Dhaval Joshi

The David Lin Report

The David Lin Report: Dhaval Joshi unpacks Counterpoint’s unique fractal analysis of markets

April 17 2023

Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist of Counterpoint at BCA Research, discusses the signs of a coming recession, as well as the sectors that are expected to outperform during an economic downturn.

The Guardian

The Guardian: Dhaval Joshi shares his views on the potential fallout resulting from the banking crisis

March 19 2023

Silicon Valley Bank's collapse willl not be a one-off-a banking crisis was long overdue

Financial Times

The Biggest Mistake in Finance? How to Measure Real Interest Rates

May 04 2022

The Fed wants to tighten financial conditions, and that’s best measured by the real interest rate — the baseline rates that are payable after inflation. The problem: How do you measure those real rates, and are the markets judgments trustworthy?

The Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Joshi says durable goods driving inflation

April 26 2022

Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, talks about inflation and how he believes the drivers for it have peaked, which should mean it begins easing significantly, even if that doesn't show up in the measures for a while.

Bloomberg

The Bond Market’s Weird and Scary Breakdown Is Still a Riddle

March 22 2021

Dhaval Joshi, European strategist at BCA Research Inc., suggests this is a major market inefficiency, as oil prices and inflation forecasts should be negatively rather than positively correlated. He shows that moves in the oil price do tend to have an impact on realized inflation over the next decade, but not in the direction we might expect. Higher oil prices mean lower subsequent inflation, and vice versa.

MarketWatch

This is the key question that will determine whether stimulus money overheats the economy

March 19 2021

Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, says whether the new stimulus is considered wealth or income depends on whether the household receiving it has a low or high income to begin with. But looking at past stimulus checks, there weren’t meaningful shifts in either consumption or inflation.

Capital.com

S&P 500: the long bounce-back continues

February 23 2021

Dhaval Joshi, analyst at independent research firm BCA Research, has written that: “The core tenet is that the stock market goes up because profits go up. This tenet is under threat because, since 2008, the global stock market has nearly doubled while profits have gone nowhere.”

MarketWatch

The rational bubble is turning irrational — and the next few weeks are critical, strategist says

February 19 2021

Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist for BCA Research, has said for some time that low yields meant the rally into stocks and other assets, made sense — a rational bubble, if you will. “Rational, because the nosebleed valuations are justified by a fundamental driver. And not just any fundamental driver, but the most fundamental driver of all – the bond yield,” he writes.

The Wall Street Journal

Renewed Demand for Treasurys Quells Fears of Rising Rates—for Now

January 27 2021

“We’re at this point of potential fragility,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research. Going forward, he said, yields and stocks could make modest adjustments to normalize their relationship, or there could be “a more destructive solution where the yield overshoots and the market at some point panics.”

Bloomberg

Ponzi-Stage Stocks Are Stable. Just Don't Cough

January 08 2021

Just how can the bond market rein in the stock market, though? BCA Research Inc.’s strategist Dhaval Joshi offers the following model, based on the spread between the forward earnings yield (inverse of the P/E) of global technology stocks and the 10-year Treasury yield.

Financial Times

UK economists’ survey: recovery will be slower than in peer countries

January 03 2021

Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research: Absent further shocks, the UK economy can expect to regain its pre-pandemic size in the second half of 2021.

Financial Times

UK economists’ survey: recovery will be slower than in peer countries

January 03 2021

Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research: Absent further shocks, the UK economy can expect to regain its pre-pandemic size in the second half of 2021.

Financial Times

UK economists’ survey: recovery will be slower than in peer countries

January 03 2021

Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research: Absent further shocks, the UK economy can expect to regain its pre-pandemic size in the second half of 2021.

Market Watch

This bond-market signal will tell investors when it’s time to sell stocks, says strategist

November 19 2020

Our call of the day from BCA Research’s chief European strategist Dhaval Joshi lays out some clear-cut advice: Sell stocks and head to the sidelines if the U.S. 10-year bond yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.854% rises another 30 basis points.

The Guardian

Markets plunge in uncertainty about a second term and a second wave

October 31 2020

As Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research, says, consumers who cannot use their nose or mouth in close proximity to others are hardly consumers at all.

Financial Times

US stocks join global rally fuelled by upbeat signs on world economy

September 28 2020

"Whether new restrictions are announced or not, “it’s the resurgence of the pandemic that’s going to cause people to change their behaviour and the market has cottoned on to that in the last couple of weeks,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research."

London Mail

Public sector pay rises 4.5% as private sector salaries fall

September 20 2020

Figures due on Friday will highlight the continuing damage to the public finances from the emergency response to the pandemic They will cover the state of the Government’s coffers in August and are expected to show further deterioration, according to Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research.

Investment Week

The latest 'They Think It's All Over' moment

September 09 2020

I have written before about how a generation of investors are struggling with what they view as normal. According to Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research: "In the 34 years through 1975-2008, value trebled relative to growth [in total return terms]. Albeit, with the occasional vicious countertrend move, such as the dot com bubble.

Reuters

Buy, sell, repeat! No room for 'hold' in whipsawing markets

August 03 2020

And when short-term returns are so attractive, it makes little sense to hold assets for longer. Returns on 10-year Treasuries in the first 2020 quarter almost matched what would mathematically accrue after a decade, BCA Research strategist Dhaval Joshi noted.

Financial Times

Further steps lower for Italian yields

July 23 2020

Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research argues that unlike sector-dominated equities, currencies “have a much stronger connection with domestic economics and politics”.

CNBC

Parts of the market have run too far ahead of reality

June 26 2020

Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist for European investment strategy at BCA Research, discusses equity markets.

Reuters

Prepping portfolios for next market storm? Not just gold and govvies

June 08 2020

“A stronger cross-asset correlation is the worst nightmare for any portfolio manager, and this has been a defining feature of this crisis, prompting the search for alternative assets,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA.

Financial Times

Investors should choose carefully which dip to buy

January 31 2020

Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research argues lower yields should persist for at least the first half of the year, making asset allocation decisions relatively clear. “Ultra-low bond yields justify and underpin the valuation of equities,” he said. He thinks long-term investors should pounce on corrections to increase their exposure to stocks at the expense of bonds.

CNBC International

We’ve seen the sharpest rise in European yields in 3 years

January 29 2020

Dhaval Joshi, a strategist at BCA Research, said the recent acceleration in European bond yields has been a source of concern.

Daily Mail

Pound soars as booming job figures slash chances of an interest rate cut later this month

January 21 2020

Dhaval Joshi, of consultancy BCA Research, said: 'The Bank says it is watching all incoming data, and these figures would certainly warrant a delay in cutting interest rates. 'It is significant that the MPC meeting takes place the day before Britain is due to leave the EU. 'Of course, not much will change immediately, but I suspect the Bank would prefer not to make any moves less than 24 hours before Brexit. 'It could look almost as if it were passing a comment on Brexit. The optics would not be good.'

Financial Times

Why the ‘Boris bounce’ is likely to be shortlived

January 06 2020

Any Boris bounce is likely to be shortlived. The government will have “got Brexit done” on January 31, but only in the narrow legal sense. In the more important economic sense, there is still no clarity on the type of relationship the UK will have with the EU once the standstill transition period ends on December 31.

Financial Times

Investment outlooks hinge on deciphering conflicting signals

December 05 2019

Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research highlights that “the two components of profits, sales and profit margins, will start 2020 at elevated levels” for global...