Matt Gertken

Strategist

Matt is currently BCA Research’s Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy. He oversees the firm’s coverage of market-relevant geopolitical, political, and policy developments across the world. Prior tojoining BCA Research in 2015, Matt worked as a Senior Analyst at Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor) and in various academic and publishing roles. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.

Geopolitical Strategy

BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service provides market-relevant, data-driven, non-partisan, macroeconomic research with geopolitical risk analysis resulting in discretionary trade recommendations for global investors.

Find out more and challenge your investment decisions with our Geopolitical Strategy

Geopolitical Strategy

US Election 2020: Civil War Lite

March 02 2020

After a harrowing year in which global manufacturing slumped due to China’s tight credit policy and Trump’s trade war, the probability of a US recession is now – tentatively – subsiding. This is good news for Trump, whose presidency is hanging by a thread.

Geopolitical Strategy

The Polybius Solution

July 04 2019

Over the next six-to-18 months, the trade war with China should reaccelerate while the U.S. should back away from war with Iran. But for now Persian Gulf risks are coming to the fore. A full-fledged cold war with China will put a cap on American political polarization, putting China at a disadvantage. By contrast, a U.S. war with Iran would exacerbate polarization, giving China a huge strategic opportunity.

Geopolitical Strategy

Is China Already Isolated?

January 23 2019

It is too soon to adopt a cyclical overweight position on Chinese equities. Remain overweight only tactically. China is still maintaining a disciplined approach to economic stimulus.

Geopolitical Strategy

The 2020 U.S. Election: A “Way Too Soon" Forecast

November 07 2018

A gridlocked government is unlikely to produce major change in economic policy. Midterm elections will not determine Trump's reelection chances, rather the timing of the next recession will. BCA Research's House View expects it by 2020. Absent a recession, Donald Trump remains the favored candidate for the 2020 presidential election.

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Matt Gertken in the news

The Sydney Morning Herald

Will investors feel the Bern? Another US political shock could upend global markets

February 21 2020

There is a growing view within sections of the investment community that November’s US election has the potential to deliver a 180-degree reversal in policy and send shockwaves across complacent markets. "This election is an enormous fountain of uncertainty. It’s going to be extremely close," Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at Montreal-based BCA Research, said in an investor presentation in Sydney this week.

Dawn

A crude bull run on crutches

January 13 2020

In an election year, Washington couldn’t have afforded higher prices at gas stations. “President Trump is clearly bound by the election dynamics to ensure the markets are supported and the economy does not suffer an oil shock,” Matt Gertken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research was quoted as saying.

Asia Times

US-Iran climbdown gives markets cause for pause

January 09 2020

“Iran is not yet likely to court a full-scale American attack by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz,” said Matt Gertken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, a view widely held by traders and analysts.

Politico

Tensions rise but markets remain calm (for now)

January 06 2020

The risk ahead — BCA Research Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken: “Trump … will not be removed from office by a Republican Senate, his impeachment trial threatens to mar his re-election chances. This is a prime motivation to pursue foreign policy objectives to distract the public and seek policy wins”

MarketWatch

Why some analysts believe oil hitting $100 a barrel soon is unlikely

September 18 2019

... U.S. chooses retaliatory strikes against Iran and its proxies in the region,” said Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, in emailed commentary.

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