Developed Countries
Technology and globalization have revolutionized the manufacturing process and disrupted the global economic landscape. Advanced economies have outsourced manufacturing activities to cheaper labor countries, resulting in a steady transition to service…
While we are not yet sounding the alarm about the macro risks to corporate bonds, we are even less concerned about the macro risks surrounding agency MBS. Mortgage refinancing activity is the most important macro driver of MBS spreads, and it should stay…
The average option-adjusted spread (OAS) for conventional 30-year agency MBS has widened in recent months and now looks like an attractive alternative to high-rated corporate credit. We recommend that investors shift out of Aaa, Aa and A-rated corporate…
En el más reciente Informe Especial analizamos el rendimiento histórico por sectores desde 1960 durante periodos deflacionarios que definimos como dos trimestres consecutivos de crecimiento negativo del deflactor de precios del sector corporativo.
Encontramos que, tras nuestra señal deflacionaria, los defensivos suben 1.4% en términos relativos en un horizonte de 6 meses, mientras que los cíclicos bajan 2.5%. También observamos un punto de inflexión alrededor de los 12 meses, cuando los cíclicos comienzan a recuperar sus pérdidas pasando de -2.5% a apenas -0.21%, mientras que los defensivos ceden sus ganancias pasando de 1.38% a 0.76%. De forma similar, si miramos a 24 meses, observamos que los cíclicos están superando al mercado por 0.5% (en gran medida impulsados por la tecnología), y los defensivos están rezagados respecto al mercado por -1.2% (arrastrados por telecomunicaciones y servicios públicos), lo que señala que el mercado se ha recuperado.
Para ver una discusión más detallada sobre la dinámica específica por sectores, consulte el Informe Especial de este lunes.
¿Dónde refugiarse de la deflación?
¿Dónde refugiarse de la deflación?
The September ISM Manufacturing number released this morning was much weaker than anticipated, falling from 49.1 to 47.8 instead of rising to 50. Moreover, only 17% of industries reported positive overall growth. On the plus side, New Orders marginally…
Inflationary pressures remain muted in the U.S., which supports growth in two ways. First, muted inflation allows the Fed to maintain accommodative monetary conditions. In the absence of crippling debt-servicing costs, easy policy guarantees a continued…
The U.S.-China trade war still looms as the biggest risk to the global economy and remains the main source of investor angst. The Iranian attack on critical Saudi Arabian infrastructure also has the potential to destabilize markets and exacerbate investor…
IPO activity is a proxy for animal spirits. Well-received IPOs suggest investors still have a hearty appetite for what the future might hold and that they do not fear the imminent end of the bull market. However, if new issues are too well received, IPO…