Highlights

  • The deceleration in global growth that began in 2018 is entering a transition phase.
  • The bottoming out process could prove to be volatile, warning against betting the farm too early on pro-cyclical currencies.
  • Tactical short USD bets should initially be played via the euro1 and Swedish krona.
  • The poor Canadian GDP report last week could be a harbinger for more data disappointments down the road.
  • Meanwhile, the dovish shift by the ECB could paradoxically be bullish for the euro beyond the near term.
  • Go short USD/SEK and buy EUR/CAD for a trade.

Feature

A currency exchange rate is simply a measure of relative prices between two countries. As such, the starting point for any currency forecast should be how those values are likely to evolve over time. For much of 2018, U.S. growth benefited from the impact of the Trump tax cuts, a boost to government spending agreed in January of that year, and the lagged effect of an easing in financial conditions from December 2016 to January 2018. Outside the U.S., what appeared to be idiosyncratic growth hiccups in both Europe and Japan finally morphed into full-blown slowdowns. Slower Chinese credit growth and the U.S.-China trade war were the ultimate straws that broke the camel’s back, deeply hurting global growth (Chart I-1). Consequently, the greenback surged.

Chart I-1
The Global Growth Slowdown Persists
Chart I-1

Fullscreen        Interactive Chart

Fading U.S. Dollar Tailwinds

At first glance, the picture remains largely similar today, with global growth still slowing and U.S. growth still outperforming. However, a key difference from last year is that U.S. growth leadership is set to give way to the rest of the world. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI peaked last August and has been steadily rolling over relative to its trading partners. The U.S. economic surprise index tells a similar story, with last month’s disappointing retail sales numbers nudging the series firmly below zero. Relative leading economic indices also suggest that U.S. growth momentum has slowed relative to the rest of the world. Historically, the relative growth differential between the U.S. and elsewhere has had a pretty good track record of dictating trends in the dollar (Chart I-2).

Chart I-2
U.S. Growth Leadership Might Soon End
Chart I-2

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Whether or not these trends persist beyond the first quarter will depend on the sustainability of China’s recent stimulus efforts. On the positive side, typical reflation indicators such as commodity prices, emerging market currencies, and industrial share prices have perked up in response to a nascent upturn in the credit impulse. On the other hand, policy shifts affect the economy with a lag, suggesting it is too early to tell whether the latest credit injection has been sufficient to turn around the Chinese economy, let alone the rest of the world. What is clear is that the bottoming processes tend to be volatile and protracted, suggesting it is still too early to bet the farm on pro-cyclical currencies. In the interim, investors could track the following indicators to help time a definitive turning point:

  • Whether or not easing liquidity conditions will lead to higher growth is often captured by the CRB Raw Industrial index-to-gold, copper-to-gold, and oil-to-gold ratios. It is encouraging that these also tend to move in lockstep with the U.S. bond yields, another global growth barometer. The power of the signal is established when all three indicators peak or bottom at the same time, as is the case now (Chart I-3). The next confirmation will come with a clear break-out in these ratios.

Chart I-3
Reflation Indicators Are Perking Up
Chart I-3

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  • Chinese M2 relative to GDP has bottomed. Historically, this ratio has lit a fire under cyclical stocks and, by extension, pro-cyclical currencies (Chart I-4). The growth rate is still at zero, meaning excess liquidity is not accelerating on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, our Emerging Markets team argues that broad credit growth is still decelerating.2 A break above the zero line, probably in the second half of this year, could be a catalyst to shift fully to a pro-cyclical currency stance.

Chart I-4
Chinese Excess Liquidity Improving
Chart I-4

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  • On a similar note, currencies in emerging Asia that sit closer to the epicenter of stimulus appear to have bottomed. If those in Latin America can follow suit, it would indicate that policy stimulus is sufficient, and the transmission mechanism is working (Chart I-5).

Chart I-5
EM Currencies Are Trying To Bottom
Chart I-5

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  • Finally, China-sensitive industrial commodities, especially metals and building materials, appear to have troughed and are perking up nicely. There was a supply-related issue with the Vale dam bursting in Brazil and a subsequent surge in iron-ore prices, but it is now clear that the entire industrial commodity complex has stopped falling (Chart I-6).

Chart I-6
Chinese Industrial Commodities Are Rallying
Chart I-6

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Be Selective On USD Shorts

Our strategy is to be selective as U.S. dollar tailwinds shift to headwinds, by initially expressing tactical USD shorts via the euro and the Swedish krona. Last week, we highlighted the fact that investors are currently too pessimistic on Europe’s growth prospects. More importantly, most of the factors that toppled European growth domestically – the implementation of new auto-emission standards in Germany, the rising cost of capital in Italy via exploding bond yields, and the populist Gilets Jaunes protests in France – are mostly behind us. Fiscal policy is also set to be loosened this year, and last year’s weakness in the euro will contribute to easier financial conditions. The improvement in European investor sentiment relative to current conditions could be a harbinger of positive euro area data surprises ahead (Chart I-7).

Chart I-7
Euro Zone Data Might Surprise To The Upside
Chart I-7

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The European Central Bank left rates unchanged at yesterday’s policy meeting but the decision for a new Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO III – or in other words, cheap loans), could be paradoxically bullish for the euro. If a central bank eases financing conditions at a time when growth is hitting a nadir, it is tough to argue that this is bearish for the currency.

Our Global Fixed Income team nailed the move by the ECB in this week’s report.3 European banks have been in the firing line of sluggish growth, negative interest rates, and increased regulatory scrutiny. In the case of Italy, an NPL ratio 9.4% is nearly triple that of the euro area. And with circa 10% of total bank lending in Spain and Italy funded by TLTROs, re-funding by the ECB is exactly what the doctor ordered.

In the case of the Sweden, the undervaluation of the krona has begun to mitigate the effects of negative interest rates – mainly a buildup of household leverage and an exodus of foreign direct investment.

  • The GDP report last week was well above expectations, with year-on-year growth of 2.4%. Encouragingly, this was driven by net exports rather than consumption.
  • The Swedish manufacturing PMI release for February was also very encouraging. Orders jumped from 50.4 to 54.0 while export orders jumped from 51.5 to 53.4.
  • The growth in wages is beginning to catch up to new borrowings, meaning domestic consumption could be increasingly financed through income. This will alleviate the need for the Riksbank to maintain an ultra-accommodative policy.

On a relative basis, the Swedish economy appears to have bottomed relative to that of the U.S., making the USD/SEK an attractive way to play USD downside. From a technical perspective, the cross is facing strong resistance at the triple top established from the 2009 highs around 9.45 (Chart I-8). Aggressive investors should begin accumulating short positions, while being cognizant of the negative carry.

Chart I-8
The Swedish Krona Looks Like A Buy
Chart I-8

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Bottom Line: Our favorite indicator for gauging ultimate downside in the dollar is the gold-to-bond ratio. Ever since the global financial crisis, gold has stood as a viable threat to dollar liabilities, capturing the ebb and flow of investor confidence in the greenback tick-for-tick (Chart I-9). Any sign that the balance of forces are moving away from the U.S. dollar will favor a breakout in the gold-to-bond ratio. For now, USD short positions should be played via the euro and Swedish krona.  

Chart I-9
Pay Close Attention To The Gold-To-Bond Ratio
Chart I-9

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Buy EUR/CAD For A Trade

Last week saw an extremely disappointing GDP report out of Canada, which prompted the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates on hold this week, followed by quite dovish commentary. In a 90-degree maneuver from its January policy statement that rates will need to rise over time, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz said the path for future increases had become “highly uncertain.”  

Like many central banks around the world, the BoC has been blindsided by the depth of the negative growth impulse outside its borders, which has begun to seep into the domestic economy. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the fourth quarter, the lowest in over two years. Capital expenditures collapsed at a rate of 2.7%, marking the third consecutive quarter of declines. The forward OIS curve is pricing in no rate hikes for Canada this year, meaning sentiment on the loonie is already depressed. However, our contention is that even if growth bottoms by the second half of this year, the Canadian dollar will offer little value to play this cyclical rebound.

Our recommendation is to play the loonie’s downside via the euro. First, valuations and balance-of-payment dynamics favor the euro versus the CAD on a long-term basis. Second, we estimate there is more scope for long-term interest rate expectations to rise in the euro area than in Canada (Chart I-10). European rates are further below equilibrium, and the ECB’s dovish shift will help lift the growth potential of the euro area. Meanwhile, the Canadian neutral rate will be heavily weighed down by the large stock of debt in the Canadian private sector, exacerbated by overvaluation in the housing market. This means that expectations in the 2-year forward market are likely to favor the euro versus the CAD.

Chart I-10
Buy EUR/CAD For A Trade
Chart I-10

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The biggest risk to this view is the price of oil. The EUR/CAD exchange rate is not as negatively correlated with oil as the USD/CAD, but nonetheless the CAD benefits more from rising oil prices than the euro does. BCA’s bullish oil view is a risk over the next six months. On the downside, the EUR/CAD could potentially test the bottom of the upward trending channel that has existed since 2012. This would put EUR/CAD in the vicinity of 1.45 (currently trading at 1.5049). However, initial upside resistance rests at the triple top a nudge above 1.6 (Chart I-11).

Chart I-11
EUR/CAD Technicals: Limited Downside
Chart I-11

Fullscreen        Interactive Chart

Meanwhile, economically, Canada is benefiting less from oil prices today than it has in the past. First, the Canadian oil benchmark trades at a large discount to Brent, and second, Canada is having trouble shipping its own oil at a moderate cost due to lack of pipeline capacity.4 

Bottom Line: Investors should buy the EUR/CAD for a trade. The Canadian dollar is likely to outperform its antipodean counterparts, but faces limited upside versus the U.S. dollar. There are better opportunities to play USD downside, namely via the Swedish krona and the euro.

Stand Aside On The Australian Dollar

For more than two decades, the Australian dollar has tended to be mostly driven by external conditions, especially the commodity cycle. But for the first time in several years, domestic factors have joined in to exert powerful downward pressure on the currency.

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has been on a mission to surgically deflate the overvalued housing market, while engineering a soft landing in the economy. Initially, their macro-prudential measures worked like a charm, as owner-occupied housing activity remained resilient relative to “investment-style” housing. What has become apparent now is that the soft landing intended by the authorities is rapidly morphing into a housing crash (Chart I-12).

Chart I-12
Australia: Anatomy Of A Hard Landing
Chart I-12

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In addition, the upcoming general election could exacerbate the risks to the country’s banks and the housing market.5 The center-left Labour Party, which has moved further to the left in this electoral cycle, has promised several regulatory changes. First, the Labour government would want to get rid of “negative gearing,” the practice of using investment properties that are generating losses to offset one’s income tax bill. Second, the capital gains tax exemption from selling properties will be reduced from 50% to 25%. Third, the Labour government would end the policy of reimbursing investors for the corporate tax paid by the company. This would end the incentive for retirees to own high dividend yielding equities, such as those of Australian banks.

This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates on hold and acknowledged risks to the housing market, but bank stocks suggest they remain well behind the curve (Chart I-13). The futures market is already pricing in 23 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, and the contention of our fixed income team is that more might be needed down the road. First, all the preconditions for a rate hike – underemployment below 8%, a rebound in Chinese economic activity and core CPI in the range of 2-3% – have not been met. The reality is that core CPI has lagged the target range since late-2015, and now faces downside risks.

Chart I-13
Australian Bank Stocks Are Pricing In A Curve Inversion
Chart I-13

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That said, a lot of the bad news already appears priced into the Australian dollar, which is down 14% from its 2018 peak, and 37% from its 2011 peak. This suggests outright short AUD bets are at risk from either upside surprises in global growth, or simply the forces of mean reversion (Chart I-14).

Chart I-14
Stand Aside On The Australian Dollar For Now
Chart I-14

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Bottom Line: Sentiment on the Aussie dollar is already bearish, warning against putting on fresh shorts. Our short AUD positions, expressed via the NZD and the CAD, are currently 6.74% and 1.99% in the money, respectively. Investors should hold onto these positions, but tighten stops to protect profits.

 

Chester Ntonifor
Foreign Exchange Strategist
chestern@bcaresearch.com

Footnotes

Currencies

U.S. Dollar

Chart II-1
USD Technicals 1
Chart II-1

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Chart II-2
USD Technicals 2
Chart II-2

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Recent data in the U.S. have been mixed:

  • Annualized Q4 GDP growth came in line with expectations at 2.6%, but both the Atlanta and New York Fed models suggest sub 1% growth in Q1 this year.
  • ISM manufacturing PMI missed expectations, falling to 54.2, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased to 59.7.
  • Q4 unit labor costs increased to 2%, surprising to the upside.

The DXY index has gained 1.17% this week. Upside on the dollar will be based on Fed’s capacity to continue tightening monetary policy later this year. However, there are increasing signs pointing to a weakening in leadership of U.S. growth this cycle, which could be a headwind for the counter-cyclical dollar.

Report Links:

  1. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019
  2. A Simple Attractiveness Ranking For Currencies - February 8, 2019
  3. Global Liquidity Trends Support The Dollar, But... - January 25, 2019

The Euro

Chart II-3
EUR Technicals 1
Chart II-3

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Chart II-4
EUR Technicals 2
Chart II-4

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Recent data in the euro area show some specter of stabilization:

  • Yearly consumer price inflation increased to 1.5%, in line with expectations.
  • Q4 GDP growth on a year-on-year basis fell to 1.1%, marginally in line.
  • Encouragingly, the Markit composite PMI increased to 51.9. The manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, while services PMI came in at 52.8. 
  • Finally, retail sales grew higher than expected, with a reading of 2.2%.

EUR/USD has fallen by 1.3% this week. The ECB kept interest rates on hold with a dovish tilt. Paradoxically, this could be bullish for the euro, if it allows growth to definitively bottom. Easing financial conditions in the euro area are reflationary and risks to the periphery have been curtailed.

Report Links:

  1. A Contrarian Bet On The Euro - March 1, 2019
  2. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019
  3. A Simple Attractiveness Ranking For Currencies - February 8, 2019

The Yen

Chart II-5
JPY Technicals 1
Chart II-5

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Chart II-6
JPY Technicals 2
Chart II-6

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Recent data in Japan have been mixed:

  • Yearly inflation surprised to the upside, coming in at 0.6%. The core inflation excluding fresh food also came in higher than expected at 1.1%.
  • January unemployment rate missed expectations, climbing to 2.5%; while the jobs-to-applicants ratio stayed at 1.63.
  • Nikkei manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside, coming in at 48.9.

USD/JPY has risen by 0.4% this week. While we are positive on the safe-haven yen on a structural basis, we struggle to see any near-term upside amid significant Japanese stock and bond outflows. We will be discussing the outlook for the yen in an upcoming report.

Report Links:

  1. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019
  2. A Simple Attractiveness Ranking For Currencies - February 8, 2019
  3. Yen Fireworks - January 4, 2019

British Pound

Chart II-7
GBP Technicals 1
Chart II-7

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Chart II-8
GBP Technicals 2
Chart II-8

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Recent data in the U.K. have been improving:

  • February consumer confidence came in at -13, slightly higher than expectations.
  • Markit manufacturing PMI came in at 52, in line with expectations; while the services PMI surprised to the upside, coming in at 51.3.
  • The Halifax house price index surprised to the upside, rising 5.9% mom in February.

GBP/USD has fallen by 1.2% this week. During the speech on March 5, the Bank of England governor Mark Carney highlighted the market underestimates the potential for interest rate hikes. Overall, we remain bullish on the pound in the long-term, but volatility is set to rise in the near term as we approach the Brexit March 29 deadline.

Report Links:

  1. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019
  2. A Simple Attractiveness Ranking For Currencies - February 8, 2019
  3. Deadlock In Westminster - January 18, 2019

Australian Dollar

Chart II-9
AUD Technicals 1
Chart II-9

Fullscreen        Interactive Chart

Chart II-10
AUD Technicals 2
Chart II-10

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Recent data in Australia have been dismal:

  • The RBA commodity price index advanced by 9.1% year-on-year in February, but this was supply related.
  • Building permits continue to contract at 29% year-on-year.
  • Finally, the annualized Q4 GDP growth fell to 0.2%, more than 50% below expectations.

AUD/USD fell by 1.2% this week. The RBA kept the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. Governor Philip Lowe acknowledged the downside risks to the housing market and overall economy, and warned about the “significant uncertainties around the forecast.” That said, AUD/USD has fallen by a 13% since the January 2018 highs, warning against establishing fresh shorts at this juncture.

Report Links:

  1. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019
  2. A Simple Attractiveness Ranking For Currencies - February 8, 2019
  3. CAD And AUD: Jumping Higher To Plunge Deeper - February 1, 2019

New Zealand Dollar

Chart II-11
NZD Technicals 1
Chart II-11

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Chart II-12
NZD Technicals 2
Chart II-12

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Recent data in New Zealand have been mixed:

  • Seasonally adjusted building permits increased 16.5% month-on-month in January, a huge jump.
  • However, the ANZ activity business confidence dropped to -30.9.
  • Most importantly, terms of trade fell to -3% in the fourth quarter, underperforming expectations.

NZD/USD depreciated by 0.9% this week. The key for the Kiwi will be a pickup in agricultural commodity prices, which remain in a definitive bear market.

Report Links:

  1. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019
  2. A Simple Attractiveness Ranking For Currencies - February 8, 2019
  3. Updating Our Intermediate Timing Models - November 2, 2018

Canadian Dollar

Chart II-13
CAD Technicals 1
Chart II-13

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Chart II-14
CAD Technicals 2
Chart II-14

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Recent data in Canada have been disappointing:

  • Q4 current account balance has deteriorated, coming in at C$ -15.48 billion.
  • Moreover, annualized Q4 GDP growth missed analysts’ forecast, coming in at 0.4%.
  • Finally, the Markit manufacturing PMI weakened to 52.6 in February.

USD/CAD has gained 2.1% this week. The BoC kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% given that domestic economic conditions have now coupled to the downside with a bleak external picture. The caveat for the Canadian dollar is that rising oil prices could provide some support.

Report Links:

  1. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019
  2. A Simple Attractiveness Ranking For Currencies - February 8, 2019
  3. CAD And AUD: Jumping Higher To Plunge Deeper - February 1, 2019

 

Swiss Franc

Chart II-15
CHF Technicals 1
Chart II-15

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Chart II-16
CHF Technicals 2
Chart II-16

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Recent data in Switzerland have been negative:

  • Annualized Q4 GDP growth missed analysts’ expectations by 50%, coming in at 0.2%. 
  • In addition, the retail sales contracted 0.4% year-on-year.
  • Lastly, CPI was in line at 0.6%, but this is a far cry from the March 2018 peak.

EUR/CHF has been flat this week. Overall, we are bullish EUR/CHF on a cyclical basis. Stabilization in global growth will make safe-haven currencies like the franc less attractive. In addition, the foreign direct investment and portfolio investment outflows from Switzerland should put more downward pressure on the franc.

Report Links:

  1. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019
  2. A Simple Attractiveness Ranking For Currencies - February 8, 2019
  3. Waiting For A Real Deal - December 7, 2018

Norwegian Krone

Chart II-17
NOK Technicals 1
Chart II-17

Fullscreen        Interactive Chart

Chart II-18
NOK Technicals 2
Chart II-18

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Recent data in Norway have been mixed:

  • Monthly unemployment rate fell to 2.5%, in line with expectations.
  • However, the Q4 current account balance fell to 46.8 billion from 91.36 billion in Q3.
  • The manufacturing PMI has been stable for a few months now, coming in at 56.3 for the month of February.

USD/NOK increased by 2.2% this week. We are optimistic on the NOK on a structural basis, given the positive outlook for oil prices. Moreover, the NOK is undervalued and trading at a large discount to its long-term fair value.

Report Links:

  1. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019
  2. A Simple Attractiveness Ranking For Currencies - February 8, 2019
  3. Global Liquidity Trends Support The Dollar, But... - January 25, 2019

Swedish Krona

Chart II-19
SEK Technicals 1
Chart II-19

Fullscreen        Interactive Chart

Chart II-20
SEK Technicals 2
Chart II-20

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Recent data in Sweden have been positive:

  • Retail sales was in line with expectations at 0.8% month-on-month.
  • However, annualized Q4 GDP growth was double expectations at 1.2%.
  • The February manufacturing PMI also came in higher at 52.5.
  • In addition, industrial production yearly growth came in higher at 3.4%.
  • Lastly, the Q4 current account balance increased to 39.6 billion.

USD/SEK increased by 2% this week. The SEK is still trading at a large discount to its long-term fair value. We remain bearish on USD/SEK on a structural basis as we see many signs pointing to a recovery in the Swedish economy, which is a tailwind for the Swedish krona.  

Report Links:

  1. Balance Of Payments Across The G10 - February 15, 2019
  2. A Simple Attractiveness Ranking For Currencies - February 8, 2019
  3. Global Liquidity Trends Support The Dollar, But... - January 25, 2019

Trades & Forecasts

Forecast Summary

VERSUS THE DOLLAR 3 MONTHS 9 MONTHS
AUSTRALIAN DOLLARUPDOWN
BRITISH POUNDUPUP
CANADIAN DOLLARUPDOWN
EUROUPDOWN
JAPANESE YENFLATFLAT
NEW ZEALAND DOLLARUPDOWN
SWISS FRANCFLATDOWN
VERSUS THE EURO 3 MONTHS 9 MONTHS
BRITISH POUNDFLATUP
JAPANESE YENDOWNUP
NORWEGIAN KRONEUPUP
SWEDISH KRONAUPUP
SWISS FRANCDOWNDOWN
NOTE: NEW FORECASTS ARE SHOWN IN ITALICS.

Core Portfolio

TRADES* INITIATION
DATE
INCEPTION
LEVEL
TARGET
RATE
STOP
LOSS
PERCENT RETURNS
SPOT CARRY** TOTAL
Short NZD/CAD2019-02-220.9000.8000.927-1.02-0.01-1.02
Long NOK/SEK2019-01-251.0581.1201.0371.760.151.91
Long EUR/CHF2018-12-071.13011.201.110.120.10.22
Short AUD/NZD2017-10-201.1101.0361.3356.40.336.74
Short EUR/CZK2016-10-2127.01924.50026.4785.060.345.4
Short AUD/CAD2016-09-160.9865NANA4.25-2.261.99
NOTE: CHANGES DENOTED IN ITALICS. [+] DENOTES ADDING TO EXISTING POSITION.
* LONG DENOTES BUYING THE FIRST CURRENCY VERSUS THE SECOND. SHORT DENOTES SELLING THE FIRST CURRENCY VERSUS THE SECOND.
** ASSUMES A 13-WEEK FORWARD CONTRACT ROLLOVER UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED.

Tactical Trades

TRADES* INITIATION
DATE
INCEPTION
LEVEL
TARGET
RATE
STOP
LOSS
PERCENT RETURNS
SPOT CARRY** TOTAL
Long EUR/CAD2019-03-081.50491.651.45N/AN/AN/A
Short USD/SEK2019-03-089.46798.89.6N/AN/AN/A
Short AUD/NOK2018-12-076.15645.86.330.17-0.28-0.11
NOTE: CHANGES DENOTED IN ITALICS. [+] DENOTES ADDING TO EXISTING POSITION.
* LONG DENOTES BUYING THE FIRST CURRENCY VERSUS THE SECOND. SHORT DENOTES SELLING THE FIRST CURRENCY VERSUS THE SECOND.
** ASSUMES A 13-WEEK FORWARD CONTRACT ROLLOVER UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED.

Closed Trades

Trades Closed in 2016
POSITION INCEPTION
LEVEL
INITIATION
DATE
CLOSING
DATE
REALIZED
P&L
SHORT GBP/JPY191.93JUL 24/15JAN 08/169.8%
SHORT NZD/USD0.6683OCT 30/15FEB 05/16-1.2%
LONG USD/CAD1.3373MAR 04/16MAR 18/16-2.5%
LONG AUD/NZD1.1084JUL 10/15JUN 03/16-4.9%
LONG CAD/JPY85.13APR 14/16JUN 17/16-3.8%
SHORT EUR/JPY139.15JUN 19/15JUN 24/1613.8%
SHORT GBP/JPY171.79JAN 08/16JUN 24/168.4%
LONG EUR/USD1.0956DEC 04/15JUN 24/163.2%
LONG EUR/GBP0.7239DEC 04/15JUN 24/165.5%
LONG EUR/(USD+GBP)100DEC 04/15JUN 24/164.4%
LONG GBP/CHF1.3682APR 14/16JUN 24/165.8%
SHORT USD/JPY122.65NOV 13/15JUN 24/1616.0%
SHORT GBP/SEK13.1273NOV 06/15JUL 08/1613.5%
LONG GBP/JPY136.515JUL 01/16JUL 08/16-3.3%
SHORT USD/SEK8.18005JUN 10/16JUL 22/165.1%

Trades Closed in 2017
POSITION INCEPTION
LEVEL
INITIATION
DATE
CLOSING
DATE
REALIZED
P&L
SHORT CAD/NOK6.44JAN 06/17JAN 13/17-1.23%
SHORT AUD/JPY84.79JAN 06/17JAN 20/17-2.50%
SHORT AUD/NZD1.0511FEB 03/17FEB 24/17-1.97%
SHORT EUR/SEK9.48FEB 10/17MAR 03/17-1.06%
SHORT EUR/NOK9.7088FEB 12/17MAR 10/178.01%
SHORT EUR/AUD1.38MAY 10/17MAY 10/176.90%
SHORT EUR/GBP0.8375APR 21/17MAY 19/17-2.43%
SHORT USD/JPY115.7JAN 06/17JUN 16/174.25%
LONG DXY INDEX97.9MAY 19/17JUN 30/17-2.04%
SHORT NZD/JPY84.36MAY 26/17JUL 07/17-2.98%
LONG CAD/NOK6.2213MAY 26/17JUL 14/174.20%
SHORT EUR/CHF1.0833MAY 05/17JUL 14/17-1.57%
SHORT (NZD+AUD+NOK+CAD)/USD100.000SEP 16/16JUL 21/17-3.65%
SHORT EUR/CAD1.5132MAY 19/17JUL 28/173.70%
SHORT EUR/USD1.1682JUL 28/17AUG 4/17-1.15%
SHORT AUD/SEK6.8515OCT 18/16SEP 22/175.40%
SHORT EUR/SEK9.76JUN 16/17NOV 17/17-1.48%
SHORT EUR/NOK9.48JUN 23/17DEC 01/17-2.21%

Trades Closed in 2018
POSITION INCEPTION
LEVEL
INITIATION
DATE
CLOSING
DATE
REALIZED
P&L
SHORT EURO/JPY132NOV 10/17JAN 19/18-2.24%
LONG EUR/NOK9.9044DEC 01/17JAN 19/183.40%
SHORT RUR/JPY133.79JAN 12/18FEB 2/18-2.24%
LONG USD/JPY109.22AUG 11/17FEB 16/18-1.23%
LONG CAD/SEK6.6NOV 10/17FEB 23/18-1.76%
SHORT CAD/NOK6.398JAN 12/18MAR 16/184.53%
SHORT NZD/JPY82.36JUL 07/17MAR 30/186.10%
SHORT EUR/SEK10.01FEB 23/18APR 6/18-2.93%
LONG NOK/SEK1.0163DEC 15/17MAY 11/188.93%
SHORT GBP/USD1.403MAR 30/18JUN 01/185.47%
SHORT EUR/CAD1.562APR 06/18JUN 08/182.38%
SHORT EUR/CAD1.519JUN 15/18JUN 29/18-2.12%
SHORT NOK/SEK1.076JUN 15/18JUN 29/18-1.34%
SHORT EUR/CHF1.179APR 06/18AUG 03/182.00%
LONG DXY INDEX89.7FEB 23/18SEP 07/186.51%
LONG USD/CAD1.3167JUL 13/18OCT 26/180.91%
SHORT GBP/NZD1.9892OCT 19/18NOV 16/186.11%
LONG NZD/USD0.6519OCT 12/18NOV 16/184.77%
SHORT CAD/NOK6.3293OCT 19/18NOV 23/18-2.16%

Trades Closed in 2019
POSITION INCEPTION
LEVEL
INITIATION
DATE
CLOSING
DATE
REALIZED
P&L
SHORT EUR/GBP0.8975DEC 14/18JAN 25/193.23%