Developed Countries

We expect a bullish gold environment in 2023, conditional on a more dovish Fed. We are hesitant to go strategically long gold, since our view hinges on one variable: US monetary policy. We remain tactically bullish gold to take advantage of the reduced pace of US rate hikes.

The pandemic gave older Americans and Brits a massive carrot and stick to retire early. The carrot being a surge in wealth, the stick being a risk to health. In other major economies, the carrots and sticks were smaller or non-existent. Hence, the shortage of older workers, and the resulting wage inflation, is a specific US and UK problem. We go through the important economic and investment implications for 2023.

Investors should maintain a conservative and defensive strategy until recession risks are clearly reduced.