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Equities vs Bonds: Who’s Right About Global Growth?

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BCA Research has been composing original insights that lead to market action and shape the conviction of its clients for over 70 years.

Global Strategist, Caroline Miller, outlines that the recent plunge in global bond yields has underwritten relative stability in equity markets amid weak global growth and trade policy tribulations. Central banks’ coordinated, dovish pivot reflects an asymmetric approach to risk management in a low inflation, zero-lower-bound constrained rate environment:


  • What is the outlook for global growth in general, and China in particular? How are fiscal and monetary policy there likely to evolve given uncertainty over the outlook for the global trade?
  • How close is the U.S. economy to the end of an already extended business cycle? What signposts should investors watch to determine whether current monetary settings are reflationary or restrictive?
  • Will the Fed ratify market expectations for monetary easing given the current macro backdrop? How will the divergence between the relatively sanguine tone in risk asset markets and the recession alert from bond markets resolve itself?
  • Over the second half of 2019 and into 2020, what asset allocation and currency strategy makes sense?

Chief Strategist

Caroline Miller

Caroline is currently BCA’s Chief Strategist, Global Strategy. Since joining BCA in 2012, Caroline has had a cross functional role to both contribute to and shape the global research view while communicating this message to BCA clients at an executive level.

Prior to joining BCA, she spent twenty years as an institutional global fixed income asset manager. She was an Executive Director and Portfolio Manager within UBS Global Asset Management’s multi-asset team. Prior to that, she managed global fixed income portfolios at La Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec and at J.P. Morgan Investment Management in London. Caroline started her career as a global fixed income and currency analyst at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. in Boston. Caroline holds an MBA in Finance from INSEAD, a BA in History from Harvard University, and is a CFA charterholder.