to being overbought, which makes it vulnerable to disappointment.
Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report.
La Corte Suprema es generadora de certidumbre más que de incertidumbre para los mercados estadounidenses. En caso de una crisis constitucional, una intervención judicial probablemente reducirá la volatilidad.