Matt Gertken, PhD

Chief Strategist

Matt is BCA Research’s Chief Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy and US Political Strategy. He oversees the firm’s coverage of market-relevant policy developments across the world. He has 16 years’ experience in the field and appears frequently in global news media. Prior to joining BCA in 2015, Matt worked as a Senior Analyst at STRATFOR (Strategic Forecasting) and in a range of academic and publishing roles. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.

Geopolitical Strategy

BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service provides market-relevant, data-driven, non-partisan, macroeconomic research with geopolitical risk analysis resulting in discretionary trade recommendations for global investors.

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Geopolitical Strategy

All Bets Are Off ... Well, Some (A GeoRisk Update)

January 27 2022

Ukraine’s economy is small but investors rightly worry that an expansion of the still simmering 2014 war there will cause Europe’s energy supply to tighten, pushing up prices and dragging on European demand. Russia would cut off natural gas to Ukraine, which would cut off 6.6% of Europe’s natural gas imports, 18% of Germany’s, 77% of Hungary’s, and 38% of Italy’s.

Geopolitical Strategy

Downgrading Trumps Odds Of Reelection

March 24 2020

We are downgrading US President Donald Trump’s odds of winning election. We now consider him an underdog. Since November 2018 we had given Trump a 55% chance of victory – and when former Vice President Joe Biden clinched the nomination in the midst of the virus crisis we argued that the election was “too close to call.”

Geopolitical Strategy

The Polybius Solution

July 04 2019

Over the next six-to-18 months, the trade war with China should reaccelerate while the U.S. should back away from war with Iran. But for now Persian Gulf risks are coming to the fore. A full-fledged cold war with China will put a cap on American political polarization, putting China at a disadvantage. By contrast, a U.S. war with Iran would exacerbate polarization, giving China a huge strategic opportunity.

Geopolitical Strategy

Is China Already Isolated?

January 23 2019

It is too soon to adopt a cyclical overweight position on Chinese equities. Remain overweight only tactically. China is still maintaining a disciplined approach to economic stimulus.

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Matt Gertken in the news

Yicai - China

Trump struggles to release FBI search video

August 18 2022

Matt Gertken, chief U.S. political strategist at investment consulting firm BCA Research, said in an interview with China Business News that despite Trump's many controversies, about 80% of Republicans currently have a favorable opinion of Trump; Trump has weaknesses and will face other challengers to the Republican nomination, but unless disqualified, he will remain the favorite.

Financial Times

Russia's Energy Squeeze on Europe thaws Icy UK-EU Relations

August 11 2022

"I think the main driving factor now is the Ukraine war and the fallout, and the fact that the EU will be forced by its own strategic needs to diversify away from Russian energy. That will swamp the effects of Brexit,” says Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

Blooomberg

Sanctioning Russia energy in Europe could lead to continental recession

April 29 2022

Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the geopolitical risks ahead of the financial global markets. He notes there is still uncertainty to come and that sanctioning Russia energy in Europe could lead to a continental recession.

Business Insider

Jing Sima and Matt Gertken Named Top 10 Experts on Investing in China

September 07 2021

Investors in Chinese equities have been caught in complete mayhem over the past few months, as a wave of Chinese regulatory crackdowns has wiped off billions in tech stocks. Insider talked to more than a dozen investors including hedge-fund managers and index providers to compile a list of the top China-focused analysts, strategists, and short-sellers they are turning to for guidance.

Barron's

Currencies, Oil Could Feel the Biggest Impact of the U.S. Pivot from Afghanistan to China and Iran

August 18 2021

After the depressing images of the chaos in Kabul fade, U.S. foreign policy will be able to proceed to theaters of greater strategic importance. “We’re at a critical juncture with Iran,” Matt Gertken said in a recent telephone interview with Barron’s

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