Shape Your Conviction™  

Global Investment Strategy

When do slowdowns turn into recessions?

July 12 2019

Slowdowns are much more likely to turn into recessions when significant economic and financial imbalances are present. The U.S. does not currently suffer from any of the major imbalances that have historically heralded recessions. The combination of ongoing Chinese stimulus and the lagged effect from lower bond yields will lift global growth during the coming months.

Geopolitical Strategy

The Polybius Solution

July 04 2019

Over the next six-to-18 months, the trade war with China should reaccelerate while the U.S. should back away from war with Iran. But for now Persian Gulf risks are coming to the fore. A full-fledged cold war with China will put a cap on American political polarization, putting China at a disadvantage. By contrast, a U.S. war with Iran would exacerbate polarization, giving China a huge strategic opportunity.

Emerging Markets Strategy

Does EM always outperform in the long run?

March 14 2019

None of the individual EM bourses has outperformed DM on a consistent basis over the past 40 years. EM share performance has exhibited long-term cycles of around seven to 10 years. Getting these cycles right is instrumental to successful investing. EM investing is primarily about exchange rates. We also publish analysis on South Africa’s public debt sustainability.