2011 European Integration
BCA Research Geopolitical Strategy has argued since its inception that the EU monetary union would not collapse and that European integration would be the answer to crises (Oct 2011). We always carved out an exception for the UK, which culminated in Brexit. Still, European solidarity and integration have been reinforced in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
2012 US-China Rivalry
We assessed that US-China conflict was likely in Sept 2012. This enabled us to take President Trump seriously from the beginning. We also highlighted that policy would remain hawkish under any Democratic president, which has played out with the Biden administration so far.
2014 Peak Globalization
In Nov 2014 we argued that the world has seen “Apex Globalization.” Multipolarity in geopolitics would reinforce the protectionist impulses emerging around the world.
2016 China Deleveraging
China’s leadership is using the centralization of political power to combat systemic financial risk and this “deleveraging campaign” will drag on global growth (Dec 2016). The trade war and COVID-19 only temporarily interrupted this important theme, which is one of the major deflationary risks in the exuberant post-COVID bull market.
2017 Proxy Battles In Asia
Amid US-China divorce, the rest of Asia becomes a key focal point for global growth, trade, and geopolitical competition (March 2017). India, Japan, and Southeast Asia stand to benefit but Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines face escalating geopolitical risk.
2019 US Peak Polarization
In July 2019 and again in April 2020 we argued that US political polarization is reaching a historic peak that will include the 2020 election cycle and the aftermath. In the coming years we expect a new national policy consensus to emerge centering on proactive fiscal spending and confrontation with China. Polarization is a feature of US politics but its market relevance will decline if there is consensus on fiscal and trade policy.
2021 Hypo-Globalization
In a post-COVID context, global trade will revive but a return to “hyper-globalization” will not occur. Globalization will underperform its potential. Protectionism and mercantilism will co-exist with the formation of strategic trading blocs.
