Matt Gertken

Strategist

Matt is currently BCA Research’s Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy. He oversees the firm’s coverage of market-relevant geopolitical, political, and policy developments across the world. Prior tojoining BCA Research in 2015, Matt worked as a Senior Analyst at Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor) and in various academic and publishing roles. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.

Geopolitical Strategy

BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service provides market-relevant, data-driven, non-partisan, macroeconomic research with geopolitical risk analysis resulting in discretionary trade recommendations for global investors.

Find out more and challenge your investment decisions with our Geopolitical Strategy

Geopolitical Strategy

US Election 2020: Civil War Lite

March 02 2020

After a harrowing year in which global manufacturing slumped due to China’s tight credit policy and Trump’s trade war, the probability of a US recession is now – tentatively – subsiding. This is good news for Trump, whose presidency is hanging by a thread.

Geopolitical Strategy

The Polybius Solution

July 04 2019

Over the next six-to-18 months, the trade war with China should reaccelerate while the U.S. should back away from war with Iran. But for now Persian Gulf risks are coming to the fore. A full-fledged cold war with China will put a cap on American political polarization, putting China at a disadvantage. By contrast, a U.S. war with Iran would exacerbate polarization, giving China a huge strategic opportunity.

Geopolitical Strategy

Is China Already Isolated?

January 23 2019

It is too soon to adopt a cyclical overweight position on Chinese equities. Remain overweight only tactically. China is still maintaining a disciplined approach to economic stimulus.

Geopolitical Strategy

The 2020 U.S. Election: A “Way Too Soon" Forecast

November 07 2018

A gridlocked government is unlikely to produce major change in economic policy. Midterm elections will not determine Trump's reelection chances, rather the timing of the next recession will. BCA Research's House View expects it by 2020. Absent a recession, Donald Trump remains the favored candidate for the 2020 presidential election.

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Matt Gertken in the news

Asia Times

World reacts to China's growing sphere of influence

May 29 2020

“China is taking advantage of global chaos to solidify its sphere of influence – beginning with Hong Kong,” said Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at macro research firm BCA Research.

Barron's

China’s Leadership Is About to Grow More Reactionary, Strategist Says

May 22 2020

Risk of economic stagnation is why [Chinese] policy makers at the National People’s Congress this weekend will lay so much emphasis on “reform and opening up,” even as they are forced by the pandemic to do the opposite for now and stimulate the economy via debt-financed fixed investment.…

Bloomberg

Trade War Fears Are Returning to a Virus-Lashed Wall Street

May 04 2020

“In the wake of the pandemic and recession, geopolitics is the next shoe to drop,” BCA Research strategists including Matt Gertken wrote in a Friday note. “Now is not the time to assume global stability.”

Kitco News

Trump victory in November is no longer base-case scenario, here’s why

April 28 2020

The pandemic has made it more difficult for current President Donald Trump to be re-elected in November, this according to Matt Gertken, vice president of geopolitical strategy at BCA Research.

The Sydney Morning Herald

Will investors feel the Bern? Another US political shock could upend global markets

February 21 2020

There is a growing view within sections of the investment community that November’s US election has the potential to deliver a 180-degree reversal in policy and send shockwaves across complacent markets. "This election is an enormous fountain of uncertainty. It’s going to be extremely close," Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at Montreal-based BCA Research, said in an investor presentation in Sydney this week.

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