Economy
According to BCA Research’s Private Markets & Alternatives service, intra-market repricing will offer investors a unique opportunity to enter the industrial real estate space in the next two years. In the short term, Mexico will be a big winner from the…
German factory orders contracted by a larger-than-anticipated 5.8% m/m (3.9% y/y) in August, from a 3.9% expansion (4.6% y/y). Domestically, Germany is constitutionally bound to maintain a balanced budget. The emergency pandemic funds disbursed in 2020 are…
Indian equities reached new highs in late September. Our Emerging Market strategists recommend dedicated EM investors use these gains as an opportunity to reduce Indian equity allocations from neutral to underweight. They expect both profits and multiples to…
The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the upside in September coming in at 105.5 against expectations of 101.0. The August reading was also significantly revised higher, from 101.6 to 105.0.…
This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.
Claudia Sheinbaum officially became Mexico's new president amid significant market pessimism. Our Emerging Market strategists highlighted that investor fears about Mexico’s constitutional changes were largely unwarranted. Investors have overreacted to…
In response to the Chinese stimulus announced in late September, our Emerging Market strategists upgraded EM equities to no more than neutral. Indeed, while these measures have triggered a sentiment-fueled rally from depressed valuation levels, conditions are…
September nonfarm payrolls grew by 254 thousand, from 155 thousand in August, handily exceeding expectations of 150 thousand. Pro-cyclical manufacturing jobs declined by a lower-than-anticipated 7 thousand, while leisure and hospitality, as well as…
The bond market priced out a lot of recession risk after this morning’s employment report, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back into the Soft Landing Zone. We assess the data and consider whether we need to change our cyclical positioning.
The ISM services PMI grew at an accelerating pace in September, from 51.5 to 54.9, handily exceeding expectations, and extending a three-month expansion streak. Growth was broad-based with an increasing number of industries (12 out of 17) reporting expansions…