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Multi Asset: Regional

Emerging Markets Strategy

BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy helps investors understand the EM landscape by merging global research with country specific insights, benefiting both global asset allocators, and dedicated EM portfolios.

Tools to forge your own views

  • Recommendations for Emerging Market equities, exchange rates, local currency bonds and US-dollar bonds (credit markets)
  • BCA Research EM Pendulum webcasts highlight the key themes of the current market. Clients can interact via live Q&A or through on-demand conference calls with the strategists
  • Cross-asset class analysis to help you detect messages from certain market niches to draw investment ramifications for other asset classes/markets
  • In-depth country analysis and Special Reports provide key unique country-specific themes as well as country asset allocation recommendation across 20 countries

“We strive to identify critical market drivers that the consensus might be missing. We do so by combining global macro themes and unique analytics with in-depth country research.”

Arthur Budaghyan Chief Strategist,

China Investment Strategy

How we do it

  • EMS connects the dots across global economic and financial landscapes, identifying market dislocations and draw implications for EM asset classes
  • Our team distills signals from noise helping investors to focus the sustainable trends and fade short-term fluctuations
  • EMS provides 6-12 months cyclical recommendations for all EM assets classes as well as country allocation within EM portfolios
  • We formulate multi-year investment themes and long-term strategic recommendations

Challenge your investment conviction with insights from Emerging Markets Strategy

Explore our research

Some of what we've called

Short EM Equities versus the S&P 500 (December 2010 - July 2020; a 190% profit with very low volatility)
Recommended the short EM equities / long the S&P 500 strategy in December 14, 2010 and closed it on July 30, 2020. Consistently, underweighted EM stocks versus their DM peers from 2010 to July 2020.

Short EM currencies versus the US Dollar (2011 – July 2020)
Shorted a basket of EM currencies versus the US dollar since 2011 and booked profits on July 9, 2020.

The investment call for the last decade: Made the case for underweighting commodities and overweighting health care and technology in the decade of 2010 (special report from June 2010).
Commodities stocks were among the worst performers and technology and health care share prices were the best performing equity sectors in both DM and EM from 2010 to 2020.

China Investment Strategy

Arthur Budaghyan

Chief Strategist

Arthur Budaghyan is BCA Research’s Chief Strategist, China Investment Strategy and Emerging Markets Strategy. Since joining BCA in 1999, he has been responsible for EM trading strategies and became the Chief Strategist of the Emerging Markets Strategy in 2005. Prior to BCA, Arthur worked for a regulatory government agency in Armenia supervising financial markets. Arthur has an MBA from American University of Armenia, a Masters in Economic Policy Management from McGill University, and is a CFA charterholder.

How have our EM insights tracked over the decades?

Emerging Markets Strategy

Does EM always outperform in the long run?

March 14 2019

None of the individual EM bourses has outperformed DM on a consistent basis over the past 40 years. EM share performance has exhibited long-term cycles of around seven to 10 years. Getting these cycles right is instrumental to successful investing. EM investing is primarily about exchange rates. We also publish analysis on South Africa’s public debt sustainability.

Emerging Markets Strategy

EMS EM Equity Valuations Part I

January 24 2018

After the significant share price run up, the question for investors is whether EM equities are still cheap or have become overvalued.

Emerging Markets Strategy

How To Play Emerging Market Growth In The Coming Decade

June 08 2010

It has become consensus in the investment community that the way to play the emerging market growth story is via the resource sector. Indeed, emerging markets and commodity-related sectors have been positively correlated as energy and materials account for a large share of emerging market large caps.

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