Developed Countries
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) shows that US commercial banks continue to tighten lending standards across nearly all business and household loan categories. Moreover, demand is weakening for commercial & industrial (C&I),…
At 3.8%, the yield on 10-year UK Gilts is now back near where it was in early March. This marks a round-trip after the yield fell to as low as 3.3% in the weeks following the emergence of bank stress in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, both US and German 10-year…
The ECB continues to focus on lagging indicators and risks once again to cause a policy error that unduly hurts European growth. What does it mean for investors?
Friday’s US jobs report came in stronger than anticipated. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253 thousand in April, meaningfully above expectations of a 185 thousand increase. Admittedly, the March figure was revised down significantly from 236 thousand to…
Investors are betting that the Fed has delivered its last rate hike of the cycle and will swiftly pivot to easing policy. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 38% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the July meeting. By September,…
The Fed’s Index of Common Inflation Expectations confirms that there is reduced pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy further. The quarterly release shows the index declined for the third consecutive time in Q1. The index is a comprehensive…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s base case remains a 2024 recession but the risks around that view have increased in light of recent banking stresses. A recession that begins abruptly this year could end up being deeper than one that begins…
Although our take has not changed yet, the immediate emergence of a second wave of banking system stresses poses a new threat to our constructive near-term economic and market views and will have to be monitored carefully.
As anticipated, the ECB downshifted the pace of rate hikes on Thursday, delivering a 25bps increase. Moreover, the central bank announced that it “expects” to end APP reinvestments in July. President Christine Lagarde continued to characterize inflation as…
The Norwegian central bank’s 25bps policy rate hike on Thursday was in line with consensus expectations. The lack of a decisive peak in headline CPI inflation – which has been gyrating in the 5.9-7.5% range since mid-2022 – is keeping policymakers…