Matt Gertken, PhD

The David Lin Report

How Russia-China Alliance Will Challenge U.S. Empire

July 10 2023

Matt Gertken, Chief Strategist of Geopolitical Strategy and U.S. Political Strategy of BCA Research, discusses the deteriorating power of Russia, and China's economic and political instabilities.

Yicai - China

Trump struggles to release FBI search video

August 18 2022

Matt Gertken, chief U.S. political strategist at investment consulting firm BCA Research, said in an interview with China Business News that despite Trump's many controversies, about 80% of Republicans currently have a favorable opinion of Trump; Trump has weaknesses and will face other challengers to the Republican nomination, but unless disqualified, he will remain the favorite.

Financial Times

Russia's Energy Squeeze on Europe thaws Icy UK-EU Relations

August 11 2022

"I think the main driving factor now is the Ukraine war and the fallout, and the fact that the EU will be forced by its own strategic needs to diversify away from Russian energy. That will swamp the effects of Brexit,” says Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

Blooomberg

Sanctioning Russia energy in Europe could lead to continental recession

April 19 2022

Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the geopolitical risks ahead of the financial global markets. He notes there is still uncertainty to come and that sanctioning Russia energy in Europe could lead to a continental recession.

Business Insider

Jing Sima and Matt Gertken Named Top 10 Experts on Investing in China

September 07 2021

Investors in Chinese equities have been caught in complete mayhem over the past few months, as a wave of Chinese regulatory crackdowns has wiped off billions in tech stocks. Insider talked to more than a dozen investors including hedge-fund managers and index providers to compile a list of the top China-focused analysts, strategists, and short-sellers they are turning to for guidance.

Barron's

Currencies, Oil Could Feel the Biggest Impact of the U.S. Pivot from Afghanistan to China and Iran

August 18 2021

After the depressing images of the chaos in Kabul fade, U.S. foreign policy will be able to proceed to theaters of greater strategic importance. “We’re at a critical juncture with Iran,” Matt Gertken said in a recent telephone interview with Barron’s

Business Insider

How hedge funds have underestimated risk in China

July 30 2021

China's secular slowdown in their economy combined with their antagonistic relationship with the US is shaking up financial markets, said Matt Gerken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

MoneyWeek

Will the China-US trade war continue?

February 05 2021

"We’re confident it will go sour at some point”, says Matthew Gertken at BCA Research. The first flashpoint could be last year’s “phase-one”.

MoneyWeek

Will the China-US trade war continue?

February 05 2021

"We’re confident it will go sour at some point”, says Matthew Gertken at BCA Research. The first flashpoint could be last year’s “phase-one”.

South China Morning Post

Legally ambiguous ‘VIE’ structure means foreign investors don’t technically own overseas-listed Chinese stocks

December 21 2020

The Biden administration is likely to confront China on bilateral investment issues including the VIE structures at some point, even though the market is now hopeful that the new president will bring some initial reprieve to souring US-China relations when he takes office, according to Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

South China Morning Post

Legally ambiguous ‘VIE’ structure means foreign investors don’t technically own overseas-listed Chinese stocks

December 21 2020

The Biden administration is likely to confront China on bilateral investment issues including the VIE structures at some point, even though the market is now hopeful that the new president will bring some initial reprieve to souring US-China relations when he takes office, according to Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

Market Watch

Here’s what President Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis means for stock-market volatility — so far

October 02 2020

Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, outlined a number of ways in which getting coronavirus could be “good news for Trump’s election odds” with the important caveat being that he survives the illness.

South China Morning Post

Who is better for the stock markets of China and Hong Kong, a Democrat or Republican president?

September 26 2020

In addition, Biden’s plans to increase corporate taxes in the US will also be a boost to markets elsewhere. “[T]hey will undercut US corporate earnings relative to global,” said Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

Barron's

Trump Fires New Salvos at China. The Tough Talk May Not Rattle Investors.

September 09 2020

The dominant public companies in China, Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), Tencent Holdings (700.Hong Kong), Meituan Dianping (3690.Hong Kong), and JD.Com (JD), are all ultimately consumer-facing businesses driven by domestic demand. That is rising as China surges out of the pandemic and the government pumps stimulus. “Companies like JD and Alibaba are insulated from direct U.S. measures,” says Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research. “They have to worry if animal spirits suffer.”

Barron's

U.S. Is Tightening the Noose on Huawei. Why the Market Shouldn’t Shrug Off the News.

August 18 2020

Stock traders have grown accustomed to ignoring much worse news over the past few months, observes Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research. “Last year this would have caused a pretty big sell-off,” he says. “Now we’re injecting economies with so much stimulus that we’re not feeling the pain.”

Asia Times

Markets eye US stimulus after China data disappointment

August 14 2020

“All eyes are now set on Washington as markets eagerly await fiscal stimulus. This crystal clear constraint is why our Geopolitical Strategy service maintains that a deal will ultimately be reached,” BCA Research economists said in a note, referring to Republicans and Democrats willingness to compromise with an eye to achieving different objectives.

Bloomberg Radio

Remdesivir Needs More Tests Before Going All In: Bach

July 13 2020

Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, on why Trump needs to side with the Dems and go big on the next round of stimulus. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn.

Yahoo Finance

If Trump doesn't move to console the nation, here's what may happen to his precious stock market

June 15 2020

“So does it [social unrest] justify a correction further what we’ve seen recently? Yeah, possibly this correction could go further,” said Matthew Gerken, a geopolitical strategist at independent research outfit BCA Research. Gerken said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade the odds are high we could see a 10% correction as the market bakes in the impact of social unrest on the already battered economy.

Market Watch

Strategists who predicted the U.S. would ‘see a revolt of some kind by the 2020 election’ says U.S. in ‘danger zone’ and stocks will suffer

June 13 2020

America has lurched from one crisis to the next in 2020, knocking many people, even professional forecasters, off their feet. But not Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist for BCA Research.

Yahoo Finance

Why the markets are ignoring social unrest

June 12 2020

Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi speak with Matt Gertken of BCA Research about why the markets have been able to look past the social unrest in the wake of George Floyd’s death.

Kitco News

Trump victory in November is no longer base-case scenario, here’s why

April 28 2020

The pandemic has made it more difficult for current President Donald Trump to be re-elected in November, this according to Matt Gertken, vice president of geopolitical strategy at BCA Research.

The Sydney Morning Herald

Will investors feel the Bern? Another US political shock could upend global markets

February 21 2020

There is a growing view within sections of the investment community that November’s US election has the potential to deliver a 180-degree reversal in policy and send shockwaves across complacent markets. "This election is an enormous fountain of uncertainty. It’s going to be extremely close," Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at Montreal-based BCA Research, said in an investor presentation in Sydney this week.

Dawn

A crude bull run on crutches

January 13 2020

In an election year, Washington couldn’t have afforded higher prices at gas stations. “President Trump is clearly bound by the election dynamics to ensure the markets are supported and the economy does not suffer an oil shock,” Matt Gertken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research was quoted as saying.

Asia Times

US-Iran climbdown gives markets cause for pause

January 09 2020

“Iran is not yet likely to court a full-scale American attack by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz,” said Matt Gertken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, a view widely held by traders and analysts.

Politico

Tensions rise but markets remain calm (for now)

January 06 2020

The risk ahead — BCA Research Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken: “Trump … will not be removed from office by a Republican Senate, his impeachment trial threatens to mar his re-election chances. This is a prime motivation to pursue foreign policy objectives to distract the public and seek policy wins”

MarketWatch

Why some analysts believe oil hitting $100 a barrel soon is unlikely

September 18 2019

... U.S. chooses retaliatory strikes against Iran and its proxies in the region,” said Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, in emailed commentary.

BNN Bloomberg

U.S and China ratchet up trade war

August 29 2019

Heightened trade tensions between U.S. and China have triggered massive market volatility and while U.S. President Trump expressed confidence that the two sides can reach a deal, investors continue to be worried. Matt Gertken, vice president and geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, looks at the mixed messages on the trade war and what it could mean for investors.

BFM - The Business Station

Deal or No Deal?

August 22 2019

The latest on the Brexit front comes from Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, particularly in terms of whether the UK will suffer a No-Deal exit and if so, what the repercussions will be, whether from a trade or immigration standpoint. He also discussed the EU’s economic prospects and how important Germany is to the bloc

Barron's

How the Trade War Could Become a Real War

August 13 2019

There is a new, troubling question on Wall Street: Just how far could the conflict between the U.S. and China escalate? BCA Research thinks it could stretch ...

Bloomberg

Chances High For China Saber-Rattling In Nearby Seas

August 05 2019

Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, discusses the conflict between the US and China. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.

BNN Bloomberg

Money Talk - Trump-Xi meeting raises hope for trade war truce

June 20 2019

Investors are hoping a meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi at the upcoming G20 meeting in Japan could pave the way for a truce when it comes to the trade war between the countries. Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research looks at what is at stake and what he will be watching in the trade talks.

BNN Bloomberg

MoneyTalk: Trade tensions weigh on markets

April 18 2019

Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at, BCA Research looks at how Trump’s trade war is weighing on global markets.

Reuters

Indonesia's rupiah, bonds jump; stocks seen following as Jokowi set for re-election

April 18 2019

"The margin appears robust enough to prevent any legal challenges from Prabowo to become a long running problem,” said Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist at BCA Research in Montreal.