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United States

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Biding Our Time

We marked the first X on our Equity Downgrade Checklist and the latest JOLTS, Employment Situation and SLOOS releases brought us closer to ticking some others. We remain tactically neutral on equities but expect that we will underweight them as excess savings are further depleted, leading labor market indicators continue to soften and consumer credit performance continues to fray.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Do Interest Rates Influence The Performance Of Value Vs Growth?
The idea that rising interest rates benefit value at the expense of growth has become consensus amongst market participants. The rationale is simple: Most of the cashflow that shareholders will receive from growth stocks are farther into the future than…
Daily Insights
US Jobless Claims Surprise To The Upside
US initial jobless claims increased from 209 thousand last week to 231 thousand, surpassing expectations of 212 thousand. Moreover, continuing claims also surprised to the upside, increasing from 1.768 million to 1.785 million. Nearly half of the rise in…
Daily Insights
A Jobs Recession Without An Economic Recession?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, it is possible that there will be a jobs recession without an economic recession in the US, as happened in 2001. The Fed is “trying to cool demand and work with what’s happening on the supply side”. So how…
Daily Insights
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Four Contentious Claims

In this week’s report, we defend four out-of-consensus claims. Claim #1: Underlying inflation in the US is not reaccelerating. Claim #2: The US labor market is set to weaken abruptly. Claim #3: The S&P 500 will drop to 3700 in 2025. Claim #4: Japan is not in danger of a currency crisis.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Mexico: Buy On Election Dips

Mexico’s election and the US election pose short-term and potentially medium-term risks to Mexican financial assets. But unless the ruling party wins a double supermajority, we remain structurally overweight Mexico relative to global stocks excluding the United States.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
Is Biden An Elite Oil Trader?
For obvious reasons, making money should not be the objective of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). It serves to provide the energy needs of the American people in case of a crisis. Some have even criticized the Biden administration that its sale of SPR…
Daily Insights
Is Health Care Set To Outperform?
Health care stocks have underperformed the US broad market by over 20% since the beginning of 2023. Indeed, vaccination campaigns during the pandemic years had initially boosted health care companies’ earnings. However, this tailwind eventually faded.…
Daily Insights
Watch The Stock-To-Bond Correlation
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, investors should look to the stock-to-bond ratio to time the breakout in yields. The strong positive correlation between stock and bond returns has been a consistent feature of the inflationary…
Daily Insights
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Memories Of 2001

Why the US could get a jobs recession without a GDP recession, as happened in 2001, and what it means for stocks and bonds. Plus, an update on the Joshi rule.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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