Arthur Budaghyan

NBC New York

Chile Has Outperformed Other Emerging Markets and the S&P 500 This Year.

October 14 2022

For macro investors, Chile is one of the interesting countries in the emerging market universe to deploy, according to BCA Research's Arthur Budaghyan.

CNBC

How is China impacted by the current U.S. economic situation and stronger dollar?

September 27 2022

BCA Research Chief Emerging Markets Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan provides his analysis to CNBC Asia's Tanvir Gill and Will Koulouris

Barron's

Brazil’s Stocks Could Keep Climbing When Election Jitters Pass

September 23 2022

Bolsonaro eroded a spending cap that kept budgets in check, and Lula wants to chuck it altogether. “Brazil’s Goldilocks phase of economic recovery will be short-lived,” warns Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research. “The country will re-enter a period of stagflation.”

Businessworld

Is India Experiencing Genuine Inflation Outbreak?

July 22 2022

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is targeting headline inflation, but the recent rise in India’s inflation does not appear to be broad-based, according to Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Emerging Markets Strategist at BCA Research in this BW Businessworld op-ed. The fundamentals for genuine inflation – wage growth, higher household consumption, food scarcity, among others – are not there. Hiking rates may cause a bear market.

Asia Financial

China Stocks in US Are Back, Trounce Nasdaq 100

July 15 2022

"Some argued the regulatory crackdown on these stocks is over, pushing their prices up in the past couple of months,” says Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Strategist, Emerging Markets Strategy with BCA Research. “But when Beijing imposed penalties on Alibaba and Tencent early this week, it reminded investors about regulatory risks."

NPR

BCA’s Budagyhan believes Russian stock market will be driven by domestic investors

March 25 2022

The response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine a month ago was fast and damaging to the country's economy. Sanctions placed on Russia by the United States and its partners forced the ruble's value to crumble and the Central Bank of Russia to close the country's stock market.

CNBC

China’s economy is now basically ‘standing on one leg’: Strategist

October 14 2021

Evergrande’s debt crisis poses long-term risks to China despite the current fallout being limited to only the high-yield bond market, says Jing Sima of BCA Research

South China Morning Post

China stocks downgraded by BCA Research on ‘non-trivial’ risk of policy overtightening

March 18 2021

China’s stocks have been downgraded on a one-year outlook by analysts at Montreal, Canada-based firm BCA Research, who cited “high risk” policy overtightening and weakening technical indicators as their reasons, as the government pulls back policy support this year. “The downside risks to China’s cyclical growth trajectory are non-trivial”, potentially threatening the economy and corporate profits, analysts led by Jing Sima wrote in a March 17 report to clients. “A tug of war between policy tightening and growth support is likely to persist throughout this year."

CNBC

The arbitrage window between A-shares and H-shares has ‘closed,’ says strategist

March 14 2021

Jing Sima of BCA Research says investors should look at Chinese companies that could benefit from global growth as domestic economic momentum has either peaked or is reaching that point.

S&P Global

China banks to lend more as nation seeks self-reliance in tech, domestic demand

March 11 2021

There may be isolated risks of rising nonperforming loans related to the real estate sector, particularly among the small and medium-sized banks," said Jing Sima, China investment strategist at BCA Research.

Barron's

U.S. Interest Rates Are Rising. Why Emerging Markets Aren’t Worried—Yet

February 12 2021

Emerging markets themselves are in better shape to withstand some centripetal force than in 2013, adds Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research. “Then you had large current account deficits and overvalued currencies across EM,” he says. “The vulnerabilities now are much less.”

CNBC Asia

China stocks could pull back as investors are complacent in their policy expectations, strategist says

February 01 2021

Investors in China’s markets have been “a bit complacent” in the expectations of the policy outlook in the country, argues BCA Research’s Jing Sima

CNBC Asia

The breadth of the market rally and policy environment are key factors that could suggest an upcoming correction for China market, says Jing Sima from BCA Research. She also discusses the areas where she remains long on.

January 29 2021

The breadth of the market rally and policy environment are key factors that could suggest an upcoming correction for China market, says Jing Sima from BCA Research. She also discusses the areas where she remains long on.

Asia Financial Times

Markets bruised by long-short battle

January 29 2021

The dizzying gains attained over the past few days by the likes of GME, AMC and NAKD on the back of Reddit-engineered short squeezes have raised hopes of similar gains elsewhere,” said Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Emerging Markets Strategist at BCA Research. “Instead, the message from market sentiment and positioning indicators is that equities are ripe for a correction.

CNBC

South Korean stocks had their best year in more than a decade in 2020

January 03 2021

Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging market strategist at BCA Research, said the South Korean stock market got a boost from its diverse composition of tech and industrial companies.

CNBC

We don’t think Chinese stocks will do well in 2021

December 23 2020

Chinese stocks will underperform in 2021 as 3 major factors supporting the market will be absent next year, says Jing Sima of BCA Research.

South China Morning Post

China’s market-beating liquor stocks fancied by money managers keep others wary of valuation

December 07 2020

The fallout may be short-term headwinds to economic recovery and the stock market's performance, analysts Xu Qingyun and Jing Sima wrote in a December 2 report. "A peak in the country's business cycle will probably be reached by mid-2021," they said.

CNBC

Regulatory crackdowns in Chinese technology sector to favor tech giants

November 18 2020

Jing Sima from BCA Research explains how China’s regulatory crackdown on technology companies will “raise the bar” for new players in the sector.

Barron's

It May Be Time to Dip Into Thailand’s Stock Market. Tread Lightly.

October 23 2020

But King Maha Vajiralongkorn, who has milked royal assets more aggressively since ascending in 2016, has offered no conciliatory gesture. The conflict is too deep-seated for a quick fix, says Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research. “The ruling elite’s fight against the poor people is not going away,” he says. “That’s why the Thai economy will underperform.”

South China Morning Post

China’s stock market approaches 2018 peak on recovery tonic as valuation hurdle evokes 2015 pain

October 19 2020

That may prompt the central bank to raise its policy rate by as much as 50 basis points in 2021, which may not be a bad thing, its China strategist Jing Sima wrote in an October 14 report to clients. Stocks have moved in lockstep with rising interest rates and bond yields, a relationship that has strengthened since the market crash of 2015.

Financial Times

Beware what comes after the easy money binge

September 07 2020

Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA, argued that, over time, excessive stimulus and easy money policies led either to asset bubbles or a burst of inflation. Both outcomes “bode ill for share prices in the long run”, he said.

Financial Times

A wave of liquidity will continue to wash over emerging markets

June 21 2020

Not everyone wants to ride this wave. Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging market strategist at BCA Research, describes what is happening as a “FOMO-driven mania”. With markets pumped up on trillions of dollars of liquidity, fear of missing out is driving US retail investors to bet their stimulus cheques on companies apparently heading into bankruptcy. Institutional investors, he said, have had little choice but to join in, and their thirst for yield has driven portfolio flows back into emerging markets after they experienced record-breaking outflows in March.

South China Morning Post

Buying frenzy takes China’s stock market close to US$10 trillion

June 18 2020

“We recommend our clients to buy the dip if Chinese stocks fall by 5 to 10 per cent from current levels in the near term, which is likely to happen in our baseline view,” said Jing Sima, China strategist at BCA Research. “If Chinese stock prices consecutively fall by more than 15 per cent, however, a bear market is likely to follow.”

CNN Business

Chinese stocks are on an incredible run. But going too high, too fast is risky

June 10 2020

"The decoupling between stock prices and economic fundamentals is not a 'China phenomenon' per se, but a global one," said Jing Sima, a China investment strategist at BCA Research. "In fact, Chinese stocks have not diverged from domestic economic fundamentals as much as their global peers."

ETF Trends

With Emerging Markets Perking up, Consider This ETF

June 05 2020

“While the mania could last longer and go further than fundamentals may suggest, Arthur Budaghyan, BCA Research’s Chief Emerging Markets wrote in a client note Thursday that a weaker than expected global recovery and rising tensions between the U.S. and China pose two big risks that will continue to weigh on emerging markets ‘after this recent mania phase runs out steam,’” reports Reshema Kapadia for Barron’s.

Asia Times

Economic data this week to reveal coronavirus damage

May 04 2020

“An oil price collapse generates a formidable deflationary force, which will further depress China’s industrial pricing power and profit growth in Q2,” Jing Sima, China Strategist at BCA Research, said.

IPE

Fixed Income & Credit: Potential for adventures

April 09 2020

Brazil has seen a meaningful rise in local currency corporate bond issuance in the recent years and there are small local currency corporate bond markets in India. China is the behemoth that dominates this asset class and outside these countries, the asset class is almost non-existent, points out Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research. The focus therefore has to be on China for the foreseeable future, although it is only a matter of time before other markets develop in size to become potential investment destinations.

Asia Times

Bond investors swarm to China, a safe harbor

April 07 2020

“The inflow data in the Bond Connect report shows two trends, there is gradual increase in foreign investors’ Chinese bond holdings, indicating steady foreign investors’ appetite for Chinese bonds,” said Jing Sima, China Investment Strategist at BCA Research.

City A.M.

Asian stocks fall as coronavirus fears return

April 01 2020

Analysts at investment adviser BCA Research said it was downgrading its call on Chinese stocks from “overweight” to “neutral”. Jing Sima, china strategist at BCA Research, said equities had not fallen enough in China to re-enter the market in uncertain times. “Chinese stocks need to either offer a better price entry point, or a more upside potential in earnings outlook relative to their global peers.”

Barron's

Emerging Markets Have Been Battered. The Worst May Be Yet to Come.

March 27 2020

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index exchange-traded fund (ticker: EEM) is down 26% this year, but in a note to clients, Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research, still recommends investors take caution. “It might be too late to sell emerging market stocks, but also too risky to buy them aggressively” he writes.

South China Morning Post

China consumers, small firms shy away from borrowing even as Beijing readies more support

March 12 2020

Jing Sima, China strategist at BCA Research, however warned there was a risk that the PBOC could underestimate the impact on small businesses if it did not ease monetary policy sufficiently.

South China Morning Post

China consumers, small firms shy away from borrowing even as Beijing readies more support

March 12 2020

Jing Sima, China strategist at BCA Research, however warned there was a risk that the PBOC could underestimate the impact on small businesses if it did not ease monetary policy sufficiently.

City A.M.

FTSE 100 and oil prices gain on reports of coronavirus vaccine 'breakthrough'

February 05 2020

Jing Sima, China strategist at investment researcher BCA Research, said there were some positive signs that the virus was being adequately tackled. “The economic impact on China from the outbreak will be large, but manufacturing activities in the majority of Chinese cities should resume by the end of February,” she said.

City A.M.

FTSE 100 and oil prices gain on reports of coronavirus vaccine 'breakthrough'

February 05 2020

Jing Sima, China strategist at investment researcher BCA Research, said there were some positive signs that the virus was being adequately tackled. “The economic impact on China from the outbreak will be large, but manufacturing activities in the majority of Chinese cities should resume by the end of February,” she said.

Bloomberg

Byron Wien Likes China Stocks Even If No More Trade Progress

January 09 2020

Within the past month, several gauges of Chinese stocks have broken above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since trade talks collapsed in May, according to BCA Research, which anticipates modest further gains for the Chinese yuan. “More accommodative monetary and fiscal support in 2020, as well as an ongoing truce, provide a sound basis to overweight China’s stocks within a global equity portfolio,” analysts including Qingyun Xu and Jing Sima wrote in a research report dated Thursday.

Barron's

Chile Loses Star Status Among Investors After Anti-Government Protests

January 01 2020

"We are witnessing a structural regime shift in Chile,” says Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research. “There will have to be income ...

Bloomberg

This U.S. Stocks Melt-Up Rests on Faith in Low Rates

December 20 2019

BCA Research Inc.’s veteran emerging markets strategist Arthur Budaghyan has been (correctly) bearish ever since 2010, but this week announced that he was recommending going long…However, he is still arguing on fundamental grounds that emerging markets will underperform the U.S. and developed markets

Bloomberg

Safest Bond in Latin America Suddenly Looks Lot Less Stable

November 08 2019

“Chilean markets, the economy, social-political system are undergoing regime shift,” said Arthur Budaghyan, the chief emerging-market strategist at BCA Research Inc. in Montreal.

Financial Times

China’s ‘helicopter money’ is blowing up a bubble

August 30 2019

The escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China has raised the likelihood of greater stimulus by Beijing to prop up the economy. While China’s excessive debt isn’t news, investors must wake up to the reality of “helicopter money” — enormous money creation by Chinese banks “out of thin air”.

The Wall Street Journal

Midwest Construction Activity Hammered by Flooding

April 23 2019

China's structural advantages have dissipated.

The Wall Street Journal

Stock Investors Are Betting on the Housing Market Rebound

April 05 2019

We have yet to see improvements in China's hard data reports.