Matt Gertken

Strategist

Matt is currently BCA Research’s Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy. He oversees the firm’s coverage of market-relevant geopolitical, political, and policy developments across the world. Prior tojoining BCA Research in 2015, Matt worked as a Senior Analyst at Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor) and in various academic and publishing roles. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.

Geopolitical Strategy

BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service provides market-relevant, data-driven, non-partisan, macroeconomic research with geopolitical risk analysis resulting in discretionary trade recommendations for global investors.

Find out more and challenge your investment decisions with our Geopolitical Strategy

Geopolitical Strategy

The Polybius Solution

July 04 2019

Over the next six-to-18 months, the trade war with China should reaccelerate while the U.S. should back away from war with Iran. But for now Persian Gulf risks are coming to the fore. A full-fledged cold war with China will put a cap on American political polarization, putting China at a disadvantage. By contrast, a U.S. war with Iran would exacerbate polarization, giving China a huge strategic opportunity.

Geopolitical Strategy

Is China Already Isolated?

January 23 2019

It is too soon to adopt a cyclical overweight position on Chinese equities. Remain overweight only tactically. China is still maintaining a disciplined approach to economic stimulus.

Geopolitical Strategy

The 2020 U.S. Election: A “Way Too Soon" Forecast

November 07 2018

A gridlocked government is unlikely to produce major change in economic policy. Midterm elections will not determine Trump's reelection chances, rather the timing of the next recession will. BCA Research's House View expects it by 2020. Absent a recession, Donald Trump remains the favored candidate for the 2020 presidential election.

Matt Gertken in the news

Asia Times

US-Iran climbdown gives markets cause for pause

January 09 2020

“Iran is not yet likely to court a full-scale American attack by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz,” said Matt Gertken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, a view widely held by traders and analysts.

Politico

Tensions rise but markets remain calm (for now)

January 06 2020

The risk ahead — BCA Research Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken: “Trump … will not be removed from office by a Republican Senate, his impeachment trial threatens to mar his re-election chances. This is a prime motivation to pursue foreign policy objectives to distract the public and seek policy wins”

MarketWatch

Why some analysts believe oil hitting $100 a barrel soon is unlikely

September 18 2019

... U.S. chooses retaliatory strikes against Iran and its proxies in the region,” said Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, in emailed commentary.

BNN Bloomberg

U.S and China ratchet up trade war

August 29 2019

Heightened trade tensions between U.S. and China have triggered massive market volatility and while U.S. President Trump expressed confidence that the two sides can reach a deal, investors continue to be worried. Matt Gertken, vice president and geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, looks at the mixed messages on the trade war and what it could mean for investors.

BFM - The Business Station

Deal or No Deal?

August 22 2019

The latest on the Brexit front comes from Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, particularly in terms of whether the UK will suffer a No-Deal exit and if so, what the repercussions will be, whether from a trade or immigration standpoint. He also discussed the EU’s economic prospects and how important Germany is to the bloc

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