Matt Gertken

Strategist

Matt is currently BCA Research’s Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy. He oversees the firm’s coverage of market-relevant geopolitical, political, and policy developments across the world. Prior tojoining BCA Research in 2015, Matt worked as a Senior Analyst at Strategic Forecasting, Inc (Stratfor) and in various academic and publishing roles. Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin.

Geopolitical Strategy

BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service provides market-relevant, data-driven, non-partisan, macroeconomic research with geopolitical risk analysis resulting in discretionary trade recommendations for global investors.

Find out more and challenge your investment decisions with our Geopolitical Strategy

Geopolitical Strategy

US Election 2020: Civil War Lite

March 02 2020

After a harrowing year in which global manufacturing slumped due to China’s tight credit policy and Trump’s trade war, the probability of a US recession is now – tentatively – subsiding. This is good news for Trump, whose presidency is hanging by a thread.

Geopolitical Strategy

The Polybius Solution

July 04 2019

Over the next six-to-18 months, the trade war with China should reaccelerate while the U.S. should back away from war with Iran. But for now Persian Gulf risks are coming to the fore. A full-fledged cold war with China will put a cap on American political polarization, putting China at a disadvantage. By contrast, a U.S. war with Iran would exacerbate polarization, giving China a huge strategic opportunity.

Geopolitical Strategy

Is China Already Isolated?

January 23 2019

It is too soon to adopt a cyclical overweight position on Chinese equities. Remain overweight only tactically. China is still maintaining a disciplined approach to economic stimulus.

Geopolitical Strategy

The 2020 U.S. Election: A “Way Too Soon" Forecast

November 07 2018

A gridlocked government is unlikely to produce major change in economic policy. Midterm elections will not determine Trump's reelection chances, rather the timing of the next recession will. BCA Research's House View expects it by 2020. Absent a recession, Donald Trump remains the favored candidate for the 2020 presidential election.

View more insights

Matt Gertken in the news

South China Morning Post

Legally ambiguous ‘VIE’ structure means foreign investors don’t technically own overseas-listed Chinese stocks

December 21 2020

The Biden administration is likely to confront China on bilateral investment issues including the VIE structures at some point, even though the market is now hopeful that the new president will bring some initial reprieve to souring US-China relations when he takes office, according to Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

Financial Times

Firepower boosts equity markets on back of Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough

November 14 2020

“The vaccine announcement supercharged the ‘return to normalcy’ rally that followed the US election,” said Matt Gertken, a strategist at BCA Research. “It will take time to distribute these vaccines but the world can look toward economic recovery next year.”

Barron's

Why the Best Approach to Your Portfolio May Be One That Doesn’t Pick Sides

November 06 2020

In a briefing on Friday, Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, put the probability of Democrats winning both of Georgia’s Senate seats for a 50-50 Senate split at 25%. But he cautioned against investors taking an aggressively risk-on position until there is clarity on multiple fronts, including the types of policies, such as those related to China, that the Trump administration could push through in the months ahead of inauguration.

Yahoo! News

Why Trump’s COVID-19 battle could result in electoral ‘chaos’ or become an ‘ironic plus’

October 03 2020

“As long as he recovers, this is good news for Trump’s election odds. It distracts from his first debate performance and gets him at least some sympathy regarding the pandemic,” said Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, on Friday.

Market Watch

Here’s what President Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis means for stock-market volatility — so far

October 02 2020

Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, outlined a number of ways in which getting coronavirus could be “good news for Trump’s election odds” with the important caveat being that he survives the illness.

Our client website is updated daily and available whenever and wherever you are

Consume our research on your desktop or apps for your tablet and smartphone.

Explore our research