BCA Research in the news

The David Lin Report

How Russia-China Alliance Will Challenge U.S. Empire

July 10 2023

Matt Gertken, Chief Strategist of Geopolitical Strategy and U.S. Political Strategy of BCA Research, discusses the deteriorating power of Russia, and China's economic and political instabilities.

Businesswire

BCA Research Launches Private Markets & Alternative Service

June 06 2023

BCA Research Inc, a Delinian company and a leading independent provider of global investment research, today announced the launch of BCA Private Markets & Alternatives Service

Can Eurozone consumer discretionary stocks continue to march higher?

May 29 2023

For equity investors, bigger is not always better, especially when the entire market's returns rely so much on so few mega stocks.

CNBC

AI Benefits Will Come To Companies With Network Effects

May 26 2023

Peter Berezin highlights the opportunities with artificial intelligence and the industries that will benefit most from the AI boom. Companies producing AI products and companies who use these products to cut cost will benefit immediately. AI driven supply boom will lead to unemployment and deflation globally.

The David Lin Report

Doomsayers Are Wrong About An Economic Collapse Soon

May 23 2023

Doug Peta, Chief U.S. Strategist of BCA Research, outlines his thesis about why a recession won't hit the U.S. in 2023, and why investors should stay overweight equities for now.

50/50 chance A.I. will wipe out all of humanity

May 12 2023

Peter Berezin, BCA chief global strategist, joins ‘Power Lunch’ to discuss the future of A.I.

The David Lin Report

The David Lin Report: Dhaval Joshi unpacks Counterpoint’s unique fractal analysis of markets

April 17 2023

Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist of Counterpoint at BCA Research, discusses the signs of a coming recession, as well as the sectors that are expected to outperform during an economic downturn.

The Guardian

The Guardian: Dhaval Joshi shares his views on the potential fallout resulting from the banking crisis

March 19 2023

Silicon Valley Bank's collapse willl not be a one-off-a banking crisis was long overdue

Insider

Fortune: Irene Tunkel discusses the short term outlook for interest rates

March 12 2023

The rally in tech is set to fade after a red-hot start to 2023, but analysts say one area will keep thriving.

Allnews

Mathieu Savary shares his views on possible rate hikes by the European Central Bank, and monetary policy at Swiss National Bank

March 07 2023

Mathieu Savary shares his views on possible rate hikes by the European Central Bank, and monetary policy at Swiss National Bank

Bloomberg

Roukaya Ibrahim discusses the short-term macro-economic outlook for various economies including the US, Japan and China

February 13 2023

Bloomberg Surveillance: Early Edition, live from London and New York. Francine Lacqua, Anna Edwards, and Matt Miller deliver the latest news and analysis on the markets with leaders in global finance and economics. American Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow Elisabeth Braw discusses geopolitical developments as the US military downs more flying objects. BCA Research Daily Insights Strategist Roukaya Ibrahim sees mixed messages in the economy. (Source: Bloomberg)

Bloomberg

BCA’s Mathieu Savary discuss investor’s inflation fears, expectations for a recession, and investment opportunities

January 01 2023

BCA’s Mathieu Savary discuss investor’s inflation fears, expectations for a recession, and investment opportunities

Sun

World Cup Supercomputer reveals how Cristiano Ronaldo is set to struggle… with England heading for more penalty pain

October 27 2022

An experiment conducted by BCA Research has found that Argentina will be the winners in Qatar, according to the data collected.

South China Morning Post

Chinese state-run newspaper seeks to shore up confidence, highlighting pledges by top lenders to finance real economy

October 17 2022

Chinese policymakers are likely to continue to ease policy further to stimulate the domestic economy however, weak private sector sentiment will reduce the effectiveness of these efforts, according to analysts at BCA Research.

NBC New York

Chile Has Outperformed Other Emerging Markets and the S&P 500 This Year.

October 14 2022

For macro investors, Chile is one of the interesting countries in the emerging market universe to deploy, according to BCA Research's Arthur Budaghyan.

Institutional Investor

BCA’s Mathieu Savary tells investors what to watch for amid rising rates, rattled bonds and depressed equities

October 14 2022

LeMonde

Pourquoi l’économie du Royaume-Uni est saisie d’un vent de panique

September 28 2022

Major financial alert in the UK - BCA Research Chief European Strategist Mathieu Savary, CFA comments on the viability of the UK government's budget.

CNBC

How is China impacted by the current U.S. economic situation and stronger dollar?

September 27 2022

BCA Research Chief Emerging Markets Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan provides his analysis to CNBC Asia's Tanvir Gill and Will Koulouris

South China Morning Post

Hong Kong stocks struggle at 11-year low as traders eye market intervention amid currency slump, recession worries

September 27 2022

“The big risk of leaning against dollar strength is a recession that spreads from Europe, the UK, and China and becomes global,” strategists at BCA Research said in a report. “The dollar tends to do well during recessions, even after a prolonged bout of strength.”

CNBC

S&P 500 ends Tuesday down after notching a fresh bear market low, Dow slips more than 100 points

September 27 2022

“The Bank of England’s Monday pledge that ‘the MPC will not hesitate to change interest rates by as much as needed to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term’ failed to reassure investors hoping for an emergency rate hike,” BCA Research said in a note.

Barron's

Brazil’s Stocks Could Keep Climbing When Election Jitters Pass

September 23 2022

Bolsonaro eroded a spending cap that kept budgets in check, and Lula wants to chuck it altogether. “Brazil’s Goldilocks phase of economic recovery will be short-lived,” warns Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research. “The country will re-enter a period of stagflation.”

Wall Street Journal

Rising Interest Rates Squeeze Stocks on Both Sides, Constraining Earnings, Multiples

September 20 2022

Stocks fell and government bond yields rose to multiyear highs Tuesday ahead of the next decision by the Fed's rate-setting committee

Allnews

Quand le monde semble jouer à la roulette russe

September 15 2022

«Dans l’éventualité d’un conflit à Taïwan, le Kremlin pourrait se montrer plus agressif envers l’Europe», estime Matt Gertken de BCA Research.

US News

Wholesale Inflation Dips in August, Largely on Drop in Energy Costs

September 14 2022

“The August CPI is the last important data release before the next FOMC meeting on September 20-21,” BCA Research wrote Wednesday morning. “Stubbornly elevated inflation coupled with exceptionally robust labor market conditions cements the case for another 75bp hike next week."

Bloomberg

Tips on Survival From the Queen Who Excelled at It: Discipline, patience and a certain passivity paid off. Investors might take heed.

September 09 2022

Depending on what corporations say next month, and developments in the economy, it’s still possible to construct a moderately bullish case for earnings. Doug Peta, chief US investment strategist at BCA Research, puts it together in two parts. First, the extent of the pandemic-era boost to consumers’ incomes has led consumption to be very resilient. That in turn implies that revenues can keep growing.

Bloomberg

Wall Street Seeks Clues on ECB Plans for $5 Trillion Bond Pile

September 07 2022

“Continuing with interest-rate hikes while not signaling a move to stop the expansion of the ECB balance sheet is not a credible policy mix,” said Rob Robis, chief global fixed income strategist at BCA Research, who expects an announcement this week. “The ECB Governing Council understands that they need to signal a credible monetary policy response to the euro-area inflation overshoot.”

CNBC

Dow, S&P 500 fall Tuesday, notching three-day losing streak

August 23 2022

Stocks fell Tuesday following its worst day since June as investors braced for a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 154.02 points, or 0.47%, to 32,909.59. The S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 4,128.73, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped slightly 0.002% to 12,381.30. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 declined for a third straight session.

Bloomberg

Savary answers: If you sell bonds, what do you buy?

August 23 2022

BCA Research Chief Strategist Mathieu Savary goes on Bloomberg Markets to explore if the bond market movement seen over the past few days is an opportunity or if there is more still to come.

Yicai - China

Trump struggles to release FBI search video

August 18 2022

Matt Gertken, chief U.S. political strategist at investment consulting firm BCA Research, said in an interview with China Business News that despite Trump's many controversies, about 80% of Republicans currently have a favorable opinion of Trump; Trump has weaknesses and will face other challengers to the Republican nomination, but unless disqualified, he will remain the favorite.

South China Morning Post

Singapore's UOB sees Chinese Stocks Outperforming in 2H

August 18 2022

"A combination of property markets woes, an impending export contraction and the dynamic zero-Covid policy will reduce the multiplier effect of current stimulus measures,” Montreal-based BCA Research strategists including Arthur Budaghyan wrote in a note published on Wednesday. “Hence, a meaningful recovery in economic activity will likely fail to materialize in the coming months.” “The recovery in China will be U- rather than V-shaped, with risks tilted to the downside. Consistently, the risk-reward for Chinese stocks remains poor,” they said."

Finanz und Wirtschaft

Kein Lichtblick in Chinas Wirtschaftsdaten [No Brightspot in China's Economy]

August 16 2022

The economy is recovering only slowly. Demand is weakening. The threat of lockdowns remains a risk factor for global markets.

Pound Sterling Live

Pound to Canadian Dollar Week Ahead Forecast

August 15 2022

“The Canadian dollar did not fully catch up to oil prices on the upside. Now that crude is rolling over, CAD remains vulnerable, unless the dollar continues to stage a meaningful decline. Canadian data has been rather mixed over the last month,” says Chester Ntonifor, chief FX strategist at BCA Research. “The BoC raised rates 100bps in July, the biggest interest rate increase in one meeting among the G10. Unless the labor market continues to soften, the BoC will continue to focus on inflation, which means more rate hikes are forthcoming,” Ntonifor said of the Canadian Dollar outlook last week."

Wall Street Journal

Labor Shortage is Vexing Challenge for U.S. Economy

August 14 2022

Slowing immigration was a factor weighing on the size of the labor force early in the pandemic. It is less so now but isn’t likely to become a source of labor-force growth. After dropping sharply, visa issuance has risen nearly to prepandemic levels, according to BCA Research analysis of State Department data.

Morningstar

Oil Prices Are Down But Energy Companies' Earning Estimates Keep Rising

August 13 2022

As always, there are many moving parts for energy. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has lowered its forecast for oil demand in 2022. Then again, analysts at BCA Research led by the firm's chief commodity and energy strategist, Robert Ryan, predicted that Brent crude oil would average $117 a barrel in 2023 because "oil balances still will remain tilted to deficit conditions." Brent was trading for $97.40 on Aug. 11.

Financial Times

Russia's Energy Squeeze on Europe thaws Icy UK-EU Relations

August 11 2022

"I think the main driving factor now is the Ukraine war and the fallout, and the fact that the EU will be forced by its own strategic needs to diversify away from Russian energy. That will swamp the effects of Brexit,” says Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

Barron's

Inflation Could Be Harder to Tame Than the Fed Anticipates

August 10 2022

For Douglas Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, these numbers suggest that a fed-funds terminal rate above 4% will be necessary to corral inflation. The pace of price rises will slow to 4% of its own accord, regardless of what the Fed does, he predicts in a telephone interview. Even apart from energy and food, other prices have come off the boil, notably those of used cars, a huge driver of inflation during the worst of the pandemic.

Businessworld

Is India Experiencing Genuine Inflation Outbreak?

July 22 2022

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is targeting headline inflation, but the recent rise in India’s inflation does not appear to be broad-based, according to Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Emerging Markets Strategist at BCA Research in this BW Businessworld op-ed. The fundamentals for genuine inflation – wage growth, higher household consumption, food scarcity, among others – are not there. Hiking rates may cause a bear market.

Asia Financial

China Stocks in US Are Back, Trounce Nasdaq 100

July 15 2022

"Some argued the regulatory crackdown on these stocks is over, pushing their prices up in the past couple of months,” says Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Strategist, Emerging Markets Strategy with BCA Research. “But when Beijing imposed penalties on Alibaba and Tencent early this week, it reminded investors about regulatory risks."

Institutional Investor

Has the global economy hit bottom? Savary says no.

June 16 2022

Mathieu Savary, Chief European Investment Strategist at BCA Research, discusses how the global economy hasn't bottomed yet.

Financial Times

The Biggest Mistake in Finance? How to Measure Real Interest Rates

May 04 2022

The Fed wants to tighten financial conditions, and that’s best measured by the real interest rate — the baseline rates that are payable after inflation. The problem: How do you measure those real rates, and are the markets judgments trustworthy?

The Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Joshi says durable goods driving inflation

April 26 2022

Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, talks about inflation and how he believes the drivers for it have peaked, which should mean it begins easing significantly, even if that doesn't show up in the measures for a while.

Blooomberg

Sanctioning Russia energy in Europe could lead to continental recession

April 19 2022

Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the geopolitical risks ahead of the financial global markets. He notes there is still uncertainty to come and that sanctioning Russia energy in Europe could lead to a continental recession.

NPR

BCA’s Budagyhan believes Russian stock market will be driven by domestic investors

March 25 2022

The response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine a month ago was fast and damaging to the country's economy. Sanctions placed on Russia by the United States and its partners forced the ruble's value to crumble and the Central Bank of Russia to close the country's stock market.

Bloomberg

Best period for tech is 6 months after hike says BCA’s Tunkel

March 07 2022

Historically it takes four to six months after the Fed raises interest rates before you see a sustainable rally,” said Irene Tunkel, BCA’s chief U.S. equity strategist. “I don’t think the tech sector will see sustainable outperformance until this summer when there’s a little bit less uncertainty.

Barron

China is Watching the Russian-Ukraine Conflict Closely

March 04 2022

Financial Times

Pressure on currencies and other assets will spread to other emerging markets if war persists

March 04 2022

Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research, said investors were not positioned for further falls in the zloty and recommended shorting it against the US dollar.

Bloomberg

Here's the Buy Case for Stocks on Rising Worries Over Nuclear War

March 04 2022

Kitco News

What’s Really Behind Inflation? Durable Goods Says Joshi

March 02 2022

Dhaval discusses several topics including US inflation, and the role cryptocurrencies should play in investor’s portfolios.

Institutional Investor

Are Interest Rates Bad for Tech Stocks?

February 18 2022

BCA Research is not bullish on the tech sector. There are plenty of reasons why tech’s outperformance may have run its course — the law of large numbers will make it increasingly difficult to sustain historic growth rates, legal and regulatory headwinds are emerging, and a shift from pandemic winners to pandemic losers may already be underway — but rising rates are not one of them.

BCA’s Budaghyan Overweight Brazil

February 10 2022

BCA Research analysts raised their recommendation on Brazilian equities and sovereign debt to "overweight" in a note published this week, based on "rising odds" of Lula winning the presidential election in October.

Russia Ukraine Tensions Will Make Europeans Diversify Nat Gas Resources

February 07 2022

Bob Ryan, BCA Research's Chief Strategist, Commodity & Energy discusses the latest news on crude oil and other geopolitical events impacting the energy markets.

Barrons

$100 per barrel? Not in OPEC’s best interest says Ryan

January 27 2022

“It isn’t in OPEC's best interest to see prices go through $90 [a barrel] this year and move higher,” says Bob Ryan, chief commodity and energy strategist at BCA Research.

Savary expects economic growth to remain above trend for 2022

January 19 2022

Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, weighs earnings optimism and concerns about rising bond yields.

Kitco News

Will the dollar really crash in 2022? FX strategist gives outlook on gold, silver, inflation

December 20 2021

Chester Ntonifor, FX Strategist of BCA Research discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the direction of the U.S. dollar in 2022.

Institutional Investor

Bitcoin's Headed to $120,000 and That's Just the Sideshow

November 23 2021

Cryptocurrencies continue to battle volatility and vocal critics, but BCA Research says they’re here to stay.

Bloomberg

Bloomberg Surveillance (Early Edition)

November 12 2021

Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, explains why China is an immediate risk for the markets.

CNBC

China’s economy is now basically ‘standing on one leg’: Strategist

October 14 2021

Evergrande’s debt crisis poses long-term risks to China despite the current fallout being limited to only the high-yield bond market, says Jing Sima of BCA Research

Institutional Investor

Could Green Energy Fuel a Bull Market in Commodities — and in Oil and Gas?

September 28 2021

The reluctance of base-metal producers to ramp up production could mean higher prices on the road to a cleaner world.

Business Insider

Jing Sima and Matt Gertken Named Top 10 Experts on Investing in China

September 07 2021

Investors in Chinese equities have been caught in complete mayhem over the past few months, as a wave of Chinese regulatory crackdowns has wiped off billions in tech stocks. Insider talked to more than a dozen investors including hedge-fund managers and index providers to compile a list of the top China-focused analysts, strategists, and short-sellers they are turning to for guidance.

Barron's

Currencies, Oil Could Feel the Biggest Impact of the U.S. Pivot from Afghanistan to China and Iran

August 18 2021

After the depressing images of the chaos in Kabul fade, U.S. foreign policy will be able to proceed to theaters of greater strategic importance. “We’re at a critical juncture with Iran,” Matt Gertken said in a recent telephone interview with Barron’s

The Daily Dive

The Fraud Side of Bitcoin - The Daily Dive featuring Peter Berezin

August 17 2021

Watch now as The Daily Dive welcomes Peter Berezin, BCA’s Chief Global Strategist, as he discusses the outlook of meme stocks, bond yields going down, and why he thinks bitcoin is a fraud.

Business Insider

The Delta variant could thwart the recovery that has driven stocks to record highs.

August 05 2021

Though the Delta variant is concerning and US growth may have peaked, there are far more reasons to be bullish on stocks than bearish, wrote Doug Peta, chief US investment strategist at BCA Research, in a recent report

Business Insider

How hedge funds have underestimated risk in China

July 30 2021

China's secular slowdown in their economy combined with their antagonistic relationship with the US is shaking up financial markets, said Matt Gerken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

Kitco News

Already 'bubbly' market at risk of popping if Fed hikes rates says economist - Peter Berezin

June 16 2021

Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the likelihood of the economy slumping back into a recession and a hyperinflationary scenario hitting the U.S.

Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Money Life Interview: Peter Berezin

June 14 2021

Peter Berezin, chief global strategist and director of research at BCA Research, discusses the "Crypto Impossibility Theorem' -- which states that cryptocurrencies will only be viable if they can offer a higher return than stocks, and why he believes that won't happen, and will lead to struggles that distract the market and slow appreciation.

Kitco

Copper, silver and gold should all be in your portfolio - BCA

June 02 2021

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Robert Ryan, chief strategist at BCA Research, said that his firm is bullish on gold in the long-term as the Federal Reserve looks to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policies in the face of rising inflation pressures.

Nasdaq

TradeTalks: Implications of current fiscal policy and the path for inflation

May 26 2021

BCA Research Director of Research and Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin joins Jill Malandrino on Nasdaq #TradeTalks to discuss implications of current fiscal policy and the path for inflation.

Bloomberg

Mainstream Markets Shrug at Volatile $1 Trillion Crypto Rout

May 24 2021

Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research Inc., wrote in a note that crypto market pain could hurt other speculative assets like tech stocks in the short term. However, further out, “diminished investor interest in cryptos will benefit the stock market, as investor attention focuses back on equities,” he said.

Bloomberg

Musk Splits From Cathie Wood’s Ark on Bitcoin Environmental Cost

May 13 2021

“Cryptos are heading for a world of pain,” Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research in Montreal, wrote in a recent report with colleagues. “ESG concerns will force companies to step back from their newfound infatuation with these magic beans.”

The Market Herald

ASX Close: Auction bounce seals win

March 25 2021

“Is this a bubble?” Garry Evans, chief strategist for global asset allocation at BCA Research, pondered to the New York Times. “I would say there are certainly pockets of the market that look bubbly.”

Bloomberg

The Bond Market’s Weird and Scary Breakdown Is Still a Riddle

March 22 2021

Dhaval Joshi, European strategist at BCA Research Inc., suggests this is a major market inefficiency, as oil prices and inflation forecasts should be negatively rather than positively correlated. He shows that moves in the oil price do tend to have an impact on realized inflation over the next decade, but not in the direction we might expect. Higher oil prices mean lower subsequent inflation, and vice versa.

MarketWatch

This is the key question that will determine whether stimulus money overheats the economy

March 19 2021

Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, says whether the new stimulus is considered wealth or income depends on whether the household receiving it has a low or high income to begin with. But looking at past stimulus checks, there weren’t meaningful shifts in either consumption or inflation.

Reuters

TREASURIES-Yields retreat, bills flirt with negative rates

March 19 2021

The pullback in yields was not too surprising, according to Ryan Swift, U.S. bond strategist at BCA Research in Montreal. "Ultimately, what we’re seeing now is a great deal of tension between market prices that embed several rate hikes before the end of 2023 and the Fed’s forecast that doesn’t expect liftoff until 2024," he said, adding that the conflicting rate forecasts will lead to market volatility.

South China Morning Post

China stocks downgraded by BCA Research on ‘non-trivial’ risk of policy overtightening

March 18 2021

China’s stocks have been downgraded on a one-year outlook by analysts at Montreal, Canada-based firm BCA Research, who cited “high risk” policy overtightening and weakening technical indicators as their reasons, as the government pulls back policy support this year. “The downside risks to China’s cyclical growth trajectory are non-trivial”, potentially threatening the economy and corporate profits, analysts led by Jing Sima wrote in a March 17 report to clients. “A tug of war between policy tightening and growth support is likely to persist throughout this year."

CNBC

The arbitrage window between A-shares and H-shares has ‘closed,’ says strategist

March 14 2021

Jing Sima of BCA Research says investors should look at Chinese companies that could benefit from global growth as domestic economic momentum has either peaked or is reaching that point.

S&P Global

China banks to lend more as nation seeks self-reliance in tech, domestic demand

March 11 2021

There may be isolated risks of rising nonperforming loans related to the real estate sector, particularly among the small and medium-sized banks," said Jing Sima, China investment strategist at BCA Research.

The Times

Mined commodities are taking off but the ride will be bumpy

March 10 2021

“Crude oil is up 31 per cent year to date, copper is up 33 per cent, steel is up 29 per cent, benchmark iron ore is up 27 per cent,” Bob Ryan, chief strategist for commodity and energy strategy at BCA Research, the independent investment research group, said. “China is booming, they’ve been emptying out global inventory for copper and demand for steel is through the roof.”

ETF Trends

Can Bitcoin and ESG Co-Exist?

March 02 2021

“Many companies have cozied up to Bitcoin in order to associate themselves with the digital currency’s technological mystique,” BCA Research Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin added. “As ESG funds start to flee Bitcoin, its price will begin a downward spiral. Stay away.”

Capital.com

S&P 500: the long bounce-back continues

February 23 2021

Dhaval Joshi, analyst at independent research firm BCA Research, has written that: “The core tenet is that the stock market goes up because profits go up. This tenet is under threat because, since 2008, the global stock market has nearly doubled while profits have gone nowhere.”

MarketWatch

The rational bubble is turning irrational — and the next few weeks are critical, strategist says

February 19 2021

Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist for BCA Research, has said for some time that low yields meant the rally into stocks and other assets, made sense — a rational bubble, if you will. “Rational, because the nosebleed valuations are justified by a fundamental driver. And not just any fundamental driver, but the most fundamental driver of all – the bond yield,” he writes.

Asia Times Financial

Polar vortex-induced oil spike to fade, supply dynamics return

February 18 2021

“Oil output likely will be hit hard in the short term, particularly in the Permian Basin, where producers, by and large, are unaccustomed to the deep-freeze conditions their colleagues to the north take for granted,” Robert P Ryan of BCA Research said.

Barron's

U.S. Interest Rates Are Rising. Why Emerging Markets Aren’t Worried—Yet

February 12 2021

Emerging markets themselves are in better shape to withstand some centripetal force than in 2013, adds Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research. “Then you had large current account deficits and overvalued currencies across EM,” he says. “The vulnerabilities now are much less.”

MoneyWeek

Will the China-US trade war continue?

February 05 2021

"We’re confident it will go sour at some point”, says Matthew Gertken at BCA Research. The first flashpoint could be last year’s “phase-one”.

MoneyWeek

Will the China-US trade war continue?

February 05 2021

"We’re confident it will go sour at some point”, says Matthew Gertken at BCA Research. The first flashpoint could be last year’s “phase-one”.

CNBC Asia

China stocks could pull back as investors are complacent in their policy expectations, strategist says

February 01 2021

Investors in China’s markets have been “a bit complacent” in the expectations of the policy outlook in the country, argues BCA Research’s Jing Sima

CNBC Asia

The breadth of the market rally and policy environment are key factors that could suggest an upcoming correction for China market, says Jing Sima from BCA Research. She also discusses the areas where she remains long on.

January 29 2021

Asia Financial Times

Markets bruised by long-short battle

January 29 2021

The dizzying gains attained over the past few days by the likes of GME, AMC and NAKD on the back of Reddit-engineered short squeezes have raised hopes of similar gains elsewhere,” said Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Emerging Markets Strategist at BCA Research. “Instead, the message from market sentiment and positioning indicators is that equities are ripe for a correction.

The Wall Street Journal

Renewed Demand for Treasurys Quells Fears of Rising Rates—for Now

January 27 2021

“We’re at this point of potential fragility,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research. Going forward, he said, yields and stocks could make modest adjustments to normalize their relationship, or there could be “a more destructive solution where the yield overshoots and the market at some point panics.”

Reuters

Bond market watching for ongoing Fed reassurance on purchases

January 27 2021

Yield increases prompted by the Fed paring bond purchases could hurt stocks, but “if yields go up because the economy is on fire and inflation expectations are moving up, then that’s OK for stocks,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research in Montreal.

Reuters

Bond market watching for ongoing Fed reassurance on purchases

January 27 2021

Bloomberg

Ponzi-Stage Stocks Are Stable. Just Don't Cough

January 08 2021

Just how can the bond market rein in the stock market, though? BCA Research Inc.’s strategist Dhaval Joshi offers the following model, based on the spread between the forward earnings yield (inverse of the P/E) of global technology stocks and the 10-year Treasury yield.

Reuters

Bitcoin bulls, beware of fractal dimension!

January 05 2021

"What it tries to measure is when the investment horizon of short-term traders and long-term traders pretty much coincide - when they start to have exactly the same views," says Matheiu Savary, global macro strategist at BCA Research.

Financial Times

UK economists’ survey: recovery will be slower than in peer countries

January 03 2021

Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research: Absent further shocks, the UK economy can expect to regain its pre-pandemic size in the second half of 2021.

Financial Times

UK economists’ survey: recovery will be slower than in peer countries

January 03 2021

Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research: Absent further shocks, the UK economy can expect to regain its pre-pandemic size in the second half of 2021.

CNBC

South Korean stocks had their best year in more than a decade in 2020

January 03 2021

Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging market strategist at BCA Research, said the South Korean stock market got a boost from its diverse composition of tech and industrial companies.

Financial Times

UK economists’ survey: recovery will be slower than in peer countries

January 03 2021

Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research: Absent further shocks, the UK economy can expect to regain its pre-pandemic size in the second half of 2021.

CNBC

We don’t think Chinese stocks will do well in 2021

December 23 2020

Chinese stocks will underperform in 2021 as 3 major factors supporting the market will be absent next year, says Jing Sima of BCA Research.

South China Morning Post

Legally ambiguous ‘VIE’ structure means foreign investors don’t technically own overseas-listed Chinese stocks

December 21 2020

The Biden administration is likely to confront China on bilateral investment issues including the VIE structures at some point, even though the market is now hopeful that the new president will bring some initial reprieve to souring US-China relations when he takes office, according to Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

South China Morning Post

Legally ambiguous ‘VIE’ structure means foreign investors don’t technically own overseas-listed Chinese stocks

December 21 2020

South China Morning Post

China’s market-beating liquor stocks fancied by money managers keep others wary of valuation

December 07 2020

The fallout may be short-term headwinds to economic recovery and the stock market's performance, analysts Xu Qingyun and Jing Sima wrote in a December 2 report. "A peak in the country's business cycle will probably be reached by mid-2021," they said.

Yahoo Finance

S&P 500 Q3 earnings beat 'suggests things are improving globally

December 02 2020

Yahoo Finance’s Myles Udland, Julie Hyman, and Brian Sozzi discuss stock market outlook with Doug Peta, BCA Chief U.S. Investment Strategist.

S&P Global

US investment-grade credit spreads return to pre-COVID levels - risk monitor

November 30 2020

For those looking to make money betting on a further tightening of spreads, there are better opportunities out there, according to Ryan Swift, U.S. bond strategist as BCA Research.

Market Watch

This bond-market signal will tell investors when it’s time to sell stocks, says strategist

November 19 2020

Our call of the day from BCA Research’s chief European strategist Dhaval Joshi lays out some clear-cut advice: Sell stocks and head to the sidelines if the U.S. 10-year bond yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.854% rises another 30 basis points.

CNBC

Regulatory crackdowns in Chinese technology sector to favor tech giants

November 18 2020

Jing Sima from BCA Research explains how China’s regulatory crackdown on technology companies will “raise the bar” for new players in the sector.

Financial Times

Firepower boosts equity markets on back of Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough

November 14 2020

“The vaccine announcement supercharged the ‘return to normalcy’ rally that followed the US election,” said Matt Gertken, a strategist at BCA Research. “It will take time to distribute these vaccines but the world can look toward economic recovery next year.”

Barron's

Why the Best Approach to Your Portfolio May Be One That Doesn’t Pick Sides

November 06 2020

In a briefing on Friday, Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, put the probability of Democrats winning both of Georgia’s Senate seats for a 50-50 Senate split at 25%. But he cautioned against investors taking an aggressively risk-on position until there is clarity on multiple fronts, including the types of policies, such as those related to China, that the Trump administration could push through in the months ahead of inauguration.

Asia Times Financial

Asian markets load up on risk but volatility looms

November 03 2020

“Joe Biden leads Donald Trump sizably in national polling, suggesting that the latter is likely to lose the popular vote in today’s election. But the US presidency is decided by the electoral college, not the popular vote, and on this basis, Biden’s lead is considerably smaller,” macro research fund BCA Research said in a note.

The Guardian

Markets plunge in uncertainty about a second term and a second wave

October 31 2020

As Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research, says, consumers who cannot use their nose or mouth in close proximity to others are hardly consumers at all.

Yahoo Finance

BCA Research Launches Equity Analyzer to Quantitatively Score Equities On 30 Influential Factors

October 30 2020

BCA Research, the world's leading provider of independent global macro research, today announced the re-introduction of its Equity Trading Strategy as the BCA Research Equity Analyzer. The cornerstone of the platform is the proprietary BCA Research Equity Score, which guides investors to identify and understand opportunities and risks at the individual stock level.

Barron's

It May Be Time to Dip Into Thailand’s Stock Market. Tread Lightly.

October 23 2020

But King Maha Vajiralongkorn, who has milked royal assets more aggressively since ascending in 2016, has offered no conciliatory gesture. The conflict is too deep-seated for a quick fix, says Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research. “The ruling elite’s fight against the poor people is not going away,” he says. “That’s why the Thai economy will underperform.”

South China Morning Post

China’s stock market approaches 2018 peak on recovery tonic as valuation hurdle evokes 2015 pain

October 19 2020

That may prompt the central bank to raise its policy rate by as much as 50 basis points in 2021, which may not be a bad thing, its China strategist Jing Sima wrote in an October 14 report to clients. Stocks have moved in lockstep with rising interest rates and bond yields, a relationship that has strengthened since the market crash of 2015.

Reuters

Unloved value stocks seen as cautious bet as election nears

October 16 2020

“I think we are going to get a regime shift in markets probably after the election,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, which last month recommended clients “pivot to value” and says value’s discount to growth is “greater than it’s ever been.”

Reuters

Unloved value stocks seen as cautious bet as election nears

October 16 2020

Financial Times

Global stocks rally loses momentum as earnings season begins

October 13 2020

“More fiscal stimulus is needed to protect the economy from the negative effects of a shrinking labour force and cascading bankruptcies,” said Doug Peta, chief US investment strategist at BCA Research.

Financial Times

US energy stocks sink even as oil price steadies

October 12 2020

“The energy sector has entered a consolidation phase, which will see many firms either shrink their balance sheets or disappear,” said Bob Ryan, chief commodity and energy strategist at BCA Research. “The survivors will have to navigate a rapidly changing landscape in which renewables are gaining market share and the long-term viability of fossil fuels is being questioned.”

Yahoo! News

Why Trump’s COVID-19 battle could result in electoral ‘chaos’ or become an ‘ironic plus’

October 03 2020

“As long as he recovers, this is good news for Trump’s election odds. It distracts from his first debate performance and gets him at least some sympathy regarding the pandemic,” said Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, on Friday.

Market Watch

Here’s what President Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis means for stock-market volatility — so far

October 02 2020

Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, outlined a number of ways in which getting coronavirus could be “good news for Trump’s election odds” with the important caveat being that he survives the illness.

Reuters

Dollar outshining gold, beating yen in battle of safe havens

September 30 2020

Chester Ntonifor, foreign exchange strategist at BCA Research, said spikes in equity market volatility have tended to boost the U.S. currency, as does turbulence in foreign exchange markets after long periods of placid trading.

Financial Times

US stocks join global rally fuelled by upbeat signs on world economy

September 28 2020

"Whether new restrictions are announced or not, “it’s the resurgence of the pandemic that’s going to cause people to change their behaviour and the market has cottoned on to that in the last couple of weeks,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research."

CNBC

How the U.S. economic response to the coronavirus pandemic stacks up to the rest of the world

September 28 2020

“It certainly feels like a Wile E. Coyote moment, where he runs off a cliff, pauses midair, only to realize there’s nothing below,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research. “I think investors are underappreciating just how much fiscal policy has tightened over the last six weeks.”

CNBC

How the U.S. economic response to the coronavirus pandemic stacks up to the rest of the world

September 28 2020

South China Morning Post

Who is better for the stock markets of China and Hong Kong, a Democrat or Republican president?

September 26 2020

In addition, Biden’s plans to increase corporate taxes in the US will also be a boost to markets elsewhere. “[T]hey will undercut US corporate earnings relative to global,” said Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

London Mail

Public sector pay rises 4.5% as private sector salaries fall

September 20 2020

Figures due on Friday will highlight the continuing damage to the public finances from the emergency response to the pandemic They will cover the state of the Government’s coffers in August and are expected to show further deterioration, according to Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research.

Market Watch

Why these strategists say at least $500 billion more is needed to fuel consumer spending during the pandemic

September 15 2020

“Even to achieve 0% spending growth over the next 12 months will require another $249 billion from the government, and that outcome would almost certainly disappoint markets,” warned a team led by Ryan Swift, U.S. bond strategist at BCA, in a note Tuesday.

Investment Week

The latest 'They Think It's All Over' moment

September 09 2020

I have written before about how a generation of investors are struggling with what they view as normal. According to Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research: "In the 34 years through 1975-2008, value trebled relative to growth [in total return terms]. Albeit, with the occasional vicious countertrend move, such as the dot com bubble.

Barron's

Trump Fires New Salvos at China. The Tough Talk May Not Rattle Investors.

September 09 2020

The dominant public companies in China, Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), Tencent Holdings (700.Hong Kong), Meituan Dianping (3690.Hong Kong), and JD.Com (JD), are all ultimately consumer-facing businesses driven by domestic demand. That is rising as China surges out of the pandemic and the government pumps stimulus. “Companies like JD and Alibaba are insulated from direct U.S. measures,” says Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research. “They have to worry if animal spirits suffer.”

Financial Times

Beware what comes after the easy money binge

September 07 2020

Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA, argued that, over time, excessive stimulus and easy money policies led either to asset bubbles or a burst of inflation. Both outcomes “bode ill for share prices in the long run”, he said.

CNBC

Global markets begin to rebound from mammoth tech sell-off — what now?

September 04 2020

BCA research strategist Mathieu Savary said in a note Friday that the pattern of value outperforming tech would likely continue throughout the duration of the correction, with European and Japanese equities outperforming due to their lesser reliance on tech.

Yahoo Finance

Tech Puts In Another Day of Heavy Lifting

August 28 2020

"Tech companies that have benefited from the pandemic could face headwinds," writes BCA Research, which sees a definite short-term threat to ...”

Market Watch

Trees don’t grow to the sky: tech stocks can’t outperform forever, BCA Research argues

August 24 2020

“BCA Research tackled that question several times over the summer. Advertisement. “We believe that tech stocks are in a bubble,” wrote Mathieu Savary, ..”

Funds Europe

State Street launches low volatility ETF

August 24 2020

“How to invest in a time of Covid-19 is a question that affects us all. In this webinar, Mathieu Savary, strategist at BCA Research,.”

Barron's

Lumber's Robust Rally Presages Higher Bond Yields

August 21 2020

“The lumber rally this year has been spectacular. We have been positive on this asset since February and ...”

Reuters

Bulls move deeper on most Asian currencies on recovery hopes

August 20 2020

“The U.S. dollar is likely to weaken over the next 12 months as global growth accelerates and the narrowing in real interest rate differentials continues to thwart the greenback,” BCA Research strategists wrote in a note at the end of last week.

S&P Global

Easy gains in corporate bonds 'over' as yield tightening slows – risk monitor

August 19 2020

"The easy part of the liquidity-driven rally in credit is over," Robert Robis, chief fixed income strategist at BCA Research, wrote in a research note. "More gains are to come, but investors will need to be more selective."

Barron's

U.S. Is Tightening the Noose on Huawei. Why the Market Shouldn’t Shrug Off the News.

August 18 2020

Stock traders have grown accustomed to ignoring much worse news over the past few months, observes Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research. “Last year this would have caused a pretty big sell-off,” he says. “Now we’re injecting economies with so much stimulus that we’re not feeling the pain.”

International Financing Review

Foreigners unload US corporate bonds in June: Treasury data

August 18 2020

Together with interest rates near record lows in most developed economies, a weaker dollar has lowered the hedging cost for European investors, according to Robert Robis, chief fixed income strategist at BCA Research.

Bloomberg

What Happens to the Markets If There’s a Vaccine?

August 18 2020

“The failure to produce a vaccine would mean that herd immunity will be the only effective path toward ending the pandemic,” says Peter Berezin, chief global investment strategist at BCA Research Inc. in Montreal. “This would be highly disappointing for risk assets.” In other words, for stocks.

Bloomberg

What Happens to the Markets If There’s a Vaccine?

August 18 2020

Asia Times

Markets eye US stimulus after China data disappointment

August 14 2020

“All eyes are now set on Washington as markets eagerly await fiscal stimulus. This crystal clear constraint is why our Geopolitical Strategy service maintains that a deal will ultimately be reached,” BCA Research economists said in a note, referring to Republicans and Democrats willingness to compromise with an eye to achieving different objectives.

Reuters

Currencies higher on dollar decline, U.S.-China meeting awaited

August 13 2020

“Investors should be prepared for a risk-off episode in the near term in case Congress fails to compromise on a major new fiscal stimulus,” BCA Research strategists wrote in a client note.

Market Watch

Predicting what happens next in stocks will get trickier this fall when markets navigate a roller coaster of big events

August 12 2020

... growth,” Peter Berezin, chief strategist at BCA Research said. “Central banks are usually reacting to yesterday's news and monetary policy comes with a lag.

Barron's

The ‘Reflation Trade’ Could Support Returns in TIPS—for Now

August 12 2020

Strategists at BCA Research argue that TIPS should outperform long-term Treasuries in coming months, as “rising inflation seems likely during the next few months.”

The Wall Street Journal

Another Fed Rate Cut in September?

August 05 2020

The shift into bond funds from equity funds continues. The net new cash flows to bond funds tend to correlate with the bond market's performance .

Reuters

Buy, sell, repeat! No room for 'hold' in whipsawing markets

August 03 2020

And when short-term returns are so attractive, it makes little sense to hold assets for longer. Returns on 10-year Treasuries in the first 2020 quarter almost matched what would mathematically accrue after a decade, BCA Research strategist Dhaval Joshi noted.

Asia Times

PMI, trade data, central bank decisions

August 02 2020

BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategist, Chester Ntonifor, said the gap in growth between the US and the rest of the world is likely to be larger than usual over the next few quarters because the epidemic has hit the US harder than most other developed economies. This will keep the dollar weak. He also said a technical strategy was in play which sells the dollar when it is trading below it's 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Barron's

Europe’s Misery Won’t End Soon

July 31 2020

The weakness in the U.S. dollar has supercharged the rally in gold. However, more than the greenback’s depreciation supports gold prices.

Barron's

Here’s What the Dollar’s Decline Means for Global Bond Investors

July 29 2020

If the dollar’s decline continues as expected, strategists at BCA Research point out in a recent note, that will constitute a significant shift and will have many broad macroeconomic effects on trade, capital flows, and even global stock markets. Those will take some time to play out.

Financial Times

Further steps lower for Italian yields

July 23 2020

Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research argues that unlike sector-dominated equities, currencies “have a much stronger connection with domestic economics and politics”.

The Globe & Mail

Investors were slow to see coronavirus’s global spread. Are they again too complacent about the economic risks?

July 22 2020

“This puts investors in a bit of a quandary,” Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at Montreal-based BCA Research, wrote in a report. “Growth is likely to recover in the latter half of 2020 as COVID-19 testing becomes pervasive and the effects of fiscal and monetary stimulus make their way through the economy.”

Bloomberg

Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia

July 20 2020

Mathieu Savary on Bloomberg

Ausbiz

A Second Coronavirus Wave Is Now Our Base

July 18 2020

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research tells ausbiz why he is watching more closely the second wave of the COVID cases as well as the EM space for opportunity.

Bloomberg

Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show

July 16 2020

Peter Berezin on Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show

July 16 2020

Peter Berezin on Bloomberg

Bloomberg Radio

Remdesivir Needs More Tests Before Going All In: Bach

July 13 2020

Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, on why Trump needs to side with the Dems and go big on the next round of stimulus. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn.

Asia Times

China outperforms on earnings optimism

July 08 2020

“The muted US response to the Hong Kong National Security Law is giving comfort to investors that the Sino-US trade war was last year’s story,” Mathieu Savary, vice-president at macro research firm BCA Research, said.

Market Watch

Here’s what the rest of the year may hold for the stock market

July 07 2020

The firm, led by its chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, acknowledges the “nervous” tenor of trading patterns right now, but adds: “Nevertheless, we would ‘buy the dip’ if global equities were to fall 5% to 10% from current levels. While the pace of reopening will slow, there is little appetite for the sort of extreme lockdown measures that were implemented in March. The U.S. Congress will ultimately extend fiscal support for households and firms. Around the world, both fiscal and monetary policy will remain highly accommodative, which should provide a supportive backdrop for stocks.”

Business Insider

A research house that called the COVID-19 market sell-off as early as February says investors should 'buy the dip' if stocks fall 5-10%

July 07 2020

BCA Research analysts led by Peter Berezin, acknowledged a "nervous" atmosphere in global markets, but said in the firm's third quarter outlook report that they recommend investors "'buy the dip' if global equities were to fall 5% to 10% from current levels."

Market Watch

Here’s what the rest of the year may hold for the stock market

July 07 2020

Business Insider

A research house that called the COVID-19 market sell-off as early as February says investors should 'buy the dip' if stocks fall 5-10%

July 07 2020

Market Watch

Here’s what the rest of the year may hold for the stock market

July 07 2020

AusBiz

Look Out For a Correction During the Summer

July 02 2020

BCA Research’s Mathieu Savary gives us the breakdown ‘phase one’ of the trade deal, and gives us his take on market correction as stimulus dies down.

CNBC

Parts of the market have run too far ahead of reality

June 26 2020

Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist for European investment strategy at BCA Research, discusses equity markets.

Financial Times

A wave of liquidity will continue to wash over emerging markets

June 21 2020

Not everyone wants to ride this wave. Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging market strategist at BCA Research, describes what is happening as a “FOMO-driven mania”. With markets pumped up on trillions of dollars of liquidity, fear of missing out is driving US retail investors to bet their stimulus cheques on companies apparently heading into bankruptcy. Institutional investors, he said, have had little choice but to join in, and their thirst for yield has driven portfolio flows back into emerging markets after they experienced record-breaking outflows in March.

South China Morning Post

Buying frenzy takes China’s stock market close to US$10 trillion

June 18 2020

“We recommend our clients to buy the dip if Chinese stocks fall by 5 to 10 per cent from current levels in the near term, which is likely to happen in our baseline view,” said Jing Sima, China strategist at BCA Research. “If Chinese stock prices consecutively fall by more than 15 per cent, however, a bear market is likely to follow.”

Ausbiz

A Second Coronavirus Wave Is Now Our Base

June 18 2020

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research tells ausbiz why he is watching more closely the second wave of the COVID cases as well as the EM space for opportunity.

Ausbiz

A Second Coronavirus Wave Is Now Our Base

June 18 2020

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research tells ausbiz why he is watching more closely the second wave of the COVID cases as well as the EM space for opportunity.

Yahoo Finance

If Trump doesn't move to console the nation, here's what may happen to his precious stock market

June 15 2020

“So does it [social unrest] justify a correction further what we’ve seen recently? Yeah, possibly this correction could go further,” said Matthew Gerken, a geopolitical strategist at independent research outfit BCA Research. Gerken said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade the odds are high we could see a 10% correction as the market bakes in the impact of social unrest on the already battered economy.

Market Watch

Strategists who predicted the U.S. would ‘see a revolt of some kind by the 2020 election’ says U.S. in ‘danger zone’ and stocks will suffer

June 13 2020

America has lurched from one crisis to the next in 2020, knocking many people, even professional forecasters, off their feet. But not Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist for BCA Research.

Yahoo Finance

Why the markets are ignoring social unrest

June 12 2020

Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi speak with Matt Gertken of BCA Research about why the markets have been able to look past the social unrest in the wake of George Floyd’s death.

CNN Business

Chinese stocks are on an incredible run. But going too high, too fast is risky

June 10 2020

"The decoupling between stock prices and economic fundamentals is not a 'China phenomenon' per se, but a global one," said Jing Sima, a China investment strategist at BCA Research. "In fact, Chinese stocks have not diverged from domestic economic fundamentals as much as their global peers."

Reuters

Prepping portfolios for next market storm? Not just gold and govvies

June 08 2020

“A stronger cross-asset correlation is the worst nightmare for any portfolio manager, and this has been a defining feature of this crisis, prompting the search for alternative assets,” said Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA.

AXIOS

How the Robinhood effect is moving the stock market

June 06 2020

A report from BCA Research published Monday finds Robinhood users are moving into speculative bets at an incredible rate, radically increasing holdings in three groups of stocks — airlines, cruise ships and mortgage REITs.

The Guardian

Jobs in cafes and shops may never bounce back

June 06 2020

In his latest report, Dhaval Joshi, investment strategist at BCA Research, says a simple return to “normal” will be disastrous. Analysis of the US jobs market – which is similar to the UK’s but has better data – shows that the leisure and hospitality sector generates 11% of jobs, but just 4% of output. Retail generates 10% of jobs, but just 5% of output.

ETF Trends

With Emerging Markets Perking up, Consider This ETF

June 05 2020

“While the mania could last longer and go further than fundamentals may suggest, Arthur Budaghyan, BCA Research’s Chief Emerging Markets wrote in a client note Thursday that a weaker than expected global recovery and rising tensions between the U.S. and China pose two big risks that will continue to weigh on emerging markets ‘after this recent mania phase runs out steam,’” reports Reshema Kapadia for Barron’s.

Market Watch

Restaurant bookings have fully recovered in Germany in a sign that activity rebounds quickly as lockdowns ease

June 03 2020

Analysts at BCA Research compiled this chart, showing German bookings have actually fully recovered.

AusBiz

Look Out For a Correction During the Summer

June 02 2020

BCA Research’s Mathieu Savary gives us the breakdown ‘phase one’ of the trade deal, and gives us his take on market correction as stimulus dies down.

CNBC

Some investors are making bets on an election sell-off, fearing a Democratic sweep

June 02 2020

Analysts at BCA Research said the stock market is underestimating how negative a Biden victory would be for investing. “If the Democrats gain control of the Senate alongside a Biden victory, as our Geopolitical Strategy Service projects, financial markets may have to begin discounting a future materially less friendly regulatory and tax policy,” the analysts note.

CNBC

Surfing the endless summer for risk sentiment

June 02 2020

Asia Times

World reacts to China's growing sphere of influence

May 29 2020

“China is taking advantage of global chaos to solidify its sphere of influence – beginning with Hong Kong,” said Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at macro research firm BCA Research.

Financial Times

Recovery prospects outweigh the negatives

May 28 2020

Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research highlights the importance of low government bond yields in determining the performance of equity sectors. Low yields resonate for companies that have strong growth prospects as the value of their future cash flows rise. In contrast, low yields do not help offset a Covid-19 slump in sales for sectors that rely on a fully functioning economy.

Barron's

China’s Leadership Is About to Grow More Reactionary, Strategist Says

May 22 2020

Risk of economic stagnation is why [Chinese] policy makers at the National People’s Congress this weekend will lay so much emphasis on “reform and opening up,” even as they are forced by the pandemic to do the opposite for now and stimulate the economy via debt-financed fixed investment.…

Financial Times

A healthcare solution for the decade

May 14 2020

BCA Research highlight an important missing catalyst for risk appetite: carry trades in emerging market currencies. For now, EM carry trades are still being cut as shown below, and that argues BCA means “liquidity is not making its way to the corner of the global economy where growth is generated”.

Barron's

Trump Still Agitates for Negative Rates. Why That Probably Won’t Happen.

May 12 2020

Strategists at BCA Research agree. “The Fed will not cut rates into negative territory any time soon,” they wrote. “Investors who are able to do so should go short fed funds futures contracts that are priced for negative rates.”

Asia Times

Economic data this week to reveal coronavirus damage

May 04 2020

“An oil price collapse generates a formidable deflationary force, which will further depress China’s industrial pricing power and profit growth in Q2,” Jing Sima, China Strategist at BCA Research, said.

Bloomberg

Trade War Fears Are Returning to a Virus-Lashed Wall Street

May 04 2020

“In the wake of the pandemic and recession, geopolitics is the next shoe to drop,” BCA Research strategists including Matt Gertken wrote in a Friday note. “Now is not the time to assume global stability.”

Kitco News

Trump victory in November is no longer base-case scenario, here’s why

April 28 2020

The pandemic has made it more difficult for current President Donald Trump to be re-elected in November, this according to Matt Gertken, vice president of geopolitical strategy at BCA Research.

Asia Times

Central banks’ strategies, reopening of economies creating hope

April 28 2020

“First, trailing profit growth for the investable China share universe is likely to decelerate further, since service companies struggled in February and March even more than manufacturers and miners,” BCA Research analysts Mathieu Savary and Aneel Samra said.

Asia Times

Asian markets tumble after oil price rout

April 22 2020

“Global oil logistical capacity will be tested in extremis this month, as cargoes laden with oil arrive in ports that have no need for ready supply and few storage options to hold the crude until its needed,” Robert Ryan, Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist at BCA Research, said in an emailed response to Asia Times Financial.

The Globe & Mail

Investors were slow to see coronavirus’s global spread. Are they again too complacent about the economic risks?

April 22 2020

The Globe & Mail

Investors were slow to see coronavirus’s global spread. Are they again too complacent about the economic risks?

April 22 2020

Financial Post

Why the U.S. dollar's record-breaking surge will reverse by the end of this year

April 22 2020

“The U.S. is being the most aggressive with easing and government spending and as a result we expect to see the biggest deterioration in public finances there,” said Mathieu Savary, a strategist at BCA Research.

Market Watch

Here’s the bull case for banks, no matter how ‘grim’ things are

April 21 2020

Those analysts, at BCA Research, think there’s truth — and an actionable investment thesis — in the big U.S. banks’ position. And given the recent carnage in the stock market — one closely-watched banking index BKX, -1.20% has lost nearly 40% in the year to date —suggests that banks are oversold.

Financial Times

Dollar’s long-term prospects turn gloomy, say analysts

April 21 2020

“The US is being the most aggressive with easing and government spending and as a result we expect to see the biggest deterioration in public finances there,” said Mathieu Savary, a strategist at BCA Research.

The Telegraph

Worried consumers could hold back recovery, warns Bank of England

April 20 2020

Mathieu Savary, analyst at BCA Research, warned the recovery in China was “tepid”, pointing to weak retail sales data. “This weakness is not limited to brick-and-mortar stores, online sales remain soft as well. This suggests that the fragile consumption reflects pressures on household income and poor confidence.”

S&P Global

China shows challenges of post-lockdown economic recovery

April 20 2020

However, all may not be as rosy as the data suggests, according to Mathieu Savary, a strategist at BCA Research.

Barron's

Oil Futures Go Negative in Historic Rout

April 20 2020

“Global oil logistical capacity will be tested in extremis this month, as cargoes laden with oil arrive in ports that have no need for ready supply and few storage options to hold the crude until it’s needed,” Bob Ryan, chief commodities and energy strategist, at BCA Research wrote.

Barron's

The Dow Lost 592 Points Because Nobody Wants to Own Barrels of Oil

April 20 2020

“Global oil logistical capacity will be tested in extremis this month, as cargoes laden with oil arrive in ports that have no need for ready supply and few storage options to hold the crude until it’s needed,” Bob Ryan, chief commodities and energy strategist, at BCA Research wrote.

Financial Times

Waiting for the lights to change

April 20 2020

The rapid easing response from the Fed has sharply compressed the relationship between US and German 10-year yields, now around 1.7 percentage points versus 2.80 in November. This remains an elevated spread, but as BCA Research argues, this only converges further should inflation in the US slide from here. To some extent, that is being flagged by the latest dip in market expectations of long-term inflation, as oil prices sink.

Financial Times

Mind the gap between the markets and the real economy

April 17 2020

But even after a recovery next year, the IMF forecasts a $9tn cumulative loss to global gross domestic product during 2020 and 2021, estimating that leading western economies will end up around 5 per cent smaller. Analysts at BCA Research expect muted inflation pressures for the next few years as central banks “maintain very accommodative monetary policies”. The infusion of such liquidity “should prop stocks significantly higher as multiples rise”, according to BCA.

Market Watch

Investors are cashing in from following the Fed this chart shows

April 16 2020

Bond-market strategists at BCA Research say the gap between BBB and BB-rated corporate debt remains “the best indicator to follow to see if the Fed’s extension of its bond purchase program to high yield is working to reduce borrowing costs for lower-rated U.S. companies.”

Bloomberg

BlackRock Leads Investors Worldwide With ‘Follow the Fed’ Mantra

April 15 2020

BCA Research is among firms touting a simple credit strategy off the back of Fed and European Central Bank actions. This week it recommended investors stay overweight U.S. investment-grade debt with maturities of less than five years, which is a limit for the Fed’s buying program. It also reckons Italian debt is a better bet than core European equivalents.

Reuters

Stocks gain on China trade data, easing pandemic worries

April 13 2020

“If we see greater signs that China is vigorously supporting domestic economic activity, then the global industrial cycle will recover with great alacrity in the second half of 2020,” Montreal-based BCA Research wrote in a note on Monday.

IPE

Fixed Income & Credit: High-yield worries grow

April 10 2020

February spreads of 350bps were close to the 10-year low of 318bps, points out Vivek Bommi, senior high-yield portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. The coronavirus has certainly changed market conditions dramatically and the implications could be severe: “There is lots of angst that we are in the final stages of a credit cycle and the huge increase in leverage seen globally will have ramifications on the corporate debt market,” says Rob Robis, chief global fixed-income strategist, at BCA Research.

IPE

Fixed Income & Credit: Potential for adventures

April 09 2020

Brazil has seen a meaningful rise in local currency corporate bond issuance in the recent years and there are small local currency corporate bond markets in India. China is the behemoth that dominates this asset class and outside these countries, the asset class is almost non-existent, points out Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research. The focus therefore has to be on China for the foreseeable future, although it is only a matter of time before other markets develop in size to become potential investment destinations.

The Wall Street Journal

Coronavirus Threatens Europe’s Tourist Season

April 09 2020

Even if the number of coronavirus cases was to continue to edge lower in Spain and Italy and travel was allowed during the summer, their citizens might be reluctant to travel. People are likely to shun confined spaces such as airplanes and crowded places such as airports, so there will be less willingness to fly, Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research, said.

Barron's

The Coronavirus Crisis Will Kill the Private Sector’s Debt Supercycle. What That Means.

April 08 2020

While we don’t know the day or the hour when that may be, Martin Barnes, BCA chief strategist and economic adviser, writes in a client note he is willing to “make the heroic assumption that we are not in the end of days scenario.” Assuming that the crisis passes some time in the next 12 months, the usually dour Scot leans to a relatively more optimistic outlook for stocks.

Asia Times

Bond investors swarm to China, a safe harbor

April 07 2020

“The inflow data in the Bond Connect report shows two trends, there is gradual increase in foreign investors’ Chinese bond holdings, indicating steady foreign investors’ appetite for Chinese bonds,” said Jing Sima, China Investment Strategist at BCA Research.

Financial Times

A dawn of guarded optimism

April 07 2020

BCA Research has studied bear market recoveries since the second world war. From the median and mean profile of these periods, its analysts conclude: “The SPX will not make any fresh all-time highs until early 2022,” adding that: “Our equity market road map for the next few months is a drawn out consolidation phase leaving investors ample time to shift portfolios and put cash to work.”

Market Watch

Spread between U.S. and German bond yields narrows to tightest in six years

April 02 2020

Dhaval Joshi, European strategist at BCA Research, gave a broader perspective. “German bund yields are much closer to that lower limit and therefore have limited scope to fall. Whereas T-bond yields were (and are) more distant from that limit and therefore had (and have) more scope to fall. The result is the huge spread compression that you see,” he said.

City A.M.

Asian stocks fall as coronavirus fears return

April 01 2020

Analysts at investment adviser BCA Research said it was downgrading its call on Chinese stocks from “overweight” to “neutral”. Jing Sima, china strategist at BCA Research, said equities had not fallen enough in China to re-enter the market in uncertain times. “Chinese stocks need to either offer a better price entry point, or a more upside potential in earnings outlook relative to their global peers.”

The Bond Buyer

Analysts see the Fed keeping rates at zero for years

March 30 2020

“The Fed is going to keep rates at zero for a while, certainly until at least to the end of 2020 and perhaps all the way to the end of next year,” said Rob Robis, Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist at BCA Research.

Barron's

Emerging Markets Have Been Battered. The Worst May Be Yet to Come.

March 27 2020

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index exchange-traded fund (ticker: EEM) is down 26% this year, but in a note to clients, Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research, still recommends investors take caution. “It might be too late to sell emerging market stocks, but also too risky to buy them aggressively” he writes.

Bloomberg

Value Stocks Post Best Run This Century After Fire Sale Ends

March 25 2020

“While it is still too soon to call the ultimate trough in equities more broadly, it is encouraging that the indiscriminate fire sale, panic-driven selling appears to be abating,” BCA Research strategists Mathieu Savary and Aneel Samra wrote in a note.

The Bond Buyer

Dramatic muni rally reverses recent coronavirus-driven selloff

March 25 2020

Ryan Swift, US Bond Strategist at BCA Research echoed some of those sentiments. The Fed measures to mitigate the negative impacts of a credit shock to the market has been evident.

Financial Review

Five reasons the US dollar is booming amid chaos

March 23 2020

A close observer of the US dollar's role in global capital markets is BCA Research strategist Mathieu Savary, who is watching the ability of onshore and offshore US dollar markets to fulfil the needs of those wanting greenbacks.

The Telegraph

There will be a coronavirus recession - the only question is how long and how painful

March 18 2020

“Since household balance sheets are healthy and banks are extremely well capitalised, we doubt that the economy will enter a prolonged slump like in 2008,” says Mathieu Savary at BCA Research.

BFM 89.9

Markets will be Better in 12-18 Months

March 17 2020

With markets in free fall due to the perfect storm of Covid 19 and sharp oil price declines, will the US face a recession? Peter Berezin, Chief Global Investment Strategist at BCA Research tells us not to be overly concerned as it should be a technical one. In fact, he says that opportunities exist if one adopts a long term horizon

BFM 89.9

Markets will be Better in 12-18 Months

March 17 2020

BFM 89.9

Markets will be Better in 12-18 Months

March 17 2020

South China Morning Post

China consumers, small firms shy away from borrowing even as Beijing readies more support

March 12 2020

Jing Sima, China strategist at BCA Research, however warned there was a risk that the PBOC could underestimate the impact on small businesses if it did not ease monetary policy sufficiently.

South China Morning Post

China consumers, small firms shy away from borrowing even as Beijing readies more support

March 12 2020

Jing Sima, China strategist at BCA Research, however warned there was a risk that the PBOC could underestimate the impact on small businesses if it did not ease monetary policy sufficiently.

Bloomberg

Dip Buyers Fading Extreme Stock Moves Have History on Their Side

March 10 2020

“Technical indicators are now flashing a high probability of a short-term rebound in U.S. equities,” BCA Research analysts Mathieu Savary and Aneel Samra wrote in a note. “It is too early to say if any upcoming rebound will represent the ultimate end of the selling.”

Politico

The Great Coronavirus Panic of 2020

March 09 2020

Bob Ryan, Chief Commodities & Energy Strategist, at BCA Research on the stunning drop in oil prices: “Russia badly miscalculated, and was too early in making a play for dominance in OPEC 2.0 (OPEC+). Now [Saudi Arabia] is going to show Russia how hardball is really played when one is dealing with the kingpin of the oil market. Russian GDP has twice the sensitivity to Brent prices that KSA does. Russia will be forced to draw down its foreign reserves in short order, as it will feel a price collapse sooner and harder than KSA.”

Barron's

Stock Surge May Reverse as Dow Futures Trade Lower

March 05 2020

Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research, argues financial markets will have fully priced in a downturn when the time horizon of investors that have fully capitulated equals the length of the downturn.

Investment & Pensions Europe

Dollar/sterling: The road ahead for cable

March 02 2020

“Paradoxically, the dollar often benefits when it is the source of geopolitical risk and tensions,” says Mathieu Savary, a strategist at BCA Research. He explains that Chinese economic growth and credit data will be unclear until the spring.

Newsweek

Coronavirus Sparks Talk of Global Recession and ‘Economic Pandemic’ as Stock Markets Dive

February 28 2020

In a note last Friday, Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, warned that markets were "too complacent" about the economic threat posed by the coronavirus. If it develops into a major pandemic, Berezin said it "would rattle the global economy, leading to a recession as deep as the one in 2008/09."

Newsweek

Coronavirus Sparks Talk of Global Recession and ‘Economic Pandemic’ as Stock Markets Dive

February 28 2020

Newsweek

Coronavirus Sparks Talk of Global Recession and ‘Economic Pandemic’ as Stock Markets Dive

February 28 2020

The Wall Street Journal

Fear of Coronavirus, Rather Than Virus Itself, Hits Economies

February 26 2020

Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, an investment advisory, estimated global growth would fall to zero in the current quarter and then rebound, for a full-year hit of about half a percentage point. But he also sketched out a more pessimistic scenario.

The Wall Street Journal

Fear of Coronavirus, Rather Than Virus Itself, Hits Economies

February 26 2020

The Wall Street Journal

Fear of Coronavirus, Rather Than Virus Itself, Hits Economies

February 26 2020

Bloomberg Radio

US Yields May Be Bottoming, Poised to Rise: BCA Research’s Rob Robis (Radio)

February 24 2020

Robert Robis, Chief Strategist, Global Fixed Income at BCA Research, on the bond markets and drop in yields. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.

The Sydney Morning Herald

Will investors feel the Bern? Another US political shock could upend global markets

February 21 2020

There is a growing view within sections of the investment community that November’s US election has the potential to deliver a 180-degree reversal in policy and send shockwaves across complacent markets. "This election is an enormous fountain of uncertainty. It’s going to be extremely close," Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at Montreal-based BCA Research, said in an investor presentation in Sydney this week.

CNN

The Dow and Nasdaq are approaching big milestones. Is it too late to invest?

February 19 2020

"In general, round numbers are noise that don't mean much for investors, even if it sometimes takes a few trading sessions to get past those milestones," said Doug Peta, chief US investment strategist with BCA Research.

Financial Review

Reserve Bank won't dare cut rates again

February 18 2020

"Things will need to get a lot worse before the RBA cuts rates," said Mathieu Savary, strategist at BCA Research, an independent provider of global investment research founded in Montreal. "We are of the view that the RBA is not going to do anything more this year." The Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate three times last year to a record 0.75 per cent. Lower interest rates have already helped to boost the housing market. But the central bank is terrified that further measures to stimulate the economy, such as rate cuts, will inflame longer-term risks, according to BCA.

The Wall Street Journal

The Bond Market Might Finally Be Nearing Its Limit

February 18 2020

Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist at BCA Research, thinks the Japan experience won’t be repeated, because there is a hard floor for yields at around minus 1%. Beyond that, it makes sense to store bank notes in a vault instead, so central banks can’t cut the policy rate much below that without the politically explosive move of abolishing physical cash.

The Wall Street Journal

Will China’s Property Developers Face a Liquidity Squeeze as Home Sales Stall?

February 14 2020

Will China’s Property Developers Face a Liquidity Squeeze as Home Sales Stall?

Financial Times

Balancing complacency and resilience

February 10 2020

The next stage of a long campaign in the US primary season looms with voting in New Hampshire. Polls are showing Bernie Sanders (the 2016 winner of the state) is facing a challenge from Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Here's a link to the FT’s explanation of how the primaries work.

Bloomberg

The Last Hurrah for Credit?

February 07 2020

Robert Robis, chief strategist for global fixed income at BCA Research, thinks this may be the last good year for company debt. The New York-based strategist, whose firm provides macro research, expects the Federal Reserve to get less accommodative as the year goes on, but for now is positive on junk bonds. Robis spoke with Olivia Raimonde on Jan. 28. Comments have been edited and condensed.

City A.M.

FTSE 100 and oil prices gain on reports of coronavirus vaccine 'breakthrough'

February 05 2020

Jing Sima, China strategist at investment researcher BCA Research, said there were some positive signs that the virus was being adequately tackled. “The economic impact on China from the outbreak will be large, but manufacturing activities in the majority of Chinese cities should resume by the end of February,” she said.

City A.M.

FTSE 100 and oil prices gain on reports of coronavirus vaccine 'breakthrough'

February 05 2020

Financial Times

Investors should choose carefully which dip to buy

January 31 2020

Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research argues lower yields should persist for at least the first half of the year, making asset allocation decisions relatively clear. “Ultra-low bond yields justify and underpin the valuation of equities,” he said. He thinks long-term investors should pounce on corrections to increase their exposure to stocks at the expense of bonds.

Barron's

What to Expect When China’s Markets Reopen

January 31 2020

Banks have decreased their overall exposure to commercial property loans to levels below their 2008 and 1989 peaks. It is worth noting that smaller banks have taken an increasingly important role in the commercial property market, as they now finance 65% of all commercial property loans. However, a stronger concentration in smaller banks represents a localized, rather than systemic, risk, as smaller banks tend to have a more concentrated geographic exposure. Conversely, large banks have significantly shrunk their commercial real-estate loan books. The composition of the commercial property loan book has changed drastically since the Great Financial Crisis. Banks have significantly reduced their exposure to more speculative construction and development loans. Risk appetite typically increases in the latter stages of an expansion, yet construction loans remain at relatively depressed levels.

Market Watch

Why low rates are raising questions about the next commercial real estate unwind

January 30 2020

Yet analysts at BCA Research see potential trouble when the next downturn comes for office buildings, shopping centers and industrial properties that were purchased in the past decade at soaring prices… “With the exception of multifamily residential real estate, American real rents have fallen, revealing that low rates have propelled commercial properties’ price appreciation over the past decade,” wrote BCA Research strategists Ryan Swift and Doug Peta, in a client note Wednesday.

CNBC International

We’ve seen the sharpest rise in European yields in 3 years

January 29 2020

Dhaval Joshi, a strategist at BCA Research, said the recent acceleration in European bond yields has been a source of concern.

Daily Mail

Pound soars as booming job figures slash chances of an interest rate cut later this month

January 21 2020

Dhaval Joshi, of consultancy BCA Research, said: 'The Bank says it is watching all incoming data, and these figures would certainly warrant a delay in cutting interest rates. 'It is significant that the MPC meeting takes place the day before Britain is due to leave the EU. 'Of course, not much will change immediately, but I suspect the Bank would prefer not to make any moves less than 24 hours before Brexit. 'It could look almost as if it were passing a comment on Brexit. The optics would not be good.'

Barron's

Beware This Looming Stock Market Killer

January 17 2020

A big jump in bond yields will come only when inflation breaks out, writes Peter Berezin, BCA Research’s chief global strategist. Barring a major surge in productivity, rising wage growth should accelerate unit-labor costs, setting the stage for rising prices, he writes. We’d add that if corporations can’t pass through higher labor costs, historically fat profit margins would shrink. Higher prices would boost bond yields, or employers would absorb higher labor costs to maintain sales and market share. Neither is positive for stocks.

BFM 89.9

2020 – Slowing Tensions, US Political Risk

January 16 2020

Two weeks into the new year, and with a ink still wet on a phase one trade deal, what will be in store for equity markets? To discuss this, we speak to Peter Berezin, Chief Global Investment Strategist at BCA Research, about what are the catalysts and risks to equities that we need to watch out for, as well as his thoughts on emerging markets like ASEAN.

Bloomberg

Market Melt-Up May Have Gone Too Far, Some Measures Indicate

January 14 2020

Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, said on Friday that he advised a neutral view on global equities and high-yield credit for the next quarter, even though he is positive on a 12-month outlook and recommends buying the dip in the event of a retreat of about 5% from current levels. “Elevated bullish sentiment, against the backdrop of ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for global manufacturing and an uneasy truce between the U.S. and Iran, poses a near-term headwind to risk assets,” he said.

Dawn

A crude bull run on crutches

January 13 2020

In an election year, Washington couldn’t have afforded higher prices at gas stations. “President Trump is clearly bound by the election dynamics to ensure the markets are supported and the economy does not suffer an oil shock,” Matt Gertken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research was quoted as saying.

Petroleum Economist

Oil demand to rebound in 2020

January 13 2020

Oil prices in 2020 will recover smartly from late 2019 levels, as demand regains its mojo and supply growth continues to moderate. A weaker US dollar—brought about by globally accommodative monetary policies and a reduction in economic policy uncertainty—also will support prices.

Bloomberg

Byron Wien Likes China Stocks Even If No More Trade Progress

January 09 2020

Within the past month, several gauges of Chinese stocks have broken above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since trade talks collapsed in May, according to BCA Research, which anticipates modest further gains for the Chinese yuan. “More accommodative monetary and fiscal support in 2020, as well as an ongoing truce, provide a sound basis to overweight China’s stocks within a global equity portfolio,” analysts including Qingyun Xu and Jing Sima wrote in a research report dated Thursday.

Reuters

CANADA FX DEBT-Canadian dollar weakens to 8-day low as oil prices slide

January 09 2020

"The weakness in oil prices has been a key contributor. Also, the strength in the U.S. dollar," said Mathieu Savary, strategist at BCA Research.

Asia Times

US-Iran climbdown gives markets cause for pause

January 09 2020

“Iran is not yet likely to court a full-scale American attack by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz,” said Matt Gertken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, a view widely held by traders and analysts.

Financial Times

Why the ‘Boris bounce’ is likely to be shortlived

January 06 2020

Any Boris bounce is likely to be shortlived. The government will have “got Brexit done” on January 31, but only in the narrow legal sense. In the more important economic sense, there is still no clarity on the type of relationship the UK will have with the EU once the standstill transition period ends on December 31.

Politico

Tensions rise but markets remain calm (for now)

January 06 2020

The risk ahead — BCA Research Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken: “Trump … will not be removed from office by a Republican Senate, his impeachment trial threatens to mar his re-election chances. This is a prime motivation to pursue foreign policy objectives to distract the public and seek policy wins”

Market Watch

Here are 3 things to watch as Fed’s balance sheet expands in 2020

January 06 2020

“It is very likely that, in 2020, the Fed will take steps to make banks increasingly indifferent between holding reserves and Treasury securities,” wrote a BCA Research team led by Ryan Swift, in a recent report. Ultimately, much depends on how quickly the Fed gets to a reserve level it likes. Where do current levels stand? Since September, banking reserves held at the central bank have grown by about $260 billion to $1.66 trillion as of Dec. 25, according to Fed data, which is roughly where Deutsche Bank analysts expect the Fed to target reserve balances for much of 2020.

Barron's

Chile Loses Star Status Among Investors After Anti-Government Protests

January 01 2020

"We are witnessing a structural regime shift in Chile,” says Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging markets strategist at BCA Research. “There will have to be income ...

Equities.com

Outlook 2020: Will Bulls Forge Ahead?

December 30 2019

Is Wall Street too sanguine about the staying power of tame inflation, low interest rates and the economic expansion? Peter Berezin, BCA Research chief global investment strategist, thinks so. He sees an inflation threat emerging that could derail the expansion by the end of 2021.

Market Watch

No snowflakes here: U.S. consumers will keep the economy humming through 2020

December 30 2019

Believe it or not, “the trade war is still a risk,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist for BCA Research. “It’s just a cease-fire. We haven’t established anything permanent yet.”

Equities.com

Outlook 2020: Will Bulls Forge Ahead?

December 30 2019

Investor's Business Daily

Stock Market Forecast 2020: Clear Skies From Fed, China Trade, But Election Clouds Loom

December 27 2019

Is Wall Street too sanguine about the staying power of tame inflation, low interest rates and the economic expansion? Peter Berezin, BCA Research chief global investment strategist, thinks so.

Investor's Business Daily

Stock Market Forecast 2020: Clear Skies From Fed, China Trade, But Election Clouds Loom

December 27 2019

Is Wall Street too sanguine about the staying power of tame inflation, low interest rates and the economic expansion? Peter Berezin, BCA Research chief global investment strategist, thinks so.

Bloomberg

This U.S. Stocks Melt-Up Rests on Faith in Low Rates

December 20 2019

BCA Research Inc.’s veteran emerging markets strategist Arthur Budaghyan has been (correctly) bearish ever since 2010, but this week announced that he was recommending going long…However, he is still arguing on fundamental grounds that emerging markets will underperform the U.S. and developed markets

Barron's

The U.S. and China May Actually Have an Interim Trade Deal. Get Ready for a Market Rally.

December 13 2019

Economic realities in both countries set the stage for a truce, according to strategists at BCA Research who say the Chinese economy is on “unsure footing.”

Market Watch

Own stocks, thank the Fed and don’t expect the next U.S. recession to start anytime soon, says BCA Research

December 12 2019

But the economy still likely has at least another 18 to 24 months to run before the next downturn starts, which means stocks likely will hold up in the coming months and years, according to BCA’s Chief U.S. Investment Strategist Doug Peta.

The Wall Street Journal

Small Firms Increasingly Under Pressure to Boost Wages

December 11 2019

On average, over the past 50 years, equity bear markets tended to occur six months before a recession.

CNBC

Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

December 11 2019

... more than ten years, non-US stocks are set to gain the upper hand over their US peers," Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, said in a note.

CNBC

Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

December 10 2019

... more than ten years, non-US stocks are set to gain the upper hand over their US peers," Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, said in a note.

Financial Times

Investment outlooks hinge on deciphering conflicting signals

December 05 2019

Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research highlights that “the two components of profits, sales and profit margins, will start 2020 at elevated levels” for global...

Barron's

How Investors Should Think About the Possible End of the Bull Market?

December 05 2019

A new analysis from BCA Research is somewhat reassuring: “Stocks can still defy elevated multiples.”

Market Watch

No snowflakes here: U.S. consumers will keep the economy humming through 2020

November 30 2019

Believe it or not, “the trade war is still a risk,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist for BCA Research. “It’s just a cease-fire. We haven’t established anything permanent yet.”

Market Watch

Here’s why inflation no longer drives the bond-market

November 14 2019

Robert Robis, chief fixed-income strategist at BCA Research, said the 10-year yield could move into a range between 2.00%-2.25%, but a further move higher ...

Bloomberg

Safest Bond in Latin America Suddenly Looks Lot Less Stable

November 08 2019

“Chilean markets, the economy, social-political system are undergoing regime shift,” said Arthur Budaghyan, the chief emerging-market strategist at BCA Research Inc. in Montreal.

ETF Trends

International Stock ETFs Offer Value That Many Are Ignoring

November 08 2019

“Globally, equities look reasonably attractive,” Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, told the WSJ. “But outside the U.S. they look very attractive.

ETF Trends

International Stock ETFs Offer Value That Many Are Ignoring

November 08 2019

“Globally, equities look reasonably attractive,” Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, told the WSJ. “But outside the U.S. they look very attractive.

The Wall Street Journal

Foreign Money Supports U.S. Stocks’ Rally Back to Record Highs

November 07 2019

Globally, equities look reasonably attractive,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research. “But outside the U.S. they look very attractive.

The Wall Street Journal

Foreign Money Supports U.S. Stocks’ Rally Back to Record Highs

November 07 2019

Globally, equities look reasonably attractive,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research. “But outside the U.S. they look very attractive.

Barron's

A Bond Strategy for the Next Decade

November 06 2019

A shorter-duration fixed-income portfolio would carry less risk from an uptick in yields. And that's what BCA Research is advising clients to hold, based on what it...

The Wall Street Journal

U.S. Petroleum Trade Is in Surplus for the First Time in Decades

November 06 2019

U.S. Petroleum Trade Is in Surplus for the First Time in Decades

Market Watch

Semiconductor stocks are in bubble territory, these analysts say

November 06 2019

That's the thesis from BCA Research, and it's a view they have strong feelings about. “We warn that the S&P semi equipment all-time highs look more like a ...

BFM: The Business Station

Responding to Climate Risk

November 05 2019

In the wake of a global climate change movement that has been gaining momentum, the question remains of whether corporations around the world are ready to follow suit. As ESG investing becomes more in vogue, and awareness of the importance of sustainability spreads, we speak to Roukaya Ibrahim, strategist with BCA Research, about how climate change may impact investing trends.

The Wall Street Journal

Latest Curve Inversion Has Been Shorter and Shallower Than Previous Ones

October 30 2019

S&P 500 profit margins are under pressure.

The Wall Street Journal

Americans Increasingly View Trade as an Opportunity for Economic Growth

October 28 2019

Gold and the dollar both climbed this year, which is quite unusual.

Bloomberg

The Pound Just Loves a Deal, Any Deal

October 28 2019

The following chart from BCA Research Inc. shows the spread in real rates between the U.S. and the U.K., which the pound-dollar exchange rate has tracked ...

The Wall Street Journal

U.S. Manufacturing Is Stabilizing, but Concerns over Business Investment Linger

October 23 2019

India's fuel demand has been deteriorating.

Financial Times

Bust a deal and face the Wheel

October 21 2019

...can rally from here is highlighted by Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research via comparing dual-listed companies (Carnival and BHP are the examples and are quoted in London as well as New York and Sydney...

The Market

Owning bonds will be very painful

October 17 2019

Since joining BCA Research in 2010, he has served as Managing Editor of The Bank Credit Analyst as well as helping to develop and launch BCA Research's Equity Trading Strategy. Peter focuses on analyzing global economic and financial market trends.

The Market

Owning bonds will be very painful

October 17 2019

Financial Times

Allure of US stocks reflects great expectations

October 14 2019

Anastasios Avgeriou at BCA Research notes that this measure “peaked in advance of SPX earnings in the previous three cycles”. That now appears to be the ...

The Wall Street Journal

CEO Confidence Lowest in Years

October 08 2019

Chinese energy stocks appear cheap relative to global energy stocks and global oil production.

CNBC

The hard data says the US economy is just fine

October 07 2019

disappointing expectations, hard data have been a source of positive surprises,” said Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, in a note.

CNBC

Dow and S&P 500 will try to snap a 3-week slide as US-China trade talks kick off in the week ahead

October 07 2019

But Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, warned signs of progress are crucial for the market moving forward.

The Wall Street Journal

Wages for Non-Supervisory Workers Outpace the Overall U.S. Pay Gains

October 07 2019

There is a large gap between the degree of monetary accommodation and the growth in credit and money supply. The passthrough of China's reflationary efforts has been slower this time around.

CNBC

Dow rises nearly 100 points to end tumultuous third quarter

October 01 2019

... has caused stocks to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of news headlines,” Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, said in a note.

CNBC

Dow rises nearly 100 points to end tumultuous third quarter

October 01 2019

... has caused stocks to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of news headlines,” Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, said in a note.

TD Ameritrade Network

Positive U.S. Data Pushes Markets Higher

September 20 2019

BCA Research's Chief U.S. Investment Strategist, Doug Peta, CFA, discusses his views with Nicole Petallides on TD Ameritrade Network.

Bloomberg Radio

Robert Ryan on the Volatile Oil Market (Radio)

September 20 2019

Robert Ryan, Chief Strategist, Commodity & Energy Strategy for BCA Research, discusses the volatile oil market, with Bloomberg’s Paul Sweeney and Lisa Ambramowicz

Reuters

Fed cuts rates again, gives mixed signals for next move

September 18 2019

Doug Peta, U.S. Investment Strategist at BCA Research. “What I thought was telling is that the 'dot plot' indicates that we have 10 ...

MarketWatch

Why some analysts believe oil hitting $100 a barrel soon is unlikely

September 18 2019

... U.S. chooses retaliatory strikes against Iran and its proxies in the region,” said Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, in emailed commentary.

CNBC

Dow snaps 8-day winning streak on fears spiking oil will slow the global economy

September 16 2019

The world is dependent on strategic reserves right now and you will see SPR draws,” said Bob Ryan, chief commodities and energy strategist at BCA Research, ...

CNN Business

The IPO market is heating up but investors are shunning unprofitable companies

September 13 2019

That skepticism could be a good sign, says Doug Peta, chief US investment strategist at BCA Research. It shows that investors are not in the midst of a mania ...

Financial Times

Saudi Arabia signals oil production cuts will stay

September 10 2019

Bob Ryan, chief strategist at BCA Research, said he expected the kingdom wanted oil prices at least “in the high $70s”. Lenders are being appointed to oversee ...

CNBC

Oil gets boost as new Saudi minister commits to output cuts

September 09 2019

... the direction of getting inventories down and getting the market into shape for the (Aramco) IPO,” said Robert Ryan, Chief Energy Strategist at BCA Research.

CNBC

Oil gets boost as new Saudi minister commits to output cuts

September 09 2019

... the direction of getting inventories down and getting the market into shape for the (Aramco) IPO,” said Robert Ryan, Chief Energy Strategist at BCA Research.

Financial Times

Markets fret that recession fears will bring recession itself

September 06 2019

Peter Berezin of BCA Research concedes that “a sudden drop in confidence can generate a self-fulfilling cycle where rising pessimism leads to less ...

Financial Times

Markets fret that recession fears will bring recession itself

September 06 2019

Peter Berezin of BCA Research concedes that “a sudden drop in confidence can generate a self-fulfilling cycle where rising pessimism leads to less ...

Market Watch

Yield-curve inversion? Junk bonds still see smooth sailing for economy

September 04 2019

... trade uncertainty could indicate expectations for corporate defaults to remain limited in the future, Robert Robis, chief fixed-income strategist at BCA Research, ...

Politico

New tariffs hit

September 03 2019

BCA Research's Arthur Budaghyan in the FT: “While China's excessive debt isn't news, investors must wake up to the reality of 'helicopter money' — enormous ...

Bloomberg

Stocks Fall Ahead of Fed Decision; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap

August 31 2019

“Trade is the big question mark,” Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. “If the tensions were to worsen, if trade were to slow even more, I’d think that that sharp manufacturing slowdown could easily become a manufacturing recession and if it were to spread to the services part of the global economy then it could easily induce a global recession.”

Financial Times

China’s ‘helicopter money’ is blowing up a bubble

August 30 2019

The escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China has raised the likelihood of greater stimulus by Beijing to prop up the economy. While China’s excessive debt isn’t news, investors must wake up to the reality of “helicopter money” — enormous money creation by Chinese banks “out of thin air”.

BNN Bloomberg

U.S and China ratchet up trade war

August 29 2019

Heightened trade tensions between U.S. and China have triggered massive market volatility and while U.S. President Trump expressed confidence that the two sides can reach a deal, investors continue to be worried. Matt Gertken, vice president and geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, looks at the mixed messages on the trade war and what it could mean for investors.

Financial Times

The great global bond rally has turned investors into traders

August 26 2019

But from here, as Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research notes, the picture is not encouraging. ''At ultra-low bond yields, the risk of owning bonds converges with the risk ...

BFM - The Business Station

Deal or No Deal?

August 22 2019

The latest on the Brexit front comes from Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, particularly in terms of whether the UK will suffer a No-Deal exit and if so, what the repercussions will be, whether from a trade or immigration standpoint. He also discussed the EU’s economic prospects and how important Germany is to the bloc

Ameritrade Network

Buy The Dip Or Sell the Rally? Doug Peta Weighs In

August 20 2019

Buy The Dip Or Sell the Rally? Doug Peta Weighs In

Market Watch

U.S. Treasury yields fall sharply, 2-year/10-year yield curve inverts, triggering recession indicator

August 14 2019

“At the moment, investors think bonds are the safest way to protect their portfolio. And some think there’s another shoe to drop and a bigger correction in equities must be waiting around the corner,” Robert Robis, chief fixed income strategist at BCA Research, told MarketWatch

Financial Times

Oil slips below $59 amid economic worries

August 14 2019

Robert Ryan, chief commodity and energy strategist at BCA Research, said that “markets need to see concrete results come through the September trade talks” ...

Barron's

How the Trade War Could Become a Real War

August 13 2019

There is a new, troubling question on Wall Street: Just how far could the conflict between the U.S. and China escalate? BCA Research thinks it could stretch ...

Market Watch

Predicting what happens next in stocks will get trickier this fall when markets navigate a roller coaster of big events

August 12 2019

... growth,” Peter Berezin, chief strategist at BCA Research said. “Central banks are usually reacting to yesterday's news and monetary policy comes with a lag.

Bloomberg

This Might Be the Bond Market’s Dot-Com Moment

August 09 2019

Robert Robis, chief fixed income strategist for BCA Research in New York, draws a parallel with 2016, when longer Treasury yields posted their ...

Bloomberg

Chances High For China Saber-Rattling In Nearby Seas

August 05 2019

Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, discusses the conflict between the US and China. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.

The Wall Street Journal

Small Business Hiring Continues to Slow

July 31 2019

Historically, gold has performed well in downturns.

Market Watch

These funds could prove a toxic mix for investors looking to withdraw money at once

July 30 2019

BCA Research estimated that open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds held around 16% of the corporate bond market in 2019, from 3% in 1990.

Market Watch

Home builder confidence, up 1 point in July, still lags 2018

July 16 2019

"History suggests that the recent decline in mortgage rates will spur a rebound in home sales and construction later this year,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist for BCA Research

Market Watch

Home builder confidence, up 1 point in July, still lags 2018

July 16 2019

“History suggests that the recent decline in mortgage rates will spur a rebound in home sales and construction later this year,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist for BCA Research

Barron's

The Bad News About China’s Economy Is Old News

July 15 2019

Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA, points out that Chinese policies have turned from restrictive to stimulative. Given the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward likely rate cuts later this month, easy policies on both sides of the Pacific should extend the U.S. expansion and bull market, he says.

BNN Bloomberg

Money Talk - Trump-Xi meeting raises hope for trade war truce

June 20 2019

Investors are hoping a meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi at the upcoming G20 meeting in Japan could pave the way for a truce when it comes to the trade war between the countries. Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research looks at what is at stake and what he will be watching in the trade talks.

The Wall Street Journal

The Daily Shot: New U.S. Tariffs Will Knock China’s Growth Well Below Beijing’s Target

June 17 2019

Analysts continue to boost their estimates for US crude oil production.

CNBC

Stocks rise slightly as investors brace for this week’s Fed meeting

June 17 2019

... will point in the direction of a cut at the next FOMC conclave at the end of July,” said Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, in a note.

The Wall Street Journal

The Daily Shot: Corporate CEOs Are Increasingly Gloomy on the Economy

June 14 2019

However, the recent strength of the US economy should (in theory) provide support for consumer inflation.

Barron's

Don’t Count on the Fed Cutting Interest Rates While the Economy Looks This Good

June 12 2019

... maturities, according to a research note from Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist of BCA Research. The next move will depend on the Fed.

The Wall Street Journal

The Daily Shot: U.S. Farmers’ Sentiment Slumps

June 10 2019

The NY Fed's yield-curve model is putting the probability of a recession in 12 months at 30%.

Petroleum Economist

Oil price puzzle as sanctions choke Iran exports

June 04 2019

The impact of the Iran sanctions on a stand-alone basis can easily be handled given Opec's current spare capacity, says Robert Ryan at analyst BCA Research.

The Wall Street Journal

The Daily Shot: Mexico – a New Front in U.S. Trade War

May 31 2019

Credit will need to expand much faster to offset the impact of US tariffs

El Mercurio

BCA's investment bet in the face of global turbulence

May 28 2019

An intensification of the trade war will cause the yields of the bonds of the highest rated governments to fall a bit more in the short term

Bӧrse Online

"Japanification": What's hidden behind it and What investors should know

May 27 2019

According to BCA Research, the Fed's minutes show the will of those responsible to avoid a Japanese scenario for the US at all costs.

Bloomberg

Jerome Powell Deserves a Little Less Criticism

April 30 2019

As BCA Research points out, traders are wholly lined up behind the dollar. They are bullish about the greenback, and they have deployed money in speculative ...

The Wall Street Journal

April 26 2019

How do different currencies respond to risk-off periods?

The Wall Street Journal

Midwest Construction Activity Hammered by Flooding

April 23 2019

China's structural advantages have dissipated.

The Wall Street Journal

The Housing Market Weakness Persists

April 23 2019

Economists expect a further rebound in credit growth.

CNBC

Trump's crackdown on Iran leaves the oil market vulnerable to price spikes

April 23 2019

This could nudge the oil market dangerously close to a negative supply shock," Montreal-based macro research firm BCA Research said Monday.

BNN Bloomberg

MoneyTalk: Trade tensions weigh on markets

April 18 2019

Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at, BCA Research looks at how Trump’s trade war is weighing on global markets.

Reuters

Indonesia's rupiah, bonds jump; stocks seen following as Jokowi set for re-election

April 18 2019

"The margin appears robust enough to prevent any legal challenges from Prabowo to become a long running problem,” said Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research in Montreal.

The Wall Street Journal

The U.S. Fiscal Policy Has Become Pro-Cyclical

April 10 2019

This chart shows the US fiscal policy turning pro-cyclical. What happens to the federal budget when the next recession hits? No worries - there is always MMT to make Americans feel better.

The Wall Street Journal

Labor’s Share of Income Is Well Below Historical Average

April 10 2019

Other indicators also predict higher core CPI inflation.

The Wall Street Journal

Americans Are Working Fewer Hours per Week

April 08 2019

The consolidation in China's steel sector has been impressive.

The Wall Street Journal

Stock Investors Are Betting on the Housing Market Rebound

April 05 2019

We have yet to see improvements in China's hard data reports.

ETF Trends

Strong Manufacturing Data Eases Global Economic Slowdown Fears

April 02 2019

... trouble in the economy and financial markets, but we do not think trouble is imminent,” Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, ...

CNBC

Dow rises 200 to start off the quarter on strong US and China data, trade progress

April 01 2019

... trouble in the economy and financial markets, but we do not think trouble is imminent," Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, ...

The Wall Street Journal

China’s Factory Rebound Boosts Global Stocks

April 01 2019

Leading indicators tell us that growth will rebound, but investors are not convinced.

The Wall Street Journal

Pending Home Sales Are Running Below 2012 Levels

March 29 2019

Separately, this scatterplot illustrates the relationship between wage growth (part of the Employment Cost Index) and the prime-age employment-to-population ratio. If the labor market continues to tighten, faster pay increases should follow (in theory).

The Wall Street Journal

Google Search Data Points to Improving Industrial Activity

March 26 2019

The correlation between crude oil and petrocurrencies has broken down.

The Wall Street Journal

Global Recession Fears are Overblown

March 25 2019

Many analysts continue to forecast firmer oil prices over the next couple of years.

The Wall Street Journal

Entry-Level Home Ownership Offers no Tax Advantages over Rent

March 20 2019

While the Eurozone's GDP growth has been underperforming, the GDP per head (working-age population) has kept pace with the US.

The Wall Street Journal

OTC and Prescription Drug Inflation Is Now the Lowest on Record

March 13 2019

However, fundamentals continue to favor the US stock market.

The Wall Street Journal

U.S. Working-Age Population Growth Would Collapse Without Immigration

March 12 2019

The gold-to-bond ratio shows downside risks to the US dollar.

The Wall Street Journal

Fed's Dovish Shift Buoys Markets in 2019's First Weeks

January 15 2019

Managing editor at BCA Research, believes that a pause in monetary tightening by the Fed, combined with global growth stabilizing over the next six months, will help the performance of stocks and other assets that were hurt in last year’s selloff.