Estados Unidos
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold’s appeal as a safe haven and store of value will increase as fiscal dominance overtakes monetary dominance at the Fed. Fitch’s downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA+ hit markets as the US…
Some thoughts on this morning’s inflation number and implications for Treasury yields and TIPS.
On Monday, Moody’s downgraded the credit ratings of 10 small to mid-sized US banks and placed some of the biggest US banks on downgrade watch. The latter include Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, State Street, and Truist Financial. The decision follows Q2…
During the last economic expansion, a structurally overweight allocation to stocks was at least partially warranted by the idea that “There Is No Alternative” – or “T.I.N.A.” During the last expansion, very accommodative monetary policy significantly reduced…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should stay overweight low-beta assets. Geopolitical risk is likely to stay elevated in Asia Pacific in the coming months. Mainland China faces debt-deflation, poor governance, and a…
The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets.
The US NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index increased by 0.9 points to an eight-month high of 91.9, beating expectations of a more muted 0.3-point increase. Although the level remains depressed below the 49-year average of 98, the trend is positive: the July…
Over the past two months, risk sentiment has improved amid receding fears of an imminent US recession. Economic data have been generating strong upside surprises and the US equity rally has broadened with cyclicals outperforming defensives since the beginning…
Core inflation in the US should drift lower in the coming months. However, it is too early to conclude that the US is completely out of the woods when it comes to inflation. Given that the US job market remains tight, and the economy remains resilient, it is…
President Joe Biden’s approval rating trended down from a peak in February this year of 45.8% to the current level of 42.1%. Meanwhile his disapproval rating rose from a trough of 50.9% to its current 54.3%. The negative trend is worrisome for the Biden…