Matt Gertken, PhD
Matt is BCA Research’s Chief Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy and US Political Strategy. He oversees the firm’s coverage of market-relevant policy developments across the world. He has 16 years’ experience in the field and appears frequently in global news media. Prior to joining BCA in 2015, Matt worked as a Senior Analyst at STRATFOR (Strategic Forecasting) and in a range of academic and publishing roles. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.
BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service provides market-relevant, data-driven, non-partisan, macroeconomic research with geopolitical risk analysis resulting in discretionary trade recommendations for global investors.
All Bets Are Off ... Well, Some (A GeoRisk Update)
January 27 2022
Ukraine’s economy is small but investors rightly worry that an expansion of the still simmering 2014 war there will cause Europe’s energy supply to tighten, pushing up prices and dragging on European demand. Russia would cut off natural gas to Ukraine, which would cut off 6.6% of Europe’s natural gas imports, 18% of Germany’s, 77% of Hungary’s, and 38% of Italy’s.
Downgrading Trumps Odds Of Reelection
March 24 2020
We are downgrading US President Donald Trump’s odds of winning election. We now consider him an underdog. Since November 2018 we had given Trump a 55% chance of victory – and when former Vice President Joe Biden clinched the nomination in the midst of the virus crisis we argued that the election was “too close to call.”
The Polybius Solution
July 04 2019
Over the next six-to-18 months, the trade war with China should reaccelerate while the U.S. should back away from war with Iran. But for now Persian Gulf risks are coming to the fore. A full-fledged cold war with China will put a cap on American political polarization, putting China at a disadvantage. By contrast, a U.S. war with Iran would exacerbate polarization, giving China a huge strategic opportunity.
The 2020 U.S. Election: A “Way Too Soon" Forecast
November 07 2018
A gridlocked government is unlikely to produce major change in economic policy. Midterm elections will not determine Trump's reelection chances, rather the timing of the next recession will. BCA Research's House View expects it by 2020. Absent a recession, Donald Trump remains the favored candidate for the 2020 presidential election.