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Multi Asset: Regional

China Investment Strategy

BCA Research’s China-focused strategy service, oriented around an assessment of the cyclical trajectory of China’s economy and the accompanying investment strategy conclusions for the Greater China Region.

Tools to forge your own views

  • The integration of top-down macro analysis and portfolio/investment strategy for several China-related assets
  • A weekly assessment of significant economic and financial market developments in China, and whether they are consistent with our recommended investment strategy
  • Ad hoc Special Reports focused on the medium-to long-term themes for China
  • A combination of the most salient Chinese macro data into a focused set of proprietary indicators
  • “End-to-end” service: From macro insight, to analysis, to forecast, to investment conclusions

“China has grown to become one of the three core pillars of the global economy. If you want to understand, predict, and profit from shifts in the trajectory of Chinese economic activity, CIS is a must-have strategy service.”

Arthur Budaghyan Chief Strategist,

China Investment Strategy

How we do it

  • We strongly focus on identifying and tracking leading indicators for China’s investment-relevant economic activity, in order to predict its likely cyclical trajectory and the attendant implications for global growth
  • This outlook for growth is then filtered through the lens of policy, which is informed heavily by BCA Research’s constraint-based approach to analyzing likely policy outcomes
  • A joint assessment of the global economic environment and Chinese growth, policy, and financial conditions inform our fundamental view for key China-related assets
  • Our view on asset fundamentals is married with both analytical and judgmental assessments of investor sentiment in order to generate specific asset allocation recommendations over a tactical, cyclical, and strategic time horizon

Challenge your investment conviction with insights from China Investment Strategy

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Some of what we've called

Long H-Shares
Long H-Shares and Short Industrial Commodities, initiated in March 2016; closed January 2018 with a 16% annualized return.


Long MSCI China
Long MSCI China and Short MSCI Taiwan, initiated February 2017; closed June 2018; 15% annualized return.


Long MSCI China Consumer Staples 
Long MSCI China Consumer Staples and Short Consumer Discretionary, initiated in November 2017, closed September 2018; 48% return.


Long China Onshore Corporate Bonds
Long China Onshore Corporate Bonds, initiated June 2017; currently open; 9.4% return since initiation.

China Investment Strategy

Arthur Budaghyan

Chief Strategist

Arthur Budaghyan is BCA Research’s Chief Strategist, China Investment Strategy and Emerging Markets Strategy. Since joining BCA in 1999, he has been responsible for EM trading strategies and became the Chief Strategist of the Emerging Markets Strategy in 2005. Prior to BCA, Arthur worked for a regulatory government agency in Armenia supervising financial markets. Arthur has an MBA from American University of Armenia, a Masters in Economic Policy Management from McGill University, and is a CFA charterholder.

Examples of our work

China Investment Strategy

China Is Easing Up On The Brake, Not Pressing The Accelerator

July 26 2018

A flurry of policy announcements over the past month has given investors the impression that Beijing has turned the policy dial in the direction of supporting growth. We agree that China is easing at the margin, but several observations suggest that the stimulus proposed so far falls short of a "big bang" response that would reverse both the looming export shock as well as the underlying slowdown in China's old economy.

China Investment Strategy

China And The Risk Of Escalation

March 07 2018

In isolation, recently proposed U.S. import tariffs are not very relevant for investment strategy. However, the lessons learned from studying game theory suggest that investors should be closely monitoring the possibility of a series of "tit-for-tat" retaliations if the Trump administration continues to pursue aggressively protectionist trade policies.

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