Matt Gertken

Strategist

Matt is currently BCA Research’s Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy. He oversees the firm’s coverage of market-relevant geopolitical, political, and policy developments across the world. Prior tojoining BCA Research in 2015, Matt worked as a Senior Analyst at Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor) and in various academic and publishing roles. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.

Geopolitical Strategy

BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service provides market-relevant, data-driven, non-partisan, macroeconomic research with geopolitical risk analysis resulting in discretionary trade recommendations for global investors.

Find out more and challenge your investment decisions with our Geopolitical Strategy

Geopolitical Strategy

US Election 2020: Civil War Lite

March 02 2020

After a harrowing year in which global manufacturing slumped due to China’s tight credit policy and Trump’s trade war, the probability of a US recession is now – tentatively – subsiding. This is good news for Trump, whose presidency is hanging by a thread.

Geopolitical Strategy

The Polybius Solution

July 04 2019

Over the next six-to-18 months, the trade war with China should reaccelerate while the U.S. should back away from war with Iran. But for now Persian Gulf risks are coming to the fore. A full-fledged cold war with China will put a cap on American political polarization, putting China at a disadvantage. By contrast, a U.S. war with Iran would exacerbate polarization, giving China a huge strategic opportunity.

Geopolitical Strategy

Is China Already Isolated?

January 23 2019

It is too soon to adopt a cyclical overweight position on Chinese equities. Remain overweight only tactically. China is still maintaining a disciplined approach to economic stimulus.

Geopolitical Strategy

The 2020 U.S. Election: A “Way Too Soon" Forecast

November 07 2018

A gridlocked government is unlikely to produce major change in economic policy. Midterm elections will not determine Trump's reelection chances, rather the timing of the next recession will. BCA Research's House View expects it by 2020. Absent a recession, Donald Trump remains the favored candidate for the 2020 presidential election.

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Matt Gertken in the news

Barron's

U.S. Is Tightening the Noose on Huawei. Why the Market Shouldn’t Shrug Off the News.

August 18 2020

Stock traders have grown accustomed to ignoring much worse news over the past few months, observes Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research. “Last year this would have caused a pretty big sell-off,” he says. “Now we’re injecting economies with so much stimulus that we’re not feeling the pain.”

Asia Times

Markets eye US stimulus after China data disappointment

August 14 2020

“All eyes are now set on Washington as markets eagerly await fiscal stimulus. This crystal clear constraint is why our Geopolitical Strategy service maintains that a deal will ultimately be reached,” BCA Research economists said in a note, referring to Republicans and Democrats willingness to compromise with an eye to achieving different objectives.

Bloomberg Radio

Remdesivir Needs More Tests Before Going All In: Bach

July 13 2020

Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, on why Trump needs to side with the Dems and go big on the next round of stimulus. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn.

Yahoo Finance

If Trump doesn't move to console the nation, here's what may happen to his precious stock market

June 15 2020

“So does it [social unrest] justify a correction further what we’ve seen recently? Yeah, possibly this correction could go further,” said Matthew Gerken, a geopolitical strategist at independent research outfit BCA Research. Gerken said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade the odds are high we could see a 10% correction as the market bakes in the impact of social unrest on the already battered economy.

Market Watch

Strategists who predicted the U.S. would ‘see a revolt of some kind by the 2020 election’ says U.S. in ‘danger zone’ and stocks will suffer

June 13 2020

America has lurched from one crisis to the next in 2020, knocking many people, even professional forecasters, off their feet. But not Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist for BCA Research.

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