Matt Gertken

Strategist

Matt is currently BCA Research’s Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy. He oversees the firm’s coverage of market-relevant geopolitical, political, and policy developments across the world. Prior tojoining BCA Research in 2015, Matt worked as a Senior Analyst at Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor) and in various academic and publishing roles. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.

Geopolitical Strategy

BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service provides market-relevant, data-driven, non-partisan, macroeconomic research with geopolitical risk analysis resulting in discretionary trade recommendations for global investors.

Find out more and challenge your investment decisions with our Geopolitical Strategy

Geopolitical Strategy

US Election 2020: Civil War Lite

March 02 2020

After a harrowing year in which global manufacturing slumped due to China’s tight credit policy and Trump’s trade war, the probability of a US recession is now – tentatively – subsiding. This is good news for Trump, whose presidency is hanging by a thread.

Geopolitical Strategy

The Polybius Solution

July 04 2019

Over the next six-to-18 months, the trade war with China should reaccelerate while the U.S. should back away from war with Iran. But for now Persian Gulf risks are coming to the fore. A full-fledged cold war with China will put a cap on American political polarization, putting China at a disadvantage. By contrast, a U.S. war with Iran would exacerbate polarization, giving China a huge strategic opportunity.

Geopolitical Strategy

Is China Already Isolated?

January 23 2019

It is too soon to adopt a cyclical overweight position on Chinese equities. Remain overweight only tactically. China is still maintaining a disciplined approach to economic stimulus.

Geopolitical Strategy

The 2020 U.S. Election: A “Way Too Soon" Forecast

November 07 2018

A gridlocked government is unlikely to produce major change in economic policy. Midterm elections will not determine Trump's reelection chances, rather the timing of the next recession will. BCA Research's House View expects it by 2020. Absent a recession, Donald Trump remains the favored candidate for the 2020 presidential election.

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Matt Gertken in the news

Business Insider

Jing Sima and Matt Gertken Named Top 10 Experts on Investing in China

September 07 2021

Investors in Chinese equities have been caught in complete mayhem over the past few months, as a wave of Chinese regulatory crackdowns has wiped off billions in tech stocks. Insider talked to more than a dozen investors including hedge-fund managers and index providers to compile a list of the top China-focused analysts, strategists, and short-sellers they are turning to for guidance.

Barron's

Currencies, Oil Could Feel the Biggest Impact of the U.S. Pivot from Afghanistan to China and Iran

August 18 2021

After the depressing images of the chaos in Kabul fade, U.S. foreign policy will be able to proceed to theaters of greater strategic importance. “We’re at a critical juncture with Iran,” Matt Gertken said in a recent telephone interview with Barron’s

Business Insider

How hedge funds have underestimated risk in China

July 30 2021

China's secular slowdown in their economy combined with their antagonistic relationship with the US is shaking up financial markets, said Matt Gerken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

MoneyWeek

Will the China-US trade war continue?

February 05 2021

"We’re confident it will go sour at some point”, says Matthew Gertken at BCA Research. The first flashpoint could be last year’s “phase-one”.

South China Morning Post

Legally ambiguous ‘VIE’ structure means foreign investors don’t technically own overseas-listed Chinese stocks

December 21 2020

The Biden administration is likely to confront China on bilateral investment issues including the VIE structures at some point, even though the market is now hopeful that the new president will bring some initial reprieve to souring US-China relations when he takes office, according to Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

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