Global Investment Strategy

• Our weekly reports consist of updates of our strategy and recommended portfolio mix, complete with the performance of our trade recommendations, while keeping clients abreast of any important shifts in the macroeconomic landscape
• Our special reports focus on original investment ideas or timely topics, drilling down into relevant issues affecting the macroeconomic outlook and markets
• We offer quarterly strategy outlooks, which highlight developing investment themes, identify opportunities and risks, recommend strategy, and review performance
• Client receive ad-hoc special alerts signaling major shifts in investment service
• We also provide a tactical global asset allocation monthly update based on BCA Research’s cutting-edge MacroQuant model, a market-timing model which draws on over 100 variables on the economy, financial and monetary conditions, sentiment, and valuations to derive tactical global portfolio allocation recommendations towards equities and bonds

• Our discussion of key economic and investment themes is designed to assist clients in understanding the underlying forces that are shaping the economic and financial market outlook in both the developed and emerging worlds
• Our unique approach results in timely and actionable recommendations, which allow clients to capitalize on profit opportunities as well as preserve capital
• Our analysis draws on the breadth and depth of BCA Research’s research offerings, and is based on a mix of macroeconomic developments and how they impact all financial markets spanning the globe
• The GIS team utilizes unique models and indicators that give investors an edge in forecasting market trends. Some of these models were pioneered at BCA Research decades ago and have stood the test of time. Others, such as MacroQuant, offer innovative, cutting-edge tools that are not available anywhere else in the investment community

2021: Warning on cryptos and internet stocks
GIS warned in May 2021 that cryptos were heading for a fall. At the end of 2022, we reiterated that we remain short Bitcoin from an entry price of $63,267 with a long-term target of $5,000. In August 2021, GIS warned that another high-flying asset – US internet stocks – were set to tumble. In May 2022, after a sharp fall in the Nasdaq Composite, we turned neutral on tech stocks.

2018: Stocks before and during the pandemic
GIS downgraded global equities in June 2018 based on the prospects of slowing global growth and an increasingly hawkish Fed. We repeatedly cautioned clients against “buying the dip” as stocks began to plunge in October. The GIS service turned bullish on equities in late 2018 and this upgrade proved timely, with global equities engaging on a good run in 2019. We forewarned that investors were too complacent about the coronavirus at the end of February of 2020. As the market crash was unfolding, we argued in March 2020 that the year would end up looking more like 1998 than a 1918 Spanish flu-type scenario. We also laid out the thesis that the pandemic could lead to higher stock prices in April 2020, one that was regarded with much skepticism at the time.

2016: End of the Bond Bull Market 
After being in the “deflationary” camp for many years, GIS shifted its view on bonds towards a more bearish stance in July 2016. Our note entitled “End Of The 35-Year Bond Bull Market” came out on the same day the US 10-year Treasury yield reached a pre-Covid closing low of 1.37%. We argued correctly at the time that both cyclical and structural forces would conspire to put in a bottom for yields. This view was upended by the pandemic, but it also gave us another chance to play the upside in yields. We initiated a short 10-year Treasury trade at a yield of 1.45% in June 2021 which we closed in October 2022 for a double-digit gain.

2015: Populist Wave
We began discussing the new age of populism quite early on. GIS predicted that Donald Trump would become president. In early June 2016, GIS began flagging that the Brexit vote was too close to call. In an aptly titled report “Worry About Brexit, Not Payrolls,” GIS warned that investors were greatly understating the risks that on June 23rd, the British population would reject the European establishment by voting in favor of Brexit, an event which ultimately came to pass.

2014: Long Dollar
The Global Investment Strategy instated a long US dollar (DXY) position in late-2014, with nuances added along the way. Staying with this position until April 2019 was a profitable course of action, as it generated a double-digit positive return.

2011: Peak Commodity
Identifying turning points of secular trends in financial assets is a critical part of what the Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service can deliver to its client base. In May 2011, Peter Berezin presented a speech entitled “The Coming Commodity Bust” at a conference in Saudi Arabia. As one of the only bearish voices on the stage, he argued that the fundamentals underpinning the commodity boom had broken down and that it was time to turn more cautious on oil and metals.