Multi Asset: Global

Geopolitical Strategy

BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service provides market-relevant, data-driven, non-partisan, macroeconomic research with geopolitical risk analysis resulting in discretionary trade recommendations for global investors.

Tools to forge your own views

  • Tactical, cyclical, and structural trade recommendations for key assets, with express conviction levels, based on our constraint-based analysis and probabilistic forecasting
  • Weekly Reports that update investors on the global state of play; Special Reports that dive deep into country risks and major trends; Special Alerts for major breaking events; and monthly Crow’s Nest Webcasts with a lively Q&A  
  • Client calls and meetings to help investors interpret breaking events, game out scenarios, and discuss the investment takeaways of our out-of-consensus political analysis
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Investors need a structural way of incorporating politics into their process. This is not about predicting inherently unpredictable events. It is about getting the policy settings right to improve scenario probabilities and generate geopolitical alpha. 

Matt Gertken Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy

How we do it

  • Discretionary trade recommendations for major global assets, including safe havens
  • Unbiased global coverage of market-relevant events, buttressed by the macroeconomic and market analysis of the geopolitical team and BCA’s other strategies
  • Unique “constraints-based” methodology derived from best practices of the U.S. national security community, business intelligence, and academic research
  • Proprietary quantitative indicators of geopolitical power and risk, innovative applications of open-source indicators, and election modeling for major elections

Challenge your investment conviction with insights from Geopolitical Strategy 

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Some of what we've called

2011 European Integration
BCA Geopolitical Strategy has argued since its inception that the EU monetary union would not collapse (Oct 2011). We recommended going long S&P 500 on December 21, 2012 for a gain of 35.5%, a short EUR-USD position on Jan 23, 2014 for a 28.5% gain, and long Euro Area aggregate government bonds on January 16, 2014 for a gain of 22.8%.


2012 U.S.-China Rivalry
We declared that U.S.-China conflict was likely in Sept 2012. We went long cyber-security firms on May 8, 2013 for a 66.9% gain and long Chinese SOEs relative to non-SOEs on Oct 8, 2014 for a gain of 34.8%.


2014 Peak Globalization
We have held that developed markets would outperform emerging markets since Nov 16, 2012, for a gain of 44%. In Nov 2014 we argued that the world has seen “Apex Globalization.” 


2016-17 China Slowdown
China faces both external tariffs and internal deleveraging (Dec 2016). We highlighted forthcoming volatility via the CBOE China ETF Volatility Index on Sept 20 and Oct 18, 2017, and it rose 17.7% and 26.5% respectively.

Geopolitical Strategy

Strategist

Matt Gertken

Matt is currently BCA’s Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy. He oversees the firm’s coverage of market-relevant geopolitical, political, and policy developments across the world. Prior tojoining BCA in 2015, Matt worked as a Senior Analyst at Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor) and in various academic and publishing roles. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.

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