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For a decade, Germany’s growth has been modest; since the pandemic, it has been dismal. Investors believe that the German model is dead and that the country is doomed to deindustrialize. Germany does face strong structural challenges because of its poor demographic profile, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy disadvantages, and rigid fiscal policy.  

However, Germany’s structural headwinds were amplified by important cyclical forces that are ebbing. As a result, Germany’s growth will improve over the coming years and outperform the rock-bottom expectations of investors.