BCA Research in the news

Petroleum Economist

Oil demand to rebound in 2020

January 13 2020

Oil prices in 2020 will recover smartly from late 2019 levels, as demand regains its mojo and supply growth continues to moderate. A weaker US dollar—brought about by globally accommodative monetary policies and a reduction in economic policy uncertainty—also will support prices.

Reuters

CANADA FX DEBT-Canadian dollar weakens to 8-day low as oil prices slide

January 09 2020

"The weakness in oil prices has been a key contributor. Also, the strength in the U.S. dollar," said Mathieu Savary, strategist at BCA Research.

Asia Times

US-Iran climbdown gives markets cause for pause

January 09 2020

“Iran is not yet likely to court a full-scale American attack by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz,” said Matt Gertken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, a view widely held by traders and analysts.

Politico

Tensions rise but markets remain calm (for now)

January 06 2020

The risk ahead — BCA Research Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken: “Trump … will not be removed from office by a Republican Senate, his impeachment trial threatens to mar his re-election chances. This is a prime motivation to pursue foreign policy objectives to distract the public and seek policy wins”

Financial Times

Why the ‘Boris bounce’ is likely to be shortlived

January 06 2020

Any Boris bounce is likely to be shortlived. The government will have “got Brexit done” on January 31, but only in the narrow legal sense. In the more important economic sense, there is still no clarity on the type of relationship the UK will have with the EU once the standstill transition period ends on December 31.

Market Watch

Here are 3 things to watch as Fed’s balance sheet expands in 2020

January 06 2020

“It is very likely that, in 2020, the Fed will take steps to make banks increasingly indifferent between holding reserves and Treasury securities,” wrote a BCA Research team led by Ryan Swift, in a recent report. Ultimately, much depends on how quickly the Fed gets to a reserve level it likes. Where do current levels stand? Since September, banking reserves held at the central bank have grown by about $260 billion to $1.66 trillion as of Dec. 25, according to Fed data, which is roughly where Deutsche Bank analysts expect the Fed to target reserve balances for much of 2020.